I honestly am not sure I have ever seen it this bad in my area...if we whiff on Tuesday, I don't think there will be any question that this is the worst that I have seen it.
Possible, this is a hypothesis that will be researched. The amount of water vapor blasted into the atmosphere was significant, but was it enough to force suppression in the N. Atlantic basin? I'd buy into some influence support tanking ENSO for an abnormally strong third-year La Nina. The timing of a hyperactive EPAC in July was pretty wonky though. Really everything is a bit wack and needs looked into.
Yea, nobody knows for sure and its probably a combination of factors.
He doesn't issue winter outlooks and I honestly don't follow him too much any more....since he left this forum, most of his stuff on Twitter is really complex and somewhat esoteric tropical phenomena that really just glazes my eyes over. That said, brilliant weather mind, agreed.
I wasn't calling Tom out and he owes us nothing.....allowing us the privilege of reading his work over the past several years was a real gift. I was simply speculating on the rationale as to why he abruptly stopped not only contributing weather insight, but any type of engagement whatsoever. Just thought it was strange to suddenly go mute and lurk....wasn't meant to be an indictment.
I don't argue your point, but the shearing last December was the result of a record RNA abutting a solid NAO block. That would have sheared on Ginxy's great, great, great, great, great grand dogs back in 1633.
Lucky you weren't allergic that could have been bad. I got stung by one yellow jacket as a kid, and I had to go to the ER because my hand blew up. If I had gotten stung 14 times, I would have been in serious peril.
I'm not sure this research really offers any new findings.....+QBO/la nina correlate to a stronger PV, and -QBO/la nina to a weaker PV, but as last season illustrated, this is but one piece to the puzzle.