40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I'm just at wit's end with boring dating back to last winter.....the season ended with a whimper, then we can't so much as buy a rain drop or even any viable tropical entity, threat to land be damned.
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That wasn't directed at you, or anyone in particular. Just a general sentiment.
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I'm just in complete "believe when see" mode with respect to the tropics right now. I don't care to look, or even discuss any model output and you frankly couldn't pay me two give a rat's ass until something actually develops and is flourishing on the map in real time. I just have no interest in the latest 240 hour artifact of your laptop whipping up the virtual Gulf.
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Usually its not a big deal because SSTs are very malleable, but maybe early in the season the coast has a bit more trouble than usual...it should also aid baroclinicity.
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Wake me Up....when September Ends....
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
If the tropics fail, its brutal. -
Obs/Disc Unless we pull off a tropical hail Mary, this is one to fast forward through.
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Always instills a lot of confidence when you need to long for a DGEX like extension in order to see the potential fruits of the season.
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I have a feeling MBY finally gets a good soaking today.
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In the past when that was the case, people just said that. You would also think maybe his blog would go paywall for something, but just abandoned. Strange.
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I was wondering if he took the reduced level of that success with that last forecast to heart and became frustrated.
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Yea, the whole "fear regression" argument is done on a regional level...a few narrow swaths have avoided it, but not the majority of us.
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His last prediction was actually pretty flawed...he had very +NAO for 2020-2021 and it was negative.
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Well, the NDJ period almost has it on the west coast, but other than that, the EURO really doesn't...but the JMA almost looks like it has an Aleutian low, and the UK has all lower heights to the south, and higher heights to the north, but maybe that is just a flat Aleutian ridge and that fades into higher SE heights. This graphics on Copernicus aren't the greatest, either.
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@ORH_wxman @CoastalWxIs it me, or do some of these long range seasonal models look more el ninoish than la nina?
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Congrats. I hereby change his name to Stein.
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I swear if Kev ever gets a dog it will be named Epstein.
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Okay, so you mean sensible obs are not consistent with the teleconnection indictors. I think that make sense because I think that atmosphere may start to part ways with la nina a little faster than the ocean does.
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Gloria tracked out there an it was pretty good in this area. The wind field expands to the east, while contracting to the west with extratropical transition.
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I remember I was expecting something like 12/1970 for December heading into last winter, but the RNA porked me...it was too extreme.
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Even that would be NBD where I am.
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Why do you make a series of posts supporting +NAO/AO/EPO, and then make another post citing the tendency for a -NAO/EPO? You are difficult to follow sometimes...maybe its me, and I'm missing something.
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One thing I am very confident of with respect to this winter is that there will be a cold source near by.....how often and for how long it will be able to penetrate this far SE, and the mean storm track are up for debate. But I do not see this being a 2011-2012 type dud....we, especially you, should be in the game more often than not.
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You know when Eric Fisher tells you that its going to cool down, it is going to cool down....guy is like snowman19 with a met degree.
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What an eventful "hump day" you had
