CAPE

Ha I doubt it. Tua is da man there now.

Technically we should cheer for the Steelers lol. Looks like Buffalo will win their division though at this point with Miami getting their arses kicked, so probably not a factor in the Ravens chances to secure a playoff spot.

The Browns will be highly motivated after the early season beatdown. Neither defense is coming off of inspiring efforts, to say the least. Campbell looked really limited last week, so not sure he will be much of a factor.The Ravens need to find a way to recapture their pass rush though. Yannik...hello...ya there bro??

Yeah the battles in the trenches will be key. Hopefully Andrews plays and can be effective, and I think Snead is back. Ravens really do have severe limitations in their passing game though, compared to the downfield weapons the Browns have. Too bad Dez cant play. I guess Boykin will have to be the man lol.

Damn KC has exploded in this game. Not sure if any team is going to beat them in crunch time.

It's going to be a tough game. Browns are playing really well. Ravens will have some key players back, and hopefully they can run the ball effectively. The O line has been a revolving door, but maybe they have finally settled on a set lineup that is workable.

This panel isn't very useful. Back edge is moving through and the low is pulling away.

I guess I am watching this and pulling for KC. Ravens need lots of help. Ofc they need to help themselves too. Probably need to win out to have a realistic chance.

KC-MIA game is pretty entertaining so far.

Time for a beer. Off to banter.

I approve. Now get Forky on here to tell us how this will happen.

For those on the SE edge, the EPS has improved slightly over the last couple runs. We just need about 8-10 more ticks and we good to go!

Its just an indication of sinking air adjacent to the strong lift in the fronto banding. The exact location of these features will be fun to track and pin down on the mesos pretty soon. Ofc we all pretty much know where the best banding will set up.

Yes I know, thus why I got "turned on" and posted it. lol.

Probably not. Looks like 33-34 at the surface is as warm as gets.

Who cares what the wonky surface maps look like. This looks interesting.

12z CMC has a more prominent primary than in recent runs.

That hard right turn of the coastal low is critical for eastern areas. Need it to happen a tad sooner/further south, instead of over OC.

The gradient along the R-S line looks to be razor sharp. If I get 4" in my yard a 10 mile drive in either direction may go from zero to 10". All comes down to the deformation band over here. Looks to weaken as it translates E/NE on the GFS.

It will, but for the lowlands it will get scoured out if that low track is tucked in for a time as advertised. At that point its a matter of how much time elapses before the colder air gets back in. A lot of elements in play there depending on one's exact location and developing dynamics. Baltimore will probably warm above freezing but it may be fairly brief compared to areas further SE. Are you in the northern part of the city?

The NAM at range is kinda like a EURO mini-me.

Good synopsis from Mount Holly this morning- 00Z Guidance retains rather impressive run-to-run consistency with respect to timing, track, and associated thermal profiles with the low, and this is perhaps helped by the progressive hemispheric pattern which tends to favor more predictability than amplified blocking patterns. Consequently despite considerable uncertainty regarding the details of this system (more on that below) do have higher than average confidence that at least portions of our area will see potentially significant impacts from this system. The one thing to point out is that the mid-lvl wave associated with this system is still over the Pacific which does favor at least some caution in becoming too confident although modern Data Assimilation is fairly robust even in regions of observational sparsity. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you look at it from my perspective) it is too early to get specific about ptypes and snow amounts, as the low`s track near to the coast will almost certainly result in some ptype transition zone. Furthermore this transition zone will likely ebb and flow as mesoscale lift (e.g. FGEN) results in dynamical cooling. That being said the antecedent airmass does look primed for wintry precipitation, with pre-storm dewpoints likely in the single digits or low- teens which should support some fairly notable wet-bulbing with the first batch of precip. The question then becomes can the intensity of the precipitation and associated dynamical cooling become enough to offset the increasing warm advection associated with the low? The next question is how robust will precipitation be on the back side of the low Wednesday night as it pulls away from the area, and cold advection begins? We should have more answers to these questions in the next couple days we enter the Mesoscale model window.

The CAD will look good at the beginning, but one thing you learn living here is how quickly it can be overcome with marine warmth when there is an easterly fetch. If we had a true blocking pattern with an ideal slow moving/quasi stationary 50-50 low, the cold would stay more locked in here, and it would probably just sleet for a time rather than rain.

Gotta have some backside love over here. Did I just send out an RR signal?

This is what eastern areas need to get some decent snow from this event.