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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I think its time to heed that warning. Its not handling the vort any differently from the EURO.
  2. Better shot of that is trending this N so that the mid level warm front aligns with the best low level fronto in SE NH.
  3. Of course it doesn't shift the coastal front east at all...if anything, a bit warmer in the low levels.
  4. I agree on that...just analyzing the surface fronto aspect. Need to watch residence time of front N of me, too....hopefully its short. This will be a really enjoyable event for me....as long as it doesn't camp out over Salem, NH until 1pm tomorrow lol
  5. Guidance often lacks the resolution to precisely portray that....I'm not sure it has a lot of residence time west of me, but knowing my luck, it will.
  6. The cold is is more prominent and settled in across NNE, so I feel like the best surface fronto will be over SE NH and SW ME. My area should get some, but best naked twister is probably north of me because there is more of a gradient there.
  7. Euro has that CF hang N of me over interior se NH, but I'll bet its closer to my area.
  8. My guess is Cobb....looks pretty similar to NARCAN. I like that map....pretty realistic...except maybe too high down south.
  9. Yea, even as a hobbyist that is frustrating, so I can only imagine as a pro....when people hold you to every reaction to every piece of data that rolls in. I just said yesterday, only thing that matters is what I blog.
  10. I notice that the EURO and NAM both place the primary H85 low across the southern end of lake Ontario now...looks like they ultimately compromised on that vort placement.
  11. I have been saying this would happen for several days. Always plan for between .75 and 1" QPF with these...ignore higher runs.
  12. I will do fine here....probably get some sleet, but not too worried. I would rather deal with this, then the coastal front over Norwell.
  13. Yea, either things are bumping north, or we're neurotic, and yesterday's UK nailed it.
  14. I agree the NAM was crap...all I mean is some of the other guidance will tic north and compromise some. I think the south trend is done, save for the NAM.
  15. I said earlier, it's too early to claim the warm tics did not materialize.
  16. Yes . Even if I get a bit less...it will be over a shorter window. Blizzard just wasn't that impressive here.
  17. Yea, no complaints with this one. Just messing....though I obviously would like to JP for once.
  18. One of these seasons, a 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 order will be restored and my god, I will revel.
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