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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    This is a good look on the EPS with significant NS energy tracking eastward and phasing into the 50-50 low ahead of the southern shortwave. The tricky part will be the next piece of energy dropping southward as the wave continues to track east.
  2. CAPE
    There is a lot going on here. Tracking for this period won't be for the faint of heart.
  3. CAPE
    He is frazzled. Seems he suddenly forgot everything he ever knew about LR guidance.
  4. CAPE
    And many others only see the path to failure.
  5. CAPE
    The Canadian lol. Guidance in general having issues resolving the transfer and how quickly the coastal strengthens. Exact track is a bit iffy too. Right now probably gotta ride with the Euro-GFS combo. Given the warmth out in front and no cold HP up north, a norther track/rain-snow line makes sense.
  6. CAPE
    The 2 strongest signals for a storm beyond the 15th on the 6z GEFS-
  7. CAPE
    Yoda might be a goner.
  8. CAPE
    Lets all effing panic over the pattern not looking so epic beyond 10 days on a smoothed mean. Is this a forest for the trees thing? Maybe the inverse.
  9. CAPE
    Its crazy to look past a window with potential that is still 8-10 days out, because the weeklies have been persistent about the 24th lol. This isn't really even a suppressed look. It is a bit too far SE verbatim, and it is still pretty far out there.
  10. CAPE
    No need. We know how to find the Panic thread.
  11. CAPE
    I made my good faith effort. No more coddling the panic stricken here. Take it to the other thread. Y'all just getting weenies from me going forward lol.
  12. CAPE
    It's not weak here, and this is 8 days out. Maybe focus on this period and not worry so much about the period beyond that. There will be more error associated with location/strength of h5 features further into the run. Also there will be some actual waxing and waning regardless- the atmosphere is a fluid in motion. Even in a blocky pattern these features can't remain stationary.
  13. CAPE
    Interpretation of LR ens means requires a bit of skill. Nuanced. Look for the hints/trends over several runs 10+ days out.
  14. CAPE
    I see some nice things for that period.
  15. CAPE
    Nothing nice about it... you need to be more specific.
  16. CAPE
    0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs.
  17. CAPE
    This isn't a new development though. This has been modeled for many days now. I do think that ridge closing off and shifting north + the Pac trough encroaching on the west coast is the main reason recent guidance is somewhat less cold for the beginning of late month 'prime' window. It looks temporary though as the trough retrogrades a bit with a PNA ridge starting to develop towards the 23rd.
  18. CAPE
    I believe Ji is the official designator for 'ownership' of storm threats. You need to consult with him.
  19. CAPE
    It would be a little crazy. This one better not fizzle. It will be the end of many here. WW is teetering.
  20. CAPE
    More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks.
  21. CAPE
    All we can say with certainty is there should be multiple chances beyond mid month, given the advertised h5 pattern progression.
  22. CAPE
    Indication of NS interaction at h5 and norther SLP on the 18z GEFS for PD window.
  23. CAPE
    The southward displaced TPV between the developing NA block and the amped up EPO ridge. That should close off and shift north heading into the end of Feb/beginning of March per LR guidance. Somewhat different setup, but during our wintery period in Jan there was a TPV 'stuck' under a retrograding -NAO. These H5 configurations will produce a busy NS. Going forward the developing block with a legit 50-50 low should help shift/consolidate the NS energy in that region and inhibit it from dropping southward as much.
  24. CAPE
    Zero. One RAR triple IPA and half a KBS so far.
  25. CAPE
    PD is by no means "dead". No it doesn't look like big dog potential, but there is a signal for a storm there. The latest op runs indicate it will require timing with NS energy. Well this isnt surprising- it has been a theme, even in the one week deep winter period back in Jan. So far this has not been the quintessential 'quiet' NS Nino. My wag is it won't be going forward either.
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