CAPE

Y'all heard it. The 7th is a no go. Find something else to do.

Okay Chuck

Not far off. Pretty favorable look. A bit more spacing relative to the (would be) 50-50 low/a bit less confluence underneath of it might do the trick.

Not really close no.

HH GFS time... The possible 'event' for the 4th is out of sync in the upper level as the NS vorticity is on top of/behind the southern wave(no phase until way offshore). The orientation of the trough is positively tilted as it passes overhead. That one may be dead at this point without significant changes in timing.

Different reasons. TPV lobe position is spinning off energy in this case. What we need is a legit NA block with a quasi-stationary 50-50 low. That would lock HP in SE Canada where we want it.

Not a torch, but that low tracking over the GLs doesn't help the low/mid levels. Op run 8 days out so who cares.

What period are you referring to? And what pattern am I rooting for?

In my neck of the woods this is the type of setup that has worked pretty well multiple times in recent winters. A well timed healthy wave tracking along the boundary for a moderate snow event. And let me be clear- IDGAF about a KU.

The 7th looks cold enough. The 10th has been problematic due the the NS energy and likelihood of a primary OV/GL low. If that tracks NW ofc we are going to warm for a couple days. Anyway back to the 7th- The primary issue on the 12z run is the track is a bit further SE. Nice problem to have at this juncture imo.

Look at the surface. It's cold. The 'warm up' is around the 9th-10th on the GEPS verbatim, then colder air pushes eastward. Almost the entire country is below avg on that panel.

I think the idea was if the pattern went in that direction it would lock in for awhile, and not necessarily ever get to the more typical late winter Nino pattern. There are elements with this Nino that are different than previous strong events, and throw in the possibility of SSW event, could be some curveballs down the road.

He did say he didn't buy the GEFS look. Ofc he then proceeded to make multiple posts describing what he thought the result would be if it went down that way, driving weenies to the ledge.

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

A bit of an improved look on the 6z GEFS for the 7th. More consolidated low position just off the NC coast, similar to the EPS.

It's not a good look, but sometimes we put too much emphasis on smoothed ens snapshots of the longwave pattern and seemingly assume it remains stationary. 'Game over' is a bit hyperbolic. Even that composite h5 anomaly, which is a 'bad' overall look, is somewhat misleading as some of those winters(2017, 18, 22) featured enough of a shift in the pattern at times to produce cold periods with one or more big snowstorms for the MA and NE. Some winters we end up with consistently 'good' patterns that produce little to nothing. Ultimately our snow chances always require good wave timing in conjunction with cold air.

Looking ahead at the big picture, nothing wrong with this h5 look. I'm sure some will nitpick this or that, but this is a cold look for much of the lower 48. GEPS is similar, with a prominent west based -NAO. The advertised h5 look on the GEFS is clearly not as favorable, but verbatim even it suggests temps are normal/slightly below into the second week of Jan.

All 3 ensemble means have the storm for the 7th on the 0z runs. EPS has the strongest signal for low pressure tracking just off the NC coast with decent cold in place. GEPS is weaker/ further SE, and the GEFS is sort of in the middle- still looks like there are a few camps among the members on low position (as illustrated in my post last evening), but I didn't bother looking at the individual panels this morning. Upshot is this still looks like the best opportunity for frozen in the next 10 days. Verbatim on the EPS it is cold enough for a snow event for western areas, further east it is a bit more marginal but easily the coldest we seen in a long time while actually precipitating. Based on the EPS, my wag would be rain/mix to snow from the Fall line points east.

Yeah Lamar should have at least 5 more TD passes/runs

I really think(and hope) it's wrong. Like a lot of things, we have no control over these outcomes. It will be what it will be, and life goes on. That said, the Ravens better fucking beat the Dolphins

End of the latest EPS run- Latest Euro Weeklies- the pattern progression through the mid Jan period. Go ahead and freak out about the latest GEFS runs, even though the advertised pattern progression doesn't align with Nino forcing, and looks more Nina like. I'll go with the higher res/better track record of the Euro on this one. Could be wrong. My guess is that those who think the GEFS is more correct are predisposed to expecting the worst case scenario.

The ens runs don't even get to mid Jan technically. And why is this a 'bad pattern'?

HH for the 7th- a few camps among the members, from milder and NW with the track to colder and suppressed, and the in between scenario. Still a good signal for frozen in general for the MA. Exact details cannot be known at this juncture.

0.90" Underperformer, and I am happy about it. Soil is saturated with water laying around in the lower/ heavy soil areas. 6.44" for the month.

Yeah the timing and degree of interaction with any NS energy is going to be critical for determining the exact outcome. That was absent last run. We just cant know yet lol.