CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Only documented in the threads here. Pretty much all over the place. Off the top of my head- a bit over avg last winter, exactly median the winter before, the winter before that, well . Then another median. The 17 and 18 Nina years, one was just under median, the other close to mean. That's 6 I think lol. 2015-16 was the super (warm) Nino. Right around average. Last above avg years were 2013-14, and again in 15. Long term avg for here is 18.5".
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One of the reasons last Jan was an epic month for eastern areas. 3 winter storms, all snow.
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Is this one of those alternative facts?
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Home>General Forecasting and Discussion>Climate Change Start new thread: DCA declining snowfall- A statistical Debate
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The AO/NAO doesn't look to go hostile as the pattern improves out west. Probably stay around neutral for a time. There are some indications in the longer term of another -NAO episode. As for late developing Miller B type events, they can happen even with a block.
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We have a sighting lol.
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I was just looking at this period on both the GEFS and EPS. Way out there so the indications are more subtle, but there appears to be a couple chances as the boundary works southward and we chill down, with a few waves moving along in the flow. First chance, as has been discussed quite a bit, is the 8-9th, and then again around the 12th. The latter may end up being the better set-up for something wintry.
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I will add a little to what you said, which was good! Confluence(and convergence) in the upper levels increases pressure at the surface. In the case of a NAO block, the presence of a somewhat stationary low near the 50-50 position maintains the confluence (and thus HP at the surface) in a very favorable position to our N/NW over Canada. We can still get transient confluence as a vortex is moving across to our north, but timing is more critical as surface HP will not be locked in place.
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This seems like a passive-aggressive thing lol.
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High of 32. Currently 25. Solid cold airmass for late Dec. Had a bit of snow with the front, but a bit shit that most didn't even get that, and a minor to moderate storm would have been nice. It's how we roll!
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Interesting that the EPS is building +heights into the NAO domain across Greenland around the 10th, sooner than the GEFS and CMC ens, both of which have - h5 anomalies there at that point.
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I have had it a couple times on tap at DFH in Rehoboth. One of the best Imperial breakfast stouts I have ever tried. The bitter dark chocolate, roasty coffee notes, the hint of maple with an incredible mouthfeel from the oatmilk, all in perfect harmony. I then bought a 4 pack to take home, but the experience from the bottle was a bit disappointing. Still good, but the flavor notes were not as well defined, and the great mouthfeel became something more on the thick and syrupy side.
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Slightly + temp anomalies over much of Canada is cold enough as we move towards mid Jan. Temps in our region are below avg by the 10th verbatim on that run. Maybe look at the actual temp panels. Looks pretty cold.
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Just hit 32. Still an 'Arctic' airmass feel out there, despite the moderating temps. Plenty of ice on the Choptank River between Greensboro and Denton.
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It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow Bad timing and bad luck. Bad climo. So much to overcome.
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That would be kinda funny if it snowed in January after the extreme December hype December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.
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Latest GEFSX gets to a more favorable look sooner compared to the previous run. Most notable difference are heights building into Greenland mid month, with the TPV displaced further south. CFS doing this as well.
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low of 12 here this morning.
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Except for the chance of rain that comes with the warmth.
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Guidance doesn't appear to be 'can kicking' this time. This period is looking better.
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Not verbatim per an op run, but at the beginning stages of a pattern change, yeah this general idea is how it could work.
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The 0z GFS shows how it could work for that period, with a couple storms that track NW, incrementally bringing some colder air southward, followed by a trailing wave that digs further south on the 10th.
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I think Weather Will is 'willing' this one into existence lol. I just pointed out how it could work based on ensemble model depiction of h5 progression. Latest guidance still hinting things could get a little more interesting as early as the 8-10 window. My guess is mid month is probably more realistic, esp for the lowlands.
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Love hiking when the soil is frozen. Having clean shoes are nice, but the feel/sound of walking on it just adds to the whole experience of being out in a crisp, cold airmass that originated way up north.
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lol Just effing with HI-Z a bit. He has a tendency to pop in here and make posts without reading any of the thread convo that came prior. If he had, I bet he would have made a different post- one that adds something to what has already been discussed.
