40/70 Benchmark

The QBO is but one small piece....its not the ultimate determinant. Lot of help the -QBO was last season. I feel like the PDO may remain a bit more negative than it was that year, but its not an awful analog for starters.....I haven't really delved in much yet, though.

Cry me a frigging river. You can have one from my string of shitty seasons that lasts four months.

The "scorched earth tour" means that he'd be on a rampage..IOW, very pissed off.

Well, if the warmth is ever going to win it will be from now through the next few weeks.....I would take that bet right along withy you.

You have positively got to be kidding me....you are one of the last few people in New England who should be on a scorched earth tour for anything concerning winter. You have above average snows every year.

Yea, my call is weak la nina peak to perhaps cold neutral for winter.

Agreed.

MJ MEI down to -1.9....lowest since ND 2010 and lowest on record for MJ dating back to 1948. Def. gives reason for pause on the el nino train of thought.

Clock is ticking on the window for extreme heat, but plenty of time for humidity....right into early October is fair game for that.

Sure, I would rather wall to wall fun and mayhem, too.....but if I have the option of 15" each month to average snowfall, or a 40" dump crowed by "lame", then I would take the latter. I prefer something memorable to fourth months of forgettable.

I don't disagree with the fun December vibe.

I'm sure we'll get a few weeks of humidity on the back half of summer....but we've had our fun. Its like, do you mind a shitty Feb-March if Dec and January pull 40" apiece?

The irony that once we begin to see some changes toward +PDO in the N PAC, then we finally get another period of RNA.

This summer has been lovely...no complaints. I hit 48 Saturday night.

I'll take the confidence one level further on this...its going to be 2023-2024 and it will be a moderate modoki....that is my educated hunch. Very good for this sub-forum. Considering that we have not had a bonafide el nino since the 2015-2016 meg-deal, the periodicity dictates that we should see a significant event. Nothing like 2015-2016, but at least moderately strong. You guys don't want it to remain weak because you get boned by the N steam, however, a moderately strong positive ENSO usually is accompanied by enough of a STJ presence to stack the snows further south into the mid atl. I think we will see that during winter 2023-2024.

I am with you on thinking either weak la nina of neutral....and nor would I rule out warm neutral. Weak la nina and warm neutral are the goal posts this year. I also think that the cool anomalies may be centered a bit more to the west than last season, which bodes well for a faster start to the season, and maybe a tamer mid portion of the winter.

Yea, we aren't getting that kind of drastic flip....also true that it was "only" a double dip la nina, but that is certainly not prohibitive of a similar type of modoki el nino for the 2023-2024 winter season. I don't expect it to remain a weak el nino because we haven't had a significant warm ENSO event since the 2015-2016 super el nino.

Oh, that is rainstorm? Yea, trolled the winter guys, too.

Yea, that's what I am getting at....activity level wise, it certainly was not tame....but in terms of lasting impact, last season may not have been tame, but it certainly wasn't anything memorable for most in this region....the thing is that that flooding occurred over such a densely populated area, otherwise no one would have batted an eye lash. But if you need to cite the total rainfall over a 60 day period to support your argument that it wasn't tame, then yea....lol.

Well, to be fair, I think there would be some skepticism if we had hit mid January with cold modeled in the long range after having had it either pushed back or not materializing all season to date. I'm sure at some point it will get warmer and more humid, but when and how much is TBD. I'll sell that modeled depiction.

I can't complain if it takes until peak climo to really crank up the dews.....even in the best seasons, we get it sooner or later. At least we're only about a month from Tip letting us know that his bum-bum was a bit less toasty when he sat down in his Volvo.

I get that significant amount of people were impacted very adversely by flooding, etc....but in terms of a truly devastating impact from a tropical cyclone in the traditional sense, we are still waiting for that. Once mother nature collects on that tab, we will know it because there will be no need to debate, or call anyone's attention to the borrough in NYC that had some flooding, or to the rainy 60 day period, etc. We will all remember it clear as day for the rest of our lives, and so won't our children and grandchildren. Good rule of thumb...when you need to remind people of an impact several months later, or cite the litany of reasons as to why you feel that it was impactful, then its probably not to the degree of impact to which people were referencing in the first place. It shouldn't need to be argued.

Well, I was obviously being sarcastic when referring to last year as tame from the standpoint of overall tropical activity.....but from an impact standpoint? At least in New England, I had already forgotten about last season. Left a lot on the table......I was all over that Henri head-fake. Lots of people fell for it in assuming a proficient recovery from shear in the mid latitudes, which is often a mistake. The most impressive impact last season in New England was the nor'easter in October. Nothing else was memorable for me.

The lack of activity in December was due to the compressed flow the big negative anomaly out west, and the transient neg NAO node later in the month. I think the imperfect phases later in the season were cyclogenesis defects that are prominent in the absence of high latitude blocking.

2009-2010, too. Its 2023-2024....my guess a moderate modoki el nino with above average snow from VA through ME.