40/70 Benchmark

At least its raining draft picks for you in AmericanMoneyball

I managed not a drop on Monday.

I'm still waiting for the post in which you emphatically link Halloween candy to CC.

Wonderful...haven't seen any yet.

Everyone stay safe and keep an eye to the sky out of an abundance of caution.

Yea, sensible weatherwise it has been nice...just can't wait to get through the first half of August....fewer humid days, and get the back to school and Halloween materials out in stores.

Yea, but at least winter has the allure of potential...you know your fate from April through Novie.

Well, summer is boring at baseline, so its not a shock.....but this warm season has been especially mundane. There is a reason why I check out in March.

This has to be the most boring past five months of weather locally that I can recall throughout my entire life. We can't even muster up tropical delusions of grandeur because there hasn't been a bonafide tropical cyclone.

I'm sure it will be hot...maybe even worse than hell week, last week...but that 108 degree crap is model fiction.

You sound like me by the end of January

I def. wouldn't expect a repeat of Snowmageddon any time soon, but a similar type of ENSO event may be in the offing.

Why? I thinks even bolder to favor an active season, at this point...

I think it will. I don't think the polar domain will be particularly conducive this season, however, I do expect a favorable Pacific early on in the season...if we can get some NAO early on, then December could be very good.

Do you feel that there are some physical processes at play with respect to the linkage between the prior warm season's ACE and the overall tenor the following winter? I suspect that there are, but its difficult to postulate exactly what said phenomena are. My crude guess has to do with the ocean currents rolling forward into a certain set of ocean-atmosphere coupling(s) across the hemisphere.

We do not have a strong la nina...not sure where that is coming from. MEI is high, which means this particular cold ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere, but the ONI is NOT strong...its borderline weak- moderate at the moment. Yea, modoki la nina, as with el nino, is a different ballgame and applying stereotypical ENSO climo in that case is often a fool's errand due to disparate convective forcing schemes. Completely buy more of a modoki la nina this season, which likely means a more wintery December and milder mid winter season in the east. Beginning next spring into the early summer, I expect the strongest positive anomalies to shift west and be joined by some other positive anomalies trending southward from the N PAC, as the la nina decays, which will segue into a rather healthy modoki el nino next year...probably the most robust since 2009-2010, and 2002-2003 before that.

1966-1967 actually featured well above average snows in my neck of the woods, but its negated by the very paltry 1980-1981 season. 2003-2004 was warm neutral, so 2004-2005 was not technically a double dip el nino....FWIW.

Right, but as we saw last season, these are just probabilities and there are not guarantees.

Yes. 2000-2001 was more impressive for N ORH county...the pack was higher water content than 2014-2015, too.

Nor do I...was just saying that that is what will determine the ultimate tenor of the winter.

He had a death in the family last week, so that maybe why he's been more scare around here.

It was sprinkling outside in my area at like 1230am.

Marine influence on that SW flow must have rescued you....been well over 90 for 6 consecutive days here.

Bleh. Hope for a furnace over AK

This is where the upside lays this year...agree. The northeast can still do very well with this combo, as evidenced by the 2013-2015 stretch. PNA would determine whether its a taint-fest like 2018-2019, or its more of a snowier period, like 2013-2015.