40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I said earlier...with that PAC look, not sure we would want an NAO block this far north. I mean, I guess we could still get porked by a stray lobe, but its tougher...

Yea, I agree. That is from my outlook back in November....the SSW/blocking didn't work out, but sensible result could still be good.

Not much to tell....just basically thinking out loud. But it is a year I will take a look depending how things shake out.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-coming-thaw-does-not-portend-end-of.html

YES. Agree.....I am actually glad that the blocking has not materialized, or we may have more of an issue up here.

This I agree with.....but I do not envision a PD 1, Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 deal, where it gets shunted south of us. Believe me, the way that this winter has gone for me, I would call for that at least excuse imaginable...but I just do not see that.

Doubt it.

I think the PV would have to drop really far to the south for that, which would be difficult given how potent it is right now....this is entirely Pacific driven. I don't see this as a suppression issue for SNE.

Lights and clothing off, siren on.

Looks like GEFS. #nudityinbrooklyn

Maybe 10m from sea level, so you're ripping at 1000' in the Tolland Alps.

I think its both....depends on which season, but generally speaking, east-based la nina events, like modoki el nino events, tend to be less pervasive forces in the atmosphere (though this one was very prominent early on)....so it makes sense that some of the disconnect from la nina climo may be a byproduct of that. But its also due to the fact that the forcing tends to make it farther to the east, closer to the dateline in east-based la nina events, like Scott was illustrating via VP image. Anyway, just as you say that everything is caused by an event in the atmosphere, I am of the opinion that there is rarely one "silver bullet" or "smoking gun", so to speak. In fact, its usually an agglomeration of factors working in concert and vying for proxy. The HC stuff totally makes sense to me...my aim wasn't to dispute that in any way....just want to be careful not to overattribute phenomena to it.

I think what we have this season is an eastward biased cool ENSO overlaid onto spiking solar, so we have the favorable PAC interludes, with tempered blocking due to the rising solar. The strat vortex has remain robust due to the sun IMO....so when the tropo vortex was somewhat dysregulated early on, it wasn't well coupled, but now that its recovered they have aligned.

East Pacific (EP) La Ninas East Pacific events are "characterized by the cooling SST anomaly center confined to the EP east of 150°W and relatively weak SST anomaly observed over the CP". They decay more quickly overall. These canonical la nina events are theorized to be relegated largely to the eastern Pacific due to the fact that they are a byproduct of the thermocline dynamics present in the Walker Cycle", which is explained in the ENSO & Tropical Background addendum. Here is a composite of cool ENSO events meeting this criteria: Note that the warmer anomalies near the dateline ensure that forcing remains over the central and western Pacific, similar to the weaker la nina composite. Sinking air that discourages convective forcing is focused well east of the dateline. Also evident is that the Aleutian ridge focuses more to the northwest relative to the modoki, cp event, which will be illustrated when that particular composite is reviewed. This often entails a protrusion of said ridge into the polar region at times, which likely contributes to the lower heights over the mid latitudes: Note again the similarities to the weak la nina H5 composite that was comprised in the intensity segment of the discussion. Obviously that is because all of these events were weak, however, there are some stronger basin wide events that were still decidedly biased east. Two such events there were referenced earlier are the strong la nina events of 1955-1956 and 2010-2011, which were both fairly cold across the eastern US and featured a great deal of blocking. Both of these have been designated as mixed-type "hybrid" events.

East-based la nina events have always been more prone to poleward Aleutian ridging....I noted numerous examples spanning back decades in my work last fall. Again, not doubting the Hadley cell research, but cold ENSO episodes of this ilk have always strayed from the la nina baseline, historically speaking.

What is your average? 70-75"? Very doable...

I agree. This was the next sentence: The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather. Obviously the PV isn't going to play the crucial role that I thought it would, but I could still see a snap back to warmth later in the month.

What a sicko....I see the little sparkle in your eyes lol

John, what are your thoughts on the SSW failure? I suspect the sun activity uptick had an influence there. I was pretty confident we would see a SSW judging from my analogs, but clearly going to be a miss.

I actually did favor the Pacific becoming favorable again in early March, but like I said, the big SSW attributable blocking isn't materializing....from early last Novie: March 2022 Outlook March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011 The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically. Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement.

Yea, March 2014 was much worse...2015 was just frustratingly underwhelming for me....that record snowpack just slowly rotted out.

Yea, I remember Steve doing well....it was good across the southern half of SNE.

Yea, once in a lifetime mid season with a shitty December and March IMBY.

I had 9" with no events over 2". That month is the reason why 1995-1996 is still my #1.

In a 2014-2015 kind of way....for the wrong reason. I had SSW and NAO blocking....but sensible weather could be similar to that which I expected.