CAPE
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Looking at the latest LR global means, some significant changes up top. Lots of blue, and CFS weeklies continue that through November. The -NAO period was possibly just a transitional thing. The CFS run of indicating HL help for the winter months seems to have finally ended. Its h5 depiction for DJF aligns with most other climate/seasonals now. Has a +AO/NAO throughout. The mean EPAC ridge location/orientation could be worse though. Actually has hints of an EPO ridge, esp for late winter. fwiw.
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It likes to do this in the LR.
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1.33" today. Might be another quick shot of rain tonight with that sharp shortwave moving through.
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Moderate rain and 54 here. 0.45" so far.
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All the mesos, CMC, ICON now have a pretty sharp cutoff along I-95 as the Euro has been advertising. 6z GFS still has some decent rain(0.2 - 0.3") northwest of there.
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Dover radar appears to be dead again.
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Pouring here.
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Boilerplate. I guess it's as good as anything else for a general winter outlook.
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Good man. This is why there are very few pumpkin beers I like. Too many badly done ones that nauseate me about halfway through the first one. I like the DFH Punkin Ale more than I have in the past.. It has a decent hint of cloves and a bit of cinnamon, but not at all overwhelming.
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Patchy frost in the forecast here for Sat night. Lowest temp so far is 41.
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Great name and artwork. Yours will probably be better, although that is probably my fav overall. What spices are going to be prominent?
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Up to an inch is acceptable. No water laying around, so they aren't bad, The cold nights will do them in hopefully.
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Looking forward to the 'new normal' Nina beach blizzard this January.
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There are other factors/indices that influence snowfall here in a given winter, as you well know.
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On a bit of a Nina roll there. Can we make it 3 for 3 on Jan beach snowstorms? Never know.
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Trends are drier here too, which is fine with me. Still looks like a half inch or so.
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Looks wet for eastern areas yet again for the end of the week. Some sort of anafrontal deal.
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It all depends on the phase/amplitude of the longwave pattern. Euro amps the PAC ridge and digs the trough in out west, with +heights building downstream over the east. GFS is more progressive. Euro led the way back in September with the highly amped pattern, digging the trough into the 4 corners region and giving the Denver area snow. GFS was initially less amped/more progressive with that energy.
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If the Euro/EPS is correct, our cool down will be brief, with a return to relatively toasty temps by mid next week.
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Unless it is a legit, sustained west-based block- but that is unlikely to occur unless the AO is also negative. I guess there is some possibility the mean Pac ridge is close enough to the west coast in early winter to pop a +PNA for a time. Some of the climate models have suggested this before the Pac goes to total crap by mid winter. Latest CFS runs have backed off on that idea, and also any semblance of HL help. It is starting to get a clue.
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This is true but one thing to consider here is the official method for measuring the AO and NAO phases(surface based), vs the sensible weather impacts we associate with the h5 heights in those domains. They mostly should be aligned, but not always.
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The 840 hour GEFS looking good for mid November.
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60 F here and still breezy/cloudy. Total rainfall 1.51" An underperformer here for once!
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They generally are all depicting a 'typical Nina' look, and we are clearly in a Nina. People get too locked into these monthly means though, as if the h5 pattern will always look like a LR smoothed mean in real time lol. Ultimately, we just cant know, and there will be some chances even if the winter does overall end up a dumpster fire.
