CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Agree that period has looked interesting on the ens runs, with colder air bleeding south behind a wave around the 4-5th. GEFS has been hinting at additional pieces of energy riding along the boundary in the days that follow, with colder air in place.
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That's not the only repost from the NE forum over the past few days, just to give a broader context. And I am glad you found it helpful!
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Makes sense. I was thinking GodDamn, didn't score.
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I watched the whole match but no idea if a draw is good for the US at this point. Very entertaining though.
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To be clear, I am referring to reposting of redundant model guidance maps that have literally just been posted and discussed by folks in this thread. Seems like it should add some new insight/a unique perspective.
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Not sure, but most guidance is suppressing it in ph7 or just as it progresses to ph8. The general tendency in a Nina is for convection to not progress far into the western Pac, ofc that is somewhat dependent on the specific location of the SST anomalies.
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The advertised looks on both the EPS and GEFS are acceptable at this range- the differences are probably related to the MJO wave progression, with the EPS moving it more quickly through phase 7 then dissipating it.
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Reposting stuff like this from the NE forum really doesn't add value to the discussion here tbh.
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Probably a little soon the way things look now. Maybe more towards the 10th. I agree with @WxUSAF that a bit of can kicking with peak RELOAD towards mid to late month wouldn't be a bad thing.
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It's a prominent feature of a Nina. Keeping it somewhat in check is a constant battle for our purposes. Ideally it would be more poleward over AK rather than broad and flat south of the Aleutians. What the models are depicting is a bit of both over the next 10 days or so, and the vortex near Okhotsk will continue to influence the character of that ridge. We need the -NAO to be legit and west based to counter the tendency for a trough out west and to keep the SE ridge flat.
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You know the drill with the LR guidance.
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This panel captures the inversion pretty well.
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28 here too Looks like a good chance of hitting 60+ today. High yesterday was 58.
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Alright.
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I really would like to complete this sale, and I can clearly see that you want to buy the product. Tell me how we can get this deal done today!
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GEFS + GEPS > EPS
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There are always legit concerns of one sort or another when it comes to getting snow in these parts, regardless of ENSO state.
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12z EPS keeps the vortex around Siberia stronger/more consolidated, so not quite as cold a look. Not earth shattering but something to keep an eye on.
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Third run in a row hinting, but this is a bit more robust. We track until it morphs lol.
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Just for the hell of it- since everyone is in a cheery mood on Turkey-day eve, not working/ at work pretending to work.
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Too much of a good thing. Ridge bridge with TPV lobes shedding off underneath and dropping south can act like a wrecking ball, crushing eastbound shortwaves taking the southern route. If this pattern is legit, we are going to see all sorts of wild outcomes on the op runs over the next week.
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GEFSx looks solid right through Xmas. I would expect the next run to look even better given the last few runs of the GEFS.
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Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol.
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A long way off and we know the op runs are not very useful for any sort of detail, but ya gotta like the h5 looks we are seeing on the means the last several runs. if it ends up being close to real, some early Dec frozen is on the table. Just not on the 10th ofc.
