40/70 Benchmark

I think the strongly negative IOD and MEI are a reflection of this past year, not necessarily of what will be several months down the line.

I am firmly in the cold-neutral to weak la nina camp for winter, but I would not rule out enough residual coolness lingering into early winter for a moderate "peak", though I don't think it would mean anything.

It will be a tricky season because we are backing out of the ENSO state, as opposed to the atmosphere riding the coat tails of a burgeoning event.....thus I do not feel as though the forcing will be commensurate with a lot of the global indicators that normally provide insight into the strength of ENSO.....kind of like seeing this big bulge of warmth in the GOA, but knowing that the pattern has already changed and the residual SST pattern is just a reflection of what was, not what will be.

It could....I mean, its moderate now. Depends on how quickly it can decay later this fall and into early winter. I think the strongly negative IOD belies the ultimate intensity of the la nina this cold season....be careful about interpreting the rather robust -IOD as an ensuing major la nina event. The IOD is also influenced by the timing of ENSO events, not just the strength....thus earlier onset la nina is correlated to more robust -IOD events. This of course is a well-established, multi year cold ENSO. Its later onset ENSO events that are less likely to manifest in changes to the IOD. I am finding some really interesting stuff concerning the IOD...I suspected that -IOD was correlated to el nino modoki due to the co occurrence of increased convection over the W PAC, and early returns are that I am right. Just another feather in the cap of an el nino modoki once this cold ENSO decays during the coming winter. Do you have a good link for IOD data?

Save the gas and order the jersey online.

I think you guys could get in on some of the good early season stretch.....may not be a disaster.

Colder December would also fit with the theme of a more central based cold ENSO relative to last year.

I topped off at 95.1 yesterday...probably a similar high today, but more humid. 87.3 off of a low of 70.5, at present.

That is precisely how I would run global warming if given the choice....structure it so that the obnoxious pipe bursting nights are fewer and farther between, while minimizing impact otherwise.

93.6, down from 94.1

Cool seeing ORH and BEV with the same degree of relief from the heat by different means.

Plenty of time....most sultry day is tomorrow, so check then.

I'm on four. Yea, its more feast or famine for sure, but like I said.....I'll take that. I don't mind sacrificing some currier and ives days if it means turning the 15" big dog, seasonal capstone from a 15" deal into a 25" mutant.

Personally, I like the change so far....less high end cold, which is obnoxious, and less days of pedestrian snow cover in exchange for a higher frequency of extreme events. I'll take that trade off....keep the 5 days of 3" snow cover and give me the 2'+ blitz.

I buy that for 1995-1996, but 2010-2011 was actually pretty N stream dominant.

Yes, they have increased, but not as drastically as the mins. Just taking the overall mean temp makes it appear worse than it is for that reason.

I may be wrong on this, but I feel like global warming would have more dire consequences faster if it were not so heavily weighted in nighttime mins. This is why I feel like sometimes there is a contingent of folks that overstate and catastrophize the impact. I understand that eventually it will matter more, but this is probably why our snowfall hasn't suffered to this point (well, everyone's except mine)....the fact that it radiates to 15 instead of 10 on a clear night isn't exactly a deal-breaker. However, the increased insolation that is not emitted does in fact result in less snow cover via a larger window of time for melting.

I think at this point I'll take my chances on Kev's '38 redux.

Yes, this I agree with....all I meant. I never debated lower snow cover days....if they had said lower snowfall, then that would be incorrect....at least to this point.

I understand that...I know they meant snow cover days, which is correct. What I said was that if a warmer gulf stream is leading to warmer summers, then its due to warmer night time mins.

Yea, totally on board with this....but I am willing to bet that if you examined purely daytime max temps, the northeast is not leading the GW charge.

I do not buy that summers are getting warmer due to increased flow off of the ocean....if they are, then its almost entirely due to warmer nighttime lows. I could fathom that for winter...fine. At the end of the day, I feel as though much of our warming, at least here locally, is manifesting itself via milder nighttime lows. This article would make sense in that respect since it would be logical for more marine influence to contribute to a low of 14 at Logan during an arctic outbreak, as opposed to what would have been 12 40 years ago.

You need to either move, or find a new weather niche.

Yea, I remember hearing on the news that it would remain in the 70's, and then being surprised that it was already down to 70 a bit after midnight...got down to 66.0 IMBY....granted I radiate pretty well, but the night definitely didn't retain the heat as well as forecast even on a regional scale.