CAPE

There is a decent signal for something other than rain across the MA between Feb 2-6th on the 0z GEFS. Multiple members depict snow/ice during that period, with several keying on the lower Mid Atlantic- a good sign imo to see suggestions of frozen to our south at this range. That possibility has been zero for the winter to this point. As depicted the pattern is driven by -EPO and displaced TPV. That gets the cold close and it may finally push southeastward through our area by the beginning of Feb. No real help in the NAO domain. The tendency for a ridge in the SE/ W Atlantic is going to be persistent.

Yeah I was actually referring more specifically to around Feb 2nd per my previous post. There are likely multiple factors to explain what's behind a progression like that op run and other examples of similar outcomes. Some of it is just cyclical like TNH etc, combined with Nina tendencies; the rest is that 'other stuff', which also helps explain the Pac jet on steroids/persistent -PNA etc.

Too much analysis for an op run at range lol. I just got a kick out of it because it somehow ended up the exact inversion of what we would want. EPS isn't bad end of the month considering we have a far less than ideal look up top- but there is a TPV lobe with anomalously low heights in a pretty good position to our NE. Looks dry as a bone though.

This is actually a pretty cold look for the MA. Problem is it's also dry.

lol Hell of a dipole(rex) block. The mirror image of what we want.

Why? The storm is coming. It's been well modeled for days lol The dumb jinx thing I am guessing. Why not have a thread for a discrete threat, so we can focus on more pattern chasing here for the big snow that will save this winter?

This is the period the ensembles have been hinting at for awhile now with the boundary finally to our south. Cold HP to the north and multiple waves on the GFS.

There is still a transient -NAO for the very end of the month into the first couple days of Feb on the GEFS and GEPS. The EPS was never as enthused about the idea, but overall guidance has backed off and transitions to a +NAO heading into February, for now. We shall see.

Outside of the far northern and western areas that might see some frozen this week, as depicted this period remains our best shot at something. Plenty of cold across Canada, and perhaps the boundary will be further south during this time.

They have a decent chance imo. Remember the 2019 Ravens, winners of 12 straight, well rested, but with key players still banged up- and a team coming in on a bit of a roll, feeling good with low expectations.. It happens.

a 120 can help facilitate that.

Probably not. Neutral trending positive.

Bengals (and Bills) can beat KC, at their place. No doubt. Those 3 teams are so close talent and coaching wise. The best of the AFC by far, and there are only 2 teams in the NFC on that level.

By default SF does what it takes to win, while Dallas does the antithesis in big games. Coaching and Kicking will make the difference if it's close. Again, edge 49ers.

384 hours out on an op run. It's close enough! Yes, apparently it is meteorologically possible to snow south of 40n with a look like this... -EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO, in a Nina.

Moved on to this. Black Flag never fails me. Very good. With sooo many hazy NE/WC style IPAs out there, more bad than good, THIS is very nice.

lol too funny. One will put you in a nice place. 2? I actually did that once, on tap at Rehoboth, and I was down for the count, sleeping like a baby not long after.

It is and I am currently drinking an incredibly delicious 120 min IPA, had half a gummy, and about to eat sushi.

One thing that can overcome all that is a mechanism for injecting cross polar flow into the pattern, with a trough carved into the central US that progresses eastward bringing legit cold. That's basically what happened early last Jan, but ofc that set up requires a lot to go right to get a storm to develop in time. Wet got the cold though. Cold is building in our source region now but going forward there is no mechanism for it push southward in the presence of a SE ridge. The hope on the guidance to suppress the ridge and shift the boundary just a bit further south was a -NAO period in conjunction with a -EPO. The former has (pretty suddenly) completely disappeared, and the EPO looks to trend positive towards early Feb, with an already -PNA. Ouch.

Without overthinking it as I don't have the energy, TNH + Nina is problematic, and add warming on top of that. Still hoping for a CP moderate Nino next winter. See how we roll with that.

Bengals-Bills, although I am intrigued with the Giants-Eagles game. Giants have a little something going and playing with house money, and the Eagles have been banged up a bit and not invincible over the past 3 games.

Crappy airmass in front and a HP off the coast is a little tough. Would need more resistance up top.

The biggest 'risk' for the end of the month period might be chilly and dry. Some subtle hints on the means of waves tracking to our south, and the GFS op has teased a bit.

We probably have a week or so the end of the month into early Feb to luck into something with colder air in place, but trends on guidance don't look great beyond that. A lot more blue up top. Better h5 looks will probably show up on guidance for mid to late Feb, then we can do this all over again. Third time the charm lol? Dying Nina plus strat stuff may give a us a chance.

Thanks but I am on Pivotal now. Not sure why I haven't used this lol.