CAPE

RGEM at this range? (or any FTM) Come on dude. BTW many of your posts are kinda seizure inducing. Headache at minimum.

Good luck to the Dolphins in KC Saturday. A slight chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Wind chill values between -8 and -15. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

HH has arrived. Let's get this party started. GI BCBS here. The 18z Natty Blend still looks good.

Look at the members on the last 3 GEFS runs. Same thing. Still a fair amount of uncertainty. Filtering the run to run noise, there is a signal for a light to moderate snow event for much of our region on the means.

The snow mean on the 12z EPS is pretty damn similar to the 0z and 6z runs. 1.5 -3". 12z is obv a bit better for the immediate coastal areas. Cold HR stuff.

That's my understanding. And no perturbations like the other members.

Pretty similar to that point. Slightly less out your way.

Yes it can happen, esp in cases where legit cold is pressing in.

Snow mean for 6z. Precipitation ongoing.

The conventional thinking is it's good to have the storm bit too far south at this range, as these storms always trend NW as we get closer. That might be a weenie rule actually.

Now. Looks a bit further SE than 0z.

First bit of discussion I have seen for next Tuesday from Mount Holly in the AFD. Some dirty talk in there. Looking towards the beginning of the week guidance is showing a deep 250mb trough swinging through the central US. This sends a strong 250mb jet over the region and guidance has shown the potential for some weak cyclogensis to our south. The consensus amongst guidance is that a low pressure system will form to our south and stays to the south as it moves towards the northeast. This keeps the forecast area entirely in the cold sector of the system and in the right rear quad of the 250mb jet. That should lead to broad synoptic lift and with moisture in place we may see accumulating snow across the region. Based on the 18z ensembles that went into the 01z NBM, the nearly the entire forecast area has 50% chance of exceeding 1" of snow and given the area would be in the cold sector there would be no immediate rainfall to melt the snow. At this point limiting factors would be the speed of the system rather than thermal profiles.

For the 19-20th potential, for now the tendency is for surface low development a little too far north and offshore. Might be a case of a little too much +PNA. Not seeing much of an indication of a shortwave taking the southern route- the primary energy would be embedded in the flow overtop the ridge. With that vortex shifting from south central Canada eastward to Atlantic Canada, NS energy associated with that may get involved a bit too late. Still almost 10 days out so plenty of time for changes in the key players.

Latest NBM

The 'trend' on the GEFS is good though. 2 runs ago there was barely an indication of a surface low. Last run it was well off the coast. Did you see the MSLP anomaly panel I just posted for 6z?

What trend are you speaking of?

Better depiction of a low just off the NC coast than previous runs.

Needless to say I'm not a fan of that run verbatim but that is still a possibility if a sharp NS shortwave digs and phases too early. The 50-50 region is precarious, so too amped is going to be problematic.

WW might stop worrying about those bad SE trends after this run.

Well this is just a little different

NE MD PUMMELED seems a good bet. A puking fatties watch may be required.

Pretty much a duplicate of 12z EPS.

Looks like the 12z op run, so probably a similar outcome.