CAPE

A potentially very wet period upcoming, especially if the remnants of Ida pass over the region. With our extended summer season just beginning, get used to dealing with the mosquitoes well into October. Hopefully the Fall season will begin early this year, maybe by early November.

Central and NE MD are in the slight risk area for excessive rain.

Nice discussion by Mount Holly on the heavy rain potential for today into tonight- A rather interesting meteorological setup exists today for the Mid-Atlantic region. A large-scale midlevel ridge initially centered in the western Atlantic will retrogress slowly to the Carolina coast by 12z Saturday as it aligns with transient ridging in southeast Canada. Meanwhile, a convectively-augmented vort max will migrate slowly clockwise on the northern periphery of the ridge, generally from the eastern Ohio Valley and central Appalachians this morning to the northern Mid- Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Large-scale lift in advance of the meandering vort max will likely prove sufficient to generate scattered to numerous storms during the afternoon in our CWA via diurnal destabilization. Although there is subtle synoptic forcing as addressed above, subsynoptic lifting mechanisms will be rather weak and/or chaotic. These include orographic lift, sea/bay breezes, differential heating, etc. As a result, convection-allowing models are unsurprisingly variable in today`s convective evolution. There are, however, some similar characteristics among the guidance: (1) greater coverage versus previous days, (2) some semblance of convective propagation southward and westward, in association with ambient instability and (weak) low-level trajectories, (3) slow storm motions via weak tropospheric winds, and (4) multiple rounds of convection, with the evening/overnight rounds tied more closely to the larger- scale vort max. The greatest variability with the convective simulations is with the coverage/location of the overnight storms, with some models effectively stabilizing a large portion of the northern Mid-Atlantic from the daytime storms. Others are more aggressive in maintaining convection or developing new storms in close proximity to the vort max. Current thinking is that both scenarios will likely play out to some degree. Given the convectively-enhanced nature of the vort max (potentially exhibiting warm-core characteristics via MCV-related processes and attendant thermodynamic profiles), it would not be surprising to see more widespread convection during the afternoon/evening become more closely aligned with the track of the mid-/low-level circulation during the overnight hours.

90/72 Putrid.

We just can't know yet. One thing I do know- I am getting sick of the incessant tropical humid airmasses lately. I will be leaving for a cooler climo late next week and will return for the last week of September. It will probably still be warm and humid as eff.

Yeah looks like it will cut off the run of 90+ degree days, but not likely going to usher in a super refreshing airmass. Could end up being partly to mostly sunny though depending on where the front ends up stalling. Probably will see it get hotter again for a day or 2 early next week ahead of the more legit front.

Latest guidance suggests we may get a break from the workweek heat by the weekend via a back door front sinking south from NE. It looks like the front will stall somewhere over the region so it will probably be on the cloudy/wet side and still humid, at least for Saturday. GFS suggesting Sunday might be a decent day with the High over the Northeast pressing southward. Has temps in the low 80s and dews in the low 60s, and pretty much precip free.

Been using this ever since the NWS decided to make theirs shiit.

Maryland is extremely diverse in its beauty. Where were you exactly?

0.80" in the bucket today so far. Over 8" for the month.

Quick downpour- picked up 0.24". More behind it though. I can hear the thunder. I was really enjoying the light to moderate rain every few days and nothing excessive over the last month. That ended Friday with 4". Tropical jungle now with skeeters and no air movement. Disgusting.

Radar looks "interesting" for here. Please miss.

GFS looks putrid through the end of the month.

2016-17 and 2017-18 were pretty good for eastern areas. Median to average snowfall, and above avg snowfall both years I believe for the immediate MA coast. One was a weak Nina I think.

I know you have been paying close attention the last several winters. We manage to suck at snow regardless of ENSO state or strength. But historically, above all, root for a -AO. That gives the best chance for colder/snowier for DC area. Didn't quite work out last winter- other stuff can overwhelm, and it may not be the indicator it once was going forward. But we just cant know yet.

3.9" here today. Hopefully I can get back to missing/catching the edge of storms over the next few days.

Way too much, too fast. 3.9" The new parking pad needs a little work lol. This is why you don't try and do it all in one day. The 'sinkholes' are where the biggest trees were, and the stumps were more substantial. Enough of a void there with the dry soil and those areas got saturated and settled. At least this exposed the weak areas in one fell swoop rather than it taking until November.

I am happy with it. Just a few spots will need to be fixed up. The contractor will take care of it in the next few days.

Some spots in the new parking area have settled where tree stumps were removed, and will need some repair. Not surprising given how powdery dry the soil was. Probably would have been better to compact the crushed concrete and let things settle a a week or so before putting the stone down. Getting a tropical deluge the day after was probably a worse case scenario lol.

Right at 2" when I left the house. Hopefully not much more falls.

Man I hope that second area slides to my NW. Looks like some training setting up. Don't need 4" of rain. Up to 1.2" now. Booming thunder.

Haven't seen this kind of rain here in a while. Tropical deluge. 0.75" in 10 mins.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 609 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-201045- Kent DE-Queen Anne`s MD-Talbot MD-Caroline MD- 609 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Kent, northeastern Talbot, eastern Queen Anne`s and central Caroline Counties through 645 AM EDT... At 609 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Queen Anne, or 9 miles southeast of Centerville, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Easton, Denton, Greensboro, Oakland, Ridgely, Goldsboro, Queen Anne, Starr, Skipton, Jumptown, Matthews, Wye Mills, Griffin, Cordova, Carville, Hope, Hillsboro and Barclay.

Absolutely pouring here now. Got some thunder too. Guess I will wait to leave for work.