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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eastern Mass got screwed in 12/30/00.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll aim for middayish....hopefully a threat to track, but I have a feeling December starts slowly and mild.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's a horrible analog..flawed, sure, but there are certainly much worse.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The PNA and PDO are not as highly correlated as many think.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The last two years are def. decent analogs.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I want for October:
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I prefer 40s and overcast in the fall.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I believe there is some sort of negative correlation between October and the winter, while there is a positive correlation between November and winter. But the October snow argument is a myth.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. I think 2000 evolved like that.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS thinks I am on the right track for Novie:
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfect. That should do it-
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I need October to warm up in the east, and cool off in the west for my analogs to continue looking good.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    He has said he like 2000-2001 as an analog.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you mentioned "now that October SAI is out", like it matters what it is mid month...maybe I read too much into it...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    So 12/10 @ Funky's...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mowed today
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are have way through the month....I would hold off on using the SAI.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    We usually do Funky Murphy's...
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly how I feel. Everyone shuns it once they realize it isn't the silver bullet of seasonal forecasting. It's just another tool...like the QBO, etc
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    So wasn't conjuring up electricity hundreds of years ago.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's worth checking before you go through any editing trouble because believe it or not, there is actually symmetry between my concurrent analogs, and low ACE, high solar years.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good job. I like your analogs, but I'm not sure why you chose to disregard low ACE based on an increase in activity. We are still definitely low ACE. I would also be careful about implying that this will be a bonafide moderate la nina because its struggling to even get there in terms of ONI. I think Hunga Tonga is a wild card in terms of precip that needs to be considered.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I guess people want to stray from the usual spot?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It always was more about the rate of change....ie SAI, more then the actual cover (SCE). The people claiming its worthless are every bit as ridiculous as those claiming its gospel. It's one damn tool.
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