CAPE

Ten Fidy Barrel Aged stout now.

As a Ravens fan who watched the defense keep the Bengals offense in check for 2 straight games, its a shame their offense was inept and Lamar was out. D has been stout. What could have been if Roman had been fired before the season. I kind of thought Buffalo's D was pretty soft, esp without Miller. Bengals are eating early. Long way to go.

I apologize for my part in this.

Romo is even worse. He will call Josh Allen Mr. January, an Alien.. lol.

Nice drive by the Bengals. Burrow is so slippery in the pocket. Noticed that watching him against the Ravens for 2 straight games. And man does he have some legit targets.

Got your snow game going in Buffalo.

It generally looks more like the GEFS now wrt that. Still a little dry though.

Just made my first ever Old Fashioned. Not too shabby! Followed a basic recipe but used Vermont Maple syrup instead of sugar.

or 05..or 13. We have options!

Might be how it works out. The very end of Jan to Feb 2nd is probably the earliest for something. In general the 2nd through the 8th or so is probably the best window. GEFS is more bullish early, but the CMC ens is pretty close. EPS(0z) not as much. The overall period might be longer if the NAO cooperates a little more than guidance is currently depicting.

GEFS suggests another wave with a shot at frozen for the 6-7th. Not a big fan of the snow maps at range, but this is something of an indicator given the period looks pretty favorable.

We have seen plenty of head fakes no doubt. Worst that can happen is more of the same. Let's be positive. Glass half full here. Your 'goal' at this point should be getting 20"+ or something like that. We have all of Feb and March, and the prospects for late Feb into March look pretty decent. I will be happy with whatever I get here. A foot would be amazing.

Ten+ days out and this is only a 6 hour panel. You get the general idea.

Our first legit chance.

This marks the beginning of our period of hope, our change of fortune. Direct delivery of Polar air into the pattern, and the TPV is the mechanism to hand it off to the mid latitudes.

lol

There is a decent signal for something other than rain across the MA between Feb 2-6th on the 0z GEFS. Multiple members depict snow/ice during that period, with several keying on the lower Mid Atlantic- a good sign imo to see suggestions of frozen to our south at this range. That possibility has been zero for the winter to this point. As depicted the pattern is driven by -EPO and displaced TPV. That gets the cold close and it may finally push southeastward through our area by the beginning of Feb. No real help in the NAO domain. The tendency for a ridge in the SE/ W Atlantic is going to be persistent.

Yeah I was actually referring more specifically to around Feb 2nd per my previous post. There are likely multiple factors to explain what's behind a progression like that op run and other examples of similar outcomes. Some of it is just cyclical like TNH etc, combined with Nina tendencies; the rest is that 'other stuff', which also helps explain the Pac jet on steroids/persistent -PNA etc.

Too much analysis for an op run at range lol. I just got a kick out of it because it somehow ended up the exact inversion of what we would want. EPS isn't bad end of the month considering we have a far less than ideal look up top- but there is a TPV lobe with anomalously low heights in a pretty good position to our NE. Looks dry as a bone though.

This is actually a pretty cold look for the MA. Problem is it's also dry.

lol Hell of a dipole(rex) block. The mirror image of what we want.

Why? The storm is coming. It's been well modeled for days lol The dumb jinx thing I am guessing. Why not have a thread for a discrete threat, so we can focus on more pattern chasing here for the big snow that will save this winter?

This is the period the ensembles have been hinting at for awhile now with the boundary finally to our south. Cold HP to the north and multiple waves on the GFS.

There is still a transient -NAO for the very end of the month into the first couple days of Feb on the GEFS and GEPS. The EPS was never as enthused about the idea, but overall guidance has backed off and transitions to a +NAO heading into February, for now. We shall see.

Outside of the far northern and western areas that might see some frozen this week, as depicted this period remains our best shot at something. Plenty of cold across Canada, and perhaps the boundary will be further south during this time.