40/70 Benchmark

Anyone else notice how lackluster the ECMWF is with la nina, and how quickly it models its demise this winter? Has it at peak now, and weakens it to cool-neutral territory by December. It makes sense to me given what I read regarding the lack of connection between the IOD and late developing, or year long stagnant ENSO events.

I'm not saying we are going to have a favorable Pacific from 12/1 to 3/31, but I think we will have some periods of PNA....like we did last season from January through March.

Wife and kids will be in Uganda for another month, I'll ask them to send some serviceable waves along the train haha. Wow, had it been quiet...

My early feelings are it will be relatively potent, but probably more of a modoki. I think the problem that plagues seasonal forecasts that incorporate ENSO is that they tend to generalize, and ENSO events can have pretty drastically different impacts around the hemisphere due to not only differences in strength, but the location of where the anomalies are focused.

Its a defense mechanism.

Nice...good luck.

You maybe right...I haven't done the work with the el nino dataset yet. There is some subjectivity involved...what I did with la nina is I took a binned data set from a peer reviewed paper and then made some adjustments to the data myself. I consider modoki events ones in which the anomalies are centered well to the west, near the dateline, with either neutral or very weak anomalies to the east of 150 degrees longitude, over the eastern regions of 3 and 1.2. I then have a basin-wide/central pacific group, which I refer to in my work as "Hybrid" events, which are centered around approximately 150 longitude, but usually have el nino (la nina) anomalies throughout the basin. Finally, the east based events are entered to the east of 150* longitude, over regions 3 and 1.2, and have either marginal or no el nino (la nina) anomalies west of 150W. Its tedious, but if you look at the DM SSTs from every year, you can get a good sense of where to group each season. Its helpful if you scale the SST anomalies down to 0.5 degree increments to really get a better sense of where the event was focused, as the coarser increments can be more difficult to discern, especially with respect to the weaker events.

I need to go through the el nino events since 1950 and bin them by modoki level, like I have for la nina....probably this spring while in Africa. But I noticed that you have 2009-2010 as central Pacific el nino; I distinctly remember that as being modoki....2002-2003, too.....1986-1987 was probably basin wide with a westward lean.

I think alot of people are underestimating the Pacific this year.

Yea, just commented.

Notice some early leaf drop starting...

If you think la nina holds firmly into March, sure.

I actually think a disconnect with the IOD is why it isn't even stronger.

Great post.

I may be alone on this, but I expect a good amount of +PNA this winter.

Pacific is definitely more important, but the NAO is a factor, especially given a hostile Pacific.

Lol Make sure Allison doesn't catch you

Nude beach?

We could steal some negative NAO in December and March, but it will def. average positive DM.

A strong modoki is perfectly fine...it just doesn't have the SNE ceiling that a weaker event does bc the STJ is more prevalent than the N stream. Think 2009-2010, but we would likely do better than we did that season because we were very unlucky. Highest snowfall anonalies would be expected across the mid atl, though....probe to big Miller Assholes. Keep in mind when I say "strong" modoki....I mean like peak ONI of 1.5 or 1.6C....not super nino..those are canonical or basin wide deals. Modoki has a ceiling due to the dynamics of the Walker Cycle.

Agree. Ironically enough, I think the only reason this la nina won't end up strong is because it stagnated throughout the year. If it had abated and then redeveloped, it would have been better suited to link with the IOD and would have really gone to town.

I actually don't think the IOD and nina are coupled....according to research, the IOD isn't directly triggered by la nina unless it's a new event that develops by early summer...year long and late developing events interact differently with the ambient atmosphere over the tropical Pac. This is a big reason why I think the rug gets pulled out quickly this winter, regardless of the state of the subsurface in August. This will serve to give el nino a real head start and it will at that point couple with the IO next summer...probably inducing another negative event.

I'm confident it will be at least moderate...maybe even strong, but it won't be a super event...modokis do not do that due to the currents associated with the dynamics of the Walker Cycle. I think it will be like 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10.

Modoki next year is a slam dunk...been saying for months.