40/70 Benchmark

Looked like .75" to me.

Updated December thoughts...not much change. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html The early December storm depends on how quickly that ridging node over Greenland displaces eastward.....faster will result in further north redevelopment, which is pretty much what I favor. However more reluctance for that to cede ground is more of a sne swfe or even late-bloom redeveloper. I like Maine most for that. Changeable NAO early month should trend positively as the polar stratosphere warms, and the pacific grows more favorable. We need the Pacific to drive especially mid December onward. Thaw later December or early January as meager warm ENSO forcing fades, and Pacific grows more hostile in advance of any sensible impacts from downward propagating polar stratospheric warmth. (December 15 maturation)? I would give the reemergence of any polar blocking until a good 3-4 weeks after that December 15 date to materialize, thereafter we await blocking. December is Pacific driven, with any major coastal snows resulting from transient neg NAO node teaming with favorable Pac between 12/5 and 12/15. However I am more confident in major Archambault potential nearer the end of this period, as maturation of any potential SSW could enhance the MJO in phase 8 on or about December 15th. Thereafter, we trend milder. Pacific deteriorates late December or early January, and then we thaw while hopefully awaiting downward propagation of mid December SSW to take hold mid January. Second half is blocking dependent with more la nina like Pacific. Just my two cents-

You, yea.....questionable here.

Right now, I don't like it for sne. Ridge node over Greenland needs to hang in longer.

I understand that, but my climo is a few Inches and I saw merely a few flakes. Relative whimper...especially considering the magnitude of the cold. It is what it is.

Its been a whimper for SNE.

I think he's just pointing out that it wont be another 2015, which I agree with.

Try now....PM storage was full

Probably.....hopefully we have it-

Back at it again..

Yes, Clarke's...

Same...thankfully, I'm not forecasting that.

Its a little more...forecast is slightly above. That season was normal to slightly below. We need second half blocking....that is the upward variance. Pacific won't be epic like 05 and 15..at least not for the whole season..

No. Not that warm.

No worries....its relevant.

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.

Gotcha. I'm not a big math guy....social worker by trade. I can do that in the future, but the forecast amounts vs actual are there for everyone to see. I'm quite happy with my level of success overall, last year not withstanding.

Thanks, but I'll leave it. Forecast error for me is the percentage that verified seasonal snowfall totals deviated from my forecast range. Regardless, the forecast and verified totals are there to see. It was bad in sne. I focus most on snowfall, and its much less in the northeast than last season's forecast. Additionally, the forecast is not as cold as the composite maps...I specified that. Last season, I forecast an epic second half..this season, its onky salavagable with blocking. It wasn't that warm in the east last year. Good luck-

Thanks, Tom. I have learned alot from your work, as always.

Like I just said in mid atl forum, it was difficult for me to communicate the potential of the second half, while concomitantly conveying that it was lower confidence due to the reliance upon the onset of blocking. I am more confident in the PNA period. I feel at least some blocking materializes second half....but it will suck if it doesn't. Should be some NAO in Dec, too, but transient.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” ? ? New York, NY 20-30" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 17-27" ? ? Baltimore, MD 15-25” ? ? Washington, DC 15-25” ? ? Albany, NY 65-75” ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60” ? ? Providence, RI 40-50” ? ? Worcester, MA 70-80” ? ? Tolland, CT 60-70" ? ? Methuen, MA 65-75” ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30” ? ? Burlington, VT 80-90" ? ? Portland, ME 70-80” ? ? Concord, NH 65-75” ? ? Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 ? ? ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.5C NDJ ONI .50 Modoki ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 ? ?

I wasn't suprised at all.

@raindancewx Thanks alot for the awesome data updates....very much appreciated. Tough to keep up as much this fall with a newborn. I remember looking at how paltry the ECMWF was with the ENSO peak last year and Isummarily dismissed it, which I seldom do. I was waiting to include it in my last blog update, but ended up leaving it out. Lol