CAPE
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Here is the picture at the surface-
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The tropical low is going to miss east, and high pressure from eastern Canada will have an opening to build southward down the east coast. With that, the upper low will dig and cutoff well west. The good rains will be in the mountains south and west of our region. SW burbs of DC have the best chance in the metro area of seeing some decent rain this week, while places further north and east, like my yard, its gonna be paltry.
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I called this one early. Not what I wanted, just kinda saw it coming Need some rain here.
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That High off the NE coast shifted the flow here to ENE, and it cooled down quickly last evening. 53 currently with some fog.
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66 here now. Awesome evening.
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Perfect weather for mojitos, esp with fresh mint!
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WPC QPF from earlier today, and then just updated, through D7.. Right idea, but the overall amounts may very well be too high for eastern parts of our region still. More adjustments likely with recent model trends.
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I have a few oaks I need taken down, and too close to the house to do it myself. Not dead, just too close and a pain in the ass, always dropping small branches and tree debris on the roof. I have a hydraulic log splitter, so I will have them taken down and cut to length, and left behind to split for firewood. Probably wait until Fall.
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Down to 80 here. The big difference is the drier air advecting in. Nice and breezy too. Quite a bit more comfortable now compared to around noontime.
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Its gotten nicer here this afternoon. 82 but the dew points have dropped- down to 55 now. I'll give it an 8.5/10 tho. Remember I am intrinsically a cold and bitter person.
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Pretty much the outcome I expected lol. I watered yesterday, and I will be probably watering again on Monday or Tuesday..
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As depicted its a closed upper low that is becoming cut off, possibly becoming nearly stationary. Those generally weaken as the low becomes stacked and more detached from the strong thermal boundaries, and the upper level divergence weakens. The longer it sits and spins SW of us, the lower the chance of seeing more than some bouts of showers on the NE side. But yes, still some uncertainty with multiple pieces of energy- one of (sub)tropical origin- and an expansive ridge up top.
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81, and a tad humid. I'm ready for a few days of cool and mostly cloudy, with some rain sprinkled in here and there.
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Not really my wish- I am always in for an interesting weather period, and I don't really mind wet and cool for a few days, given what lies just ahead. Starting around this time of year my soil dries out real quick if it doesn't rain for a week. But yeah I have seen the possibility for an "in between" scenario, and it seems to becoming more prevalent on guidance in some recent runs.
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This has been my thinking. The UL will do most of the "damage", and it will be an area of heavy rain mainly west of the metros. Most of the good rains end by Tuesday evening. Then as the low weakens and meanders, keeps things mostly cloudy and cool-ish with scattered showers mid to late week. The subtropical low has little impact, other than producing sinking air for eastern areas until it gets shunted further east.
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NAM has been looking that way too. Subsidence FTL (or win) depending on your perspective. Here is an indication of which way I have been leaning with expectations- I watered my grass last evening/this morning.
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Still plenty of uncertainty with the low interactions and the big upper ridge to the north.
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Not the best time of the year to plant grass seed, but good luck. And you know this will not be a week of wet weather. Probably the best chance of significant rain (some place in the region) is Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond that it will probably be mostly cloudy and cool, with some showers around, if that upper low meanders for a few days.
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Tracks the Atlantic low straight up the coast.
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lol 6z GFS.
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I made chicken tikka masala in a slow cooker a while back and it turned out delicious and smelled awesome.
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Yeah I have to be in the mood for those. I always liked the Flying Dog "The Fear" Imperial Pumpkin ale. About 9% abv.
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Yeah the pumpkin is decent. I am not a big fan of those type beers overall. Hard to do well. RAR has a great one, but you have to find it on tap. Its called Big Lizz. Brewed with locally grown butternut squash. Cult Classic has a very good oatmeal stout and a high gravity dark ale that is very stout like. I love their IPAs, esp the fruity/hazy one. I forget what they call it.
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Yeah I was concerned if they would be able to survive. Relatively new brewery but they have a great product. I was a regular. Hopefully they can make it.
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Looks good. Good to see Cult Classic is doing ok. I miss going there and having a flight. They literally just got their kitchen going when the covid shit started.
