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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said, jabs like this here and there are common place through mid September....doesn't mean the back isn't bending.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect that to be kind of theme throughout the cold season...been saying that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the active stretch started with Andrew and kicked into overdrive in 1995, so we are about due.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We've kept all of last season's heat, and lost the active tropics....miserable summer meteorologically speaking.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just think we need to keep it real....do things look great for the mid Atlantic this winter? No; he's right about that. But lets not get carried away with la nina and imply that there is very little chance of any snow or appreciable cold. Right now, there is plenty of evidence that that will not be the case.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    The building codes are better, so we won't see the volume of homes rendered uninhabitable like we did during Andrew, but the damage potential is still greater due to the higher population.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have at most another two weeks of summer left.....I don't need to look at long range charts to tell you that. Just like we can't have sustained winter beyond mid March. First two weeks of the month is fair game.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have a friend from grad school is from Pakistan...hopefully her family is okay over there.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No chance we have another la nina next season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of the strongest la ninas in history? I don't agree with that at all.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it was Hurricane Danny that came right into Mobile Bay in July of 1997...only a cat 1, but was a decent little event.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    My bad, complete "whoosh" on my part.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This honestly isn't directed at anyone in particular, but as a general rule, I wish there was less twitter regurgitation and more independent critical thinking. Its brutal.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way. Do me a favor and quote me come December.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyway, I'll revisit this later in the season and have some quoting to do.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course there is some subsurface cold...its a la nina. But the fact of the matter is that the SURFACE has temporarily plateaued. Is it done strengthening? Highly unlikely given the calendar, but I'm not sure you or he realize how difficult it will be to peak at a strong ONI....again, NOT weekly....but ONI. And not all of that subsurface cold will upwell to the surface.....we've been hearing about these easterly trades for weeks causing upwelling, yet the surface just warmed rather significantly.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, notice the past tense, as in restrengthened. See, this is a perfect example of why you draw the ire of some posters....you just aren't very objective because you like to cherry pick data as part of an incessant, passive aggressive assault against winter enthusiasts.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It does....depends on the season. Sure, it doesn't radiate as well at night anymore, but lets not get carried away. Falls have been very changeable...agreed.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Going to be some big coastals, too.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No tweets mentioning the weakening of la nina? 17AUG2022 20.1-0.8 24.3-0.8 25.7-1.2 27.7-1.0 24AUG2022 20.3-0.5 24.5-0.4 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.8
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I use Twitter for two things: 1) Later in fall season I do pull a lot of useful info to use in the winter outlook. 2) Reports to Box, usually during winter.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    2018-2019 was a page right out of the 1980s playbook. It had plenty of the ingredients needed to be a good season, but the lack of NAO and absence of fortuitous timing killed us. We just needed a little help with some better timing to couple an EPO cold dump with a storm, but we just couldn't do it. You need some luck without an NAO and we just didn't have it.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    The cold will probably load west of us again most of the time, but the question becomes how much resistance is it met with trying to bleed s and e. Again, good problem to have because we should have the source. We both know it can be worse.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....just causing a stir amongst the weenies getting carried away with ENSO....the usual shit. We go through this phase every year....the point of the fall where some master of the universe on twitter posts some esoteric chart with wind anomalies, and has everyone expecting the strongest la nina/el nino on record.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I note that all ENSO zones are up fairly appreciably this week......maybe a respite from the usual cavalry of pro ENSO Eric Webb/Ben Knoll tweets? 17AUG2022 20.1-0.8 24.3-0.8 25.7-1.2 27.7-1.0 24AUG2022 20.3-0.5 24.5-0.4 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.8
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