40/70 Benchmark

About a 10-spot ....that would honestly be more impressive than the 12" blizzard here because it would probably fall over a shorter duration.

Yea, I could def see an abrupt end to it all at some point in March....Kev and I were talking about that a couple of days ago.

Remember all of those generic, cookie-cutter, blowtorch ratter winter outlooks? This is why I knew this winter wouldn't be like that (shit interior SNE/CNE snow luck not withstanding), just as I knew 2017-2018 winter wouldn't. Not all la ninas are the same....some are stronger, some are weaker, some are more modoki, some or more east based, some are in the middle.....some are strongly coupled, some less coupled. It was always apparent that this would be near the threshold of weak-moderate, well coupled on average (yes, some variation) and biased somewhat to the east. Anyone with this insight and unlimited access to the data would not have forecast a generic la nina season. Period-

John, I have noticed that all of the government agencies take a very lazy approach to la nina...especially with respect to longer lead times. Its always base-state, generic la nina climo....cold nw, warm SE, blah, blah. I understand that we don't have big blocking, so there is a risk, as Scott points out so diligently and incessantly, but I think they need to be a little more open minded with respect to these ENSO climo conceptualizations.

I didn't mention it in my January update, but I think la nina will end up a bit more eastern biased than even I had forecast, so that probably did play a role in shifting the focus more later in the winter as opposed to December....this is probably part of the reason why I mixed up December and January. That was a very good point George, but its something I will touch upon more after the season ends, rather than in season. I tend to focus on ENSO more before and after the season, as opposed to during.

Hopefully stormier in CNE, as it was pretty dry north of the pike.

Yea, I never had an issue with some strong gusts around 1K and near the coast...the bet was that I would lose power.

Let me know when I can collect from you and Noyes.

Stay safe

I never pay any attention to wind threats....about once a decade they catch my attention.

Yea.....if that works out, then January just replaces December and I still have a shot to get to my interior totals....need the se areas to run into some tough luck, though. lol

Tried to tell him...unfortunately for him, I whiffed on December, the time he likes.

I'd be fine with that, too, since CJ land was ground zero then.

They have actually gotten crushed synoptically speaking this season....MLK, and now this.

That also underscores John's point that the atmosphere seems to have parted ways with la nina a bit, in sharp contrast to the early season. You'd expect that more in a modest modoki el nino like 2015.

And just like 2014-2015, I focused on the wrong driver in the NAO/PV.

I understand that. 24-26 is the window for the PNA flex....not a huge deal over 3-4 days, anyway.

East of ORH, def.

I almost favor that...told you earlier, I have been keying in on early March since last fall. Always thought that was the best window with highest ceiling of the winter in a general sense.

No, 110.

Sales people....weather takes you can sell.

2014. I agree.

Yea, that is the first real threat that I am eying.

I'll need that to get the outlook anything over a C to C-......really mixed results this season.

Yea, recycling, as well......I will probably prep it all at night, and put out in AM.