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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    No worries. Hope you feel better soon.
  2. CAPE
    It was just odd you replied to my post to begin with. What you chose to go on a soapbox over was unrelated to the context of the discourse.
  3. CAPE
    Hint: I never said anything about expectations for snow this winter because it's a Nino. He read into that/ had some preconceived notion or whatever the hell and went off on some tangent about certain people here being crazy for thinking average climo snowfall is ok this winter. HE HAD NO POINT. Still not sure why you replied with all this superfluous crap lol.
  4. CAPE
    Quite possibly. But weren't you just moaning about punting away weeks of winter this morning over this same look though? Good to see you got your mind right.
  5. CAPE
    You are off on a tangent here. Maybe re-read some of the posts leading up to my reply to his post.
  6. CAPE
  7. CAPE
    Maybe the recent cooling near the MC will encourage a shift in the convection further eastward into the Central Pac.
  8. CAPE
    MJO and ENSO are intertwined. Location and magnitude of tropical forcing does matter. Ofc so do a lot of other indices. Complex and esoteric.
  9. CAPE
    In my initial post (that you replied to) I didn't mention anything about climo or expectations. We need periods with a favorable pattern to give us a chance for snow. We just had one and we got some snow. Guidance suggests the next favorable period will be centered on mid Feb. We are probably 10 days away from the next trackable threat.
  10. CAPE
    2009-10 was once in a lifetime. Modoki Nino and sustained strong HL blocking. It was cold enough every time it needed to be.
  11. CAPE
    Nino's give us a better chance of a big winter storm. That's it. And if we get a 2 week period in Feb with a favorable pattern, it may very well happen. Some folks should just stay out of the discussion threads.
  12. CAPE
    I wonder what would cause you to make a comparison between the snow climo of Leesburg, VA and Greenville, SC.
  13. CAPE
    I grew up south of Westminster at 850 feet elevation. Yeah snow climo is better overall than places SE of the Fall line, but I remember plenty of frustrating periods, and also being fringed lol.
  14. CAPE
    Regardless of ENSO state, we are lucky to get more than 3 weeks total where it's both cold enough and there are storm chances. Where the fuck do these people think they live?
  15. CAPE
    How many weeks of actual winter weather did we have the last time there was a strong Nino? Be careful calling people crazy when you drop turd posts like this.
  16. CAPE
    Amazingly, neither of you seem to know where you live. We are just coming out of a 10 day period of legit winter that produced a moderate amount of snow in the lowlands. If we get another 10-14 days with a pattern that can deliver below avg temps with a favorable storm track, that is a pretty typical winter at this latitude outside of the western highlands and PSU land. Also a reminder- These sort of posts belong in the Panic Room thread.
  17. CAPE
    Getting there.
  18. CAPE
    High of 36. Some melting today, but still 4"+ otg. Thaw begins in earnest tomorrow with low 40s. eta- when I was typing/editing the op I deleted part of it- should read: 'still 2.5 - 4+" otg'. Location in the woods filters the sun (and wind) quite a bit.
  19. CAPE
    Lol another one.. Pacific jet extensions BAD. TORCH!! These fuckin guys.
  20. CAPE
    He is still trying to convince himself(and others) his postulation is valid, despite so much failure to connect those dots.
  21. CAPE
    Chuck...
  22. CAPE
    LOL. He is the one who has been pushing the extended Pacific jet = Pac puke = doom narrative and making weenies panic every time they see those words. He probably realizes he won't be able to support that crap this time. Time to shift the goalposts!
  23. CAPE
    Yeah it seems to be in alignment with where the extended tools take the pattern going forward- maybe a little sooner.
  24. CAPE
    My hunch is we are seeing the antithesis of a can kick across guidance.
  25. CAPE
    12z GEFS suggesting the h5 pattern becomes serviceable sooner- western trough progressing eastward under the ridge and indications of NA wave breaks initiating a -NAO.
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