CAPE

One topic I teach is flow measurement principles and methods.. there is a technique based on vortex shedding- the Karman Vortex street. Cool stuff, and a phenomena observed on all scales, atmosphere included. There is also a Coriolis Mass flow meter that is very commonly used in industry, and I get to go off on a tangent and explain how the principle of operation has nothing to do with the actual Coriolis effect lol. Easy to incorporate weather into my lessons.

It is for sure. I'm not sure I could teach high school lol.

It kinda went that way!

Engineering courses. I get to teach the fun stuff- industrial automation and networking. Our students all work on big ships- merchant marines and US Navy predominately- and a few other commercial customers from the maritime industry.

I just finished converting a course to online format. That may be the only one, as our courses have major lab components, and/or physical assessments. Students really need to be here to complete the courses we offer. We will see how this goes. Cant account for everything, and ofc there is human nature, and nature of this virus. It could always go badly, as it has in several places on a larger scale when people don't comply with the simple, painless, and proven methods for minimizing spread.

I am a bit of a drama queen. We are back in session here, running well below capacity. Not your typical school. The "kids" are at least early 20s. We have folks come here from all over. At least one dude here is from Texas, and a few from California. Quite a few staff and adjunct instructors here I know are high risk, should they get infected. The COVID policy is pretty solid, but there are things I don't like.

Just looking back at 2017-18, the QBO(u30) was moving into the negative phase in Fall and stayed significantly negative through the winter. That winter was decent wrt cold outbreaks/anomalous cold, at least for Dec and Jan. I think that was technically a moderate Nina, but the QBO influence on the tendency for cold that winter may have been real. The previous winter, also a Nina, QBO was moving into positive territory and stayed positive, and it was more the typical Nina eastern US torch. Again this is cherry picking one index in isolation, and so it is always difficult to determine the actual impact. The character of the Nina events were quite different between those 2 winters.

Probably not worth doing any reanalysis at this point, but maybe he included 'cold' neutral years as well as weak Ninas. The sensible impact of the QBO generally seems nebulous, unreliable, and likely gets overwhelmed by other factors in reality. Looking at the 30mb trends, it also appears to be moving in the "wrong" direction currently.

I don't think its the bay. Loss of daytime heating with not much going on frontal wise or upstairs to keep it going is more likely.

Still 85. Too bad that line of storms is heading south of here.

Looking at the means, seems we get a bit of a break from the "big heat" beginning late this week into the weekend, plus a potentially more stormy pattern? Impressive upper ridging develops over the mid west- which is suggestive of some notable changes here, at least for a few days.

When I looked at the op earlier it was pretty much the same as yesterday- most of the action later this week was south of our area, but maybe a tad further north.

Dew point is still high though. 78.

High here was 94. Forecast high was 98. Bit of a bust, considering today was supposed to be "worse" than yesterday. 91 currently.

Yes, I believe this is correct.

Plenty of those around here. They don't work too well in the woods though lol.

Here it is- From DT at WxRisk.. The context is QBO values from -10 to -20 for DJF.

77 at 530 am

^Pretty sure that's exactly the one I have.

Yes in general, but I am pretty sure I saw somewhere that during a weak Nina, a significantly negative QBO for the winter months mitigated the usual warm departures for the eastern US. I will see if I can find it. Either way, it doesn't look good wrt the QBO, as it appears it will be heading into positive territory going forward.

Any rain? Latest op runs looks pretty shiit in general for most of the region.

Sorry. It's busy.

And you made this post just before melting. We have enjoyed your contributions.

It was a "your back yard" special. It quickly disintegrated. Even in an epic heat wave with sinking air all over, you manage to score.