CAPE

Its not decadal. Unless you mean we see a -NAO an average of once a decade lol. That's probably about right over recent decades. There may be some cyclical nature to it, but with a longer period. The NAO has been predominantly positive since the early 1980s. The 40-50 year period preceding that, there were more negative phase years than positive. IIRC, the frequency of ++NAO years has increased since the early 1990s. Somewhere in this thread I posted a long term time series of the NAO phase (or maybe it was the AO) for the winter months. I cant find it atm. There is a significant correlation between the AO and NAO though. A legit -NAO (not transient bootleg crap) typically occurs when the AO is negative.

We should be beyond the point of having to use disclaimers on this stuff,, but the climate models are what they are, and ofc we are looking at projected mean patterns. No, we should not expect wall to wall winter(probably ever), but otoh, there will likely be a few weeks within climo winter with some cold and chances for winter weather, even in an overall crappy pattern.

The October (full edition) of the CanSIPS is now out. Looking at the monthly h5 height anomalies, it is pretty much a dumpster fire for DJF. The EPAC ridge is a one eyed pig throughout, but gets worse for Jan and esp Feb. Eastern ridge, and no help up top. Temp anomalies for DJF-

This will surely work out well come January.

28.3" here since July 1. 51" for the year so far. Give me a couple months of below normal precip, before juicing up again for Dec. Don't wanna miss out on the cold rain.

1.10" total here. Glad it 'underperformed'. 10.25" for Sept

This is what I use. Its a bit pricey when you have a larger area to do(like I just did) but it is very effective and I despise straw, so worth it.

CFS continues to be pretty gung ho on HL blocking for winter, with the Pac looking decent for December. Even when it gets pretty ugly by Feb, a -NAO saves us from an all out torch. Fwiw ofc.

Curious to see what the new 500 mb anomalies look like. Probably be available in 2-3 days.

0.45" here already today ahead of the main show. Hopefully it underperforms here for once.

Yeah and with Roman's "game plan", there was not much chance they were going to get a lead. Defense was terrible too- no pass rush without blitzing, and breakdowns all over the place in the secondary. This stuff was supposed to have been corrected in the offseason.

Ravens were severely outcoached and outclassed. I am starting to really dislike Roman as OC. That "game plan" was pathetic, and looked a lot like the Titans game. Score easily could have been 42-13. Washington's talented DL will have a field day next week against the Raven's mediocre OL.

Still looking like 1-2" here through Wed. Hopefully no more than that. Sitting at 9.15" for September currently.

Progressive is good. Not looking forward to more heavy rain. Hope it is correct. I am looking forward to Fall weather with abundant sunshine returning later in the week.

Picked up 0.41" of rain overnight. Not sure where it came from. I guess I wasn't paying attention, but last I saw there was a 20% chance of showers.

I may hit 12" by Wed here. Crazy. Pushing 9" now.

I don't think either one of us are crazy about the 12z Euro. Too much over this way and not enough up your way. Cant wait for the cooler and drier weather after this event.

Texans look determined early on in this game. They haven't played great, but cant be happy with their first 3 games being KC. BAL. and PIT. Take it out on the Steelers!

12z CMC keeps the heavy stuff down in eastern VA and NC. A general half to 1.5" for N VA and most of MD. It has been more progressive than the GFS and Euro though, so probably not correct.

Amazing shot! Quite a contrast.

I like the 12z NAM better with the heavier rain distribution.

GFS is trending in the right direction the last few runs for @losetoa6 Way too wet here for my liking though.

73 here and cloudy, but the sun has made brief appearances a few times.

This grossness has overstayed its welcome. Our fall preview period seems pretty far in the rear view mirror, even though its only been a week. A few more days of this garbage and we can get back to some refreshing Canadian air with low dew points.

Have had a few hundredths here overnight. Total since late Friday night is 0.88"