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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
  2. CAPE
    Improvement over Atlantic Canada. Less amplified wave probably has a lot to do with that.
  3. CAPE
    Getting a graupel shower here on the west side of Easton.
  4. CAPE
    Seeing hints of a storm along the east coast for the 20th, most notably on the EPS.
  5. CAPE
    EPS and GEPS have a signal for low pressure off the NC coast for the 16th. Difficult to see any indication on the GEFS.
  6. CAPE
    Getting the heaviest rain of the storm now with this line moving through. Sounds like a summer downpour. 1.78"
  7. CAPE
    Pretty close match to 12z. Timing a bit different.
  8. CAPE
    Mean looks nearly identical to the 12z run to me. Don't really care about a control run ever. It's either off on a tangent or similar to the op. So go with the op.
  9. CAPE
    58 and pouring with this line moving through. Wind gusts to probably 40. 1.3" so far.
  10. CAPE
    Inaccurate interpretation.
  11. CAPE
    Who suggested that?
  12. CAPE
    Long range looks just a bit conflicted on the GEFS. Don't care to pore over the members. The upshot on the LR mean is maybe a mediocre late month period at worst. NA looks ok. The Pacific looks serviceable or better. Verbatim average temps in the east. My wag is it ends up avg or colder than avg.
  13. CAPE
    Not looking big dog at this juncture on the GEFS, but the 20th still looks favorable overall. The mean seems to imply a moderate event is doable.
  14. CAPE
    Probably having some impact. A this point I don't think either are far off from a favorable outcome, albeit somewhat different paths. All part of the fun of tracking.
  15. CAPE
    EPS, the better model, looks pretty good rn.
  16. CAPE
    Not sure this is the change we want. More NS interaction overtop a weakening, strung out wave, and higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes.. Kind of a lose-lose. Only another op run though!
  17. CAPE
    Didn't he just cancel winter? #Summer2024
  18. CAPE
    Getting some good gusts now. Tree debris falling on the roof.
  19. CAPE
    Plenty of water lying in the fields here too. Ditches full. Water table broke the surface in my seasonal wetland. Last year that happened late April/early May. And only 0.45" so far for this one. Too much rain over the last 6 weeks.
  20. CAPE
    Most likely path to victory is a phase but the timing has to be just right- around the Mississippi probably. If we get lucky and some lower heights squeeze out into the 50-50 region then there is more wiggle room.
  21. CAPE
    Yeah it looks a bit better than 0z.
  22. CAPE
    I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps.
  23. CAPE
    Its cold
  24. CAPE
    All I'll say about the 12z EURO is too much NS interaction too far west for my liking. Unless we get lucky with a well timed 50-50, we don't want too much amplification. I gave my opinions this morning on a couple ways we can pull something out given the NS convolution.
  25. CAPE
    What keeps a 50-50 low 'in place' is a true (rex) block. A dipole. We have that here, but the vortex part of the block isn't where we want it.
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