40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I feel like the guidance will warm later towards the fall. I do not see an el nino by CPC guidelines, but warm neutral is in play.

Yea. I can deal with this kind of a torch...just keep that midwest crap at bay,

I agree....must just be the relative absence of humidity...which I know will change later in the season.

No, you're fine...I respect when someone proves me wrong with empirical evidence, rather than just devolving it into a pissing contest.

Yes, congrats. Unlike so many on here, I will admit when proven wrong.

Fair enough. I stand corrected...my bad. For whatever reason, its seemed comfortable to me.

Agree....I feel like there have been a couple of very hot days that were negated by the couple of days near 50 with fog.

I don't think that proves anything other than you had one exceptionally hot day.

Its just as prevalent in winter, too....for every complainer, there is a Calvary of defense mechanisms waiting at the frontline to wage war with reality.

Yea, it hasn't been 2009 or anything....just not many hot maxes.

Due to overnight mins, yes. I don't care about that...its the day time highs that I am concerned with...just like winter.

I love the barrage of butt-hurt defense mechanisms when people state the obvious, which is that it hasn't been above normal thus far....usually centered around deflecting towards the peak climo idea, which is irrelevant when speaking of anomalies....at least I am.

Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that it hasn't been hot, so far. Its like failing to acknowledge how lame last December was because we hadn't yet reached peak climo.

2012-2013 is another potential analog to keep in mind...

This warm season has been a winner, so far....no complaints. I'm sure we will get some dewy days, but its been manageable.

I just mentioned 2018-2019 in the SNE thread....agree that is a potential early analog.

2018-2019 and, as already mentioned, 1976-1977 will be two potential analogs to monitor in the early going

I am beginning to grow confident that it will be warm-neutral.....I think a full-fledged el nino is exceedingly unlikely looking at ONI climo data.

Watch 1976 as a potential analog this fall...I see some parallels with respect to ENSO recovery.

Dude must be a blast to live or hang out with.

1.09" today, after .25" yesterday.

For those proponents of the Atlantic May-Aug subsurface as a predictor of the DF NAO, we are off to one hell of a start-

We've been in a period kind of akin to the 1950s over the past several years, and we may be ready to take a plunge into a modified version of the 60s rather shortly...

My confidence is usually pretty high by September.....what I am confident of right now is that I do not see an intense, or even moderate ENSO event next season....just a matter of which side of neutral it will lay. The Pacific has been my strength with respect to seasonal forecasting....its the Atlantic and polar domain that I have really struggled with. I have nailed (verification is defined as within .3 either direction) my ENSO forecasts 7/8 seasons.....however, you would have been better served assuming the opposite of whatever I forecast with respect to the NAO, as I am 0/6.

Poor Rico....he was never the same after that. RIP.