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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not opposed to a relatively mild December and I still definitely favor a warm-neutral ENSO. My point was I don't think the ship has entirely sailed on a marginal el nino. As far as the sst anomalies go, a +.55C in 1950 is means the same thing in 2019...sure, overall temps are warming, but anomalies are relative.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    3 of your 6 best ENSO matches went on to become el nino events. Interesting that you link mild Decembers in east to warm region 4. When region 4 is above +0.5c in latter September as it was this season, the odds are very high for el nino since 1990. I listed the data set in my blog. Full of strong Ninos, and weak ones that were cold in the east, save for 1994.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    1969-70 has been high on my list all fall.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some thoughts I had on ENSO....looks modoki to me at the moment....but last season is fresh in my mind. Very open to alternative lines of thinking. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html Of course, the elephant in the room is that the most likely outcome is probably neutral, but I am not ready to discount the shot of a last moment, meager el nino.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This tropical season reminds me of last winter....ton of activity and looks fine from afar, but few systems took a favorable track. 1995 like.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why do you think that would be terrible for the west? Volatile NAO should yield a stormy look.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weak el nino.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, def. looking more neutral...which side is debatable. Gotta be careful with the subsurface becuase it doesn't always continue to translate to the surface, especially with negative SOI maybe keeping rosby waves in check. I've caught myself snickering at IRI before, but they usually end up more correct than we are.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't think warm neutral is insane, but we'll see. I'm certainly betting against a classified la nina.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd quite frankly be stunned if la nina materialized.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its epic here...now watch, he'll spit the bit after nailing the terd last season. Lol
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would not be at all upset with a blend of 1992-1993 and 2004-2005 for winter.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was very skeptical, but he did well last season. Still not my preferred methodology, but he def. has my attention this season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, big -EPO and ENSO strength is about all I had right last season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the clarification. Maybe I am wrong, but I did not see the issue, at least not predominately, as a 2001-2002 type relentless PAC firehose that eradicates N America of cold, last year. We had plenty of cold, but in the absence of a pos PDO, the cold dumped west, and with no Atl blocking, there was nothing to hold it and prevent storms from displacing it.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the clarification.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    What does this have to do with episodes of PNA during boreal winter?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Care to elaborate?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe another back-loaded winter. Thanks for that research. Some Pacific help could mean a bit more of a favorable early season regime for the east coast relative to last season, though. IOW, while we may have to wait on any NAO help until later in the season, I think the PDO will be higher.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lol SNE would take that blend. We'll see what happens....still so early.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully we can take another stab at weak el nino this year....I like 1.2 and 3 starting cold, anyway. Thanks for the feedback, Raindance...good stuff.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What are your thoughts on 1969-1970? Just starting to look at things, and this season catches my eye for some obvious and not so obvious reasons. Good work last year. I have learned a great deal from your way of looking at things.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I remember you posting about that. May very well hold some weight.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, no one nailed it....some obviously better than others, but even those that got it "right" missed some key points. I was awful.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. Very solid contributor.
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