40/70 Benchmark

Golf isn't my thing, so I'm out. I'll try for a more conventional GTG later in the fall.

Humidity really down...feels great.

Its tame if the east coast doesn't get a cat 3

Get his number?

Hopefully we can get this Pamela Anderson pattern during the cold season.

I haven't minded this summer at all to this point. Can't complain about some dews in July....it hasn't been bad.

Yea, my area, too. I measured .16" at midnight, and got drenched, thereafter. Will have to check the gage when I get home tonight.

I was surprised by how much it rained last night...poured for a while.

There are some signs that this la nina may try to go more central based than last year's, which was heavily eastern biased. That would likely mean a pretty good likelihood of a better December and worse mid season relative to last year. Caveat being that la nina should also be less prominent, which inherently makes ENSO more of a wildcard.

Yea, Cosgrove has been all over a subpar tropical season in terms of activity, but not necessarily level of impact, as of course it only takes one. He has been on quite a heater over the past few years. I strongly recommend his stuff.

I don't think this will be like last year's la nina in the sense that it will not be as prominent a player across the hemisphere...IOW, we may see more variation in the pattern. It isn't going to be as pervasive a driver.

It's going to be pretty modest next winter...its not a "game over" proposition. We just had a weak el nino a few years ago act more like an el nino...it can go both ways. That said, I wouldn't expect a monster mid atl snow season. Can't necessarily say the same for 2023-2024.

Count me out

I think the subsurface is just insurance against la nina going nuts.

No worries, do whatever gets your rocks off....judment free zone this day and age.

Here is one for @forkyforkto link in OT

Just about to the time of year when 80s are climo.

Yea, 2010-2011 was my primary ENSO analog...I agree, there. In hindsight, I feel like a moron for mixing up December and January considering that 2010-2011 with the epic January was so high on my list of ENSO analogs.

Yea, tomorrow will suck.

That's about the ceiling for this time of year...lay out on the naked and hope to view an ominous cloud that will look not so ominous as it makes it over the ORH hills on approach.

Yea, I don't get my rocks off by staring at fat men's sweat stains like some....this is fine by me.

I may have to just move to Moose up

Heat queens be queening, temp jack be jacking....me? I'm still smiling....

I don't think it will be anything more than a weak la nina...in fact, I'm pretty confident of that. This is not a bad development....take a weak la nina this season, and by punting on el nino for another year, it really sets us up for 2023-2024 with an easterly QBO and likely modoki el nino. Think of this as the bridge year, and all the chips are laid out in 2023-2024. As for this year more specifically, the PAC won't be as hostile as it was last season, so its not like we won't have a shot. One thing to watch for is that this could be more of a central-based modoki la nina than last year, which was east-based. That in a vacuum is not good, but its not that big of a deal when the ENSO signal itself is relatively meager, such as it should be this winter. If it is more central based, I feel like this year will be more front loaded than last year, so it maybe a better holiday season and a more subpar mid season relative to last year. The one and only reason last season was not an unmitigated disaster the likes of 2011-2012 is because the la nina was very east-biased, which allowed for that poleward Aleutian ridge mid season to provide a nice wintery stretch....without that, it would have been 3 months of "shut off the lights and close the door".