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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    My guess is it will be 30-31....I can tell you that my spot here in Methuen radiates very well. I'm a 150' "valley" in the midst of a bit of a 250'-350' "spine". Obviously these are all relative terms, but it makes a difference during prime radiative conditions.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    When I drop my mothee off later after the baby shower, I will check my old Davis.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    28.9 for the low. growingseasoncancelled
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    29.8 30.0/29.7 currently....hard, killing freeze. Deck iced up.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not opposed to a relatively mild December and I still definitely favor a warm-neutral ENSO. My point was I don't think the ship has entirely sailed on a marginal el nino. As far as the sst anomalies go, a +.55C in 1950 is means the same thing in 2019...sure, overall temps are warming, but anomalies are relative.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    3 of your 6 best ENSO matches went on to become el nino events. Interesting that you link mild Decembers in east to warm region 4. When region 4 is above +0.5c in latter September as it was this season, the odds are very high for el nino since 1990. I listed the data set in my blog. Full of strong Ninos, and weak ones that were cold in the east, save for 1994.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd take the former over the latter....92-93 was bookended by two of the best events of my life.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am probably the most indecisive at this juncture that I have been since I delved deeply into seasonal outlooks 5 years ago, but I don't see anything that screams "interior".
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the thoughts. Hope you're right. I also don't really see an interior ne winter like many. We'll see.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The fast flow can be a good thing or a bad thing in relation to track. It depends on the degree of phasing and percise location and overall speed of trough axis.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think speed of movement is that big of a deal. Its all about dynamics because most of the snow usually falls in a 6-12 hr window, anyway. How impactful if is that extra 6-12 hours of shreded returns? This is why we continue to get huge events amidst the compressed background flow. Now, if you want to argue that the fast flow will make phasing more difficult, maybe, but I don't think we are there yet.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I had to say right now, I'd probably go +.35 to +.45C NDJ peak.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    1969-70 has been high on my list all fall.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got last season and hurled my fried dough everywhere
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some thoughts I had on ENSO....looks modoki to me at the moment....but last season is fresh in my mind. Very open to alternative lines of thinking. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html Of course, the elephant in the room is that the most likely outcome is probably neutral, but I am not ready to discount the shot of a last moment, meager el nino.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The way I see it, when region 4 is this warm, it goes onto to become a cold modoki season if it remains modest (it will, if it even makes el nino). The others were mega el ninos and aren't applicable. Only mild mild comp is 1994....but we are going to have to see region 1.2 warm pretty dramatically throughout October, or else that loses relevance fast. The subsurface does not look conducive for that to happen right now.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't rule out a weak el nino yet.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks pretty modoki to me at the moment...caveat being that these meager el nino events are more prone to alternate forcing sources. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This tropical season reminds me of last winter....ton of activity and looks fine from afar, but few systems took a favorable track. 1995 like.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why do you think that would be terrible for the west? Volatile NAO should yield a stormy look.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weak el nino.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, def. looking more neutral...which side is debatable. Gotta be careful with the subsurface becuase it doesn't always continue to translate to the surface, especially with negative SOI maybe keeping rosby waves in check. I've caught myself snickering at IRI before, but they usually end up more correct than we are.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't think warm neutral is insane, but we'll see. I'm certainly betting against a classified la nina.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good reason why I hate 93-94. All I hear is how epic it was.....I was like 15" above average with no events over 12".
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html
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