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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The thing is....when you lose a significant portion of the early winter, and then end up near average, it implies a pretty damn good period or two.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is the essence of what I missed in December....the RNA was deeper and less variable. The lower heights also hung around AK a bit longer than I had thought early on in the month. Pretty small misses in the grand scheme of things have a very big sensible impact and can really flush a forecast.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he over embellishes in an attempt to derive humor from a sea of weather shit.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We really only had two stick-bomb winters when your kids were growing up....2006-2007, and 2011-2012.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take that, and stick in your deep, dark no-no place!
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that is a subjective ratter.....I am speaking of a statistical ratter in terms of total seasonal snowfall.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree, but we'll see. Stratosphere dependent.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its been dry in large part because of that RNA....even when the NAO block developed, we had the compression between the NAO ridge to the north, and RNA ridge to the south. It would not have been dry if the RNA were just a little less prevalent.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is what killed us....even if it had reached between -1 and -2 nadir, we probably would have seen significant snow with that NAO block.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is why seasonal forecasting is sooooo difficult. 1970 was one of my December analogs, and its really didn't evolve too much differently, but the RNA and NAO being in perfect synch porked us out of the snow. Obviously it was warmer, too...that was over 50 years ago.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. Get it out of the way, sooner or later we won't have to hear you chirping us incessantly about regression.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I need to see early Feb to go ratter territory just because I expect the stratosphere to get active around that time....if that isn't happening, and it looks bleak, then yes....rat it is.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    He isn't perfect, but one thing that I will say for DT is that he doesn't utilize forecasts as clickbait like so many other internet mets.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the complete inverse pattern of 2014-2015.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I am no where near that. However, if we somehow make it into the second week of January without anything significant on the imminent horizon, then I will be worried about some of my seasonal forecast ranges.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Light Snow 29.7
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely agree.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly don't care...in fact, whereas I work in the AM, CT can have the inch.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The 18z has the right idea....pin the good snows in CT, and pork my area.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The RNA is so prominent that the blocking is what makes it possible to even snow in NNE.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Believe me, take a look at most of the NFL owners....just lucky sperm that are born, roll out of bed and collect billions.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this jives with my observation.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wilmington and Tewksbury looked bare....maybe it was just by the highway.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am confident that the second half of January goes to crap again.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with you, and I think Jerry has also said, that the second wave in January (10thish) has a better shot to produce. I think if that one somehow fails, we maybe in some trouble.
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