40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, we will have piggish stretches like that this winter...its not going to be 1996, but it won't be 2012, either.
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Agree.
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30.4 for the low here.
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Good luck with everything, and congrats.
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It won't be out for about 2 weeks....I am just referring to my analog composite being on track with a milder October.
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I personally feel like the PDO is overrated, anyway.....the PNA, which is what is really important, can be out of sync with it quite often. PNA and EPO are where its at IMHO. PDO is a longer term, multi-decadal signal, like the AMO....its not really as important from a forecasting standpoint.
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This la nina is on life support, regardless of how long the SSTs remain below normal. Times, they are a changing.... You guys clean up next year, after a serviceable la nina season this year.
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This is good news AFAIC....means everything is on track. I'll do one more update tmw before go-time after Halloween. I'm pretty confident...famous last words...
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With urine in the snow on snowman19's lawn
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Maybe they forget it was also one of the coldest/snowiest decades in history for the east?
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He'd probably write it over about one summer of coc k.
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If he starts buying you brews at the GTG, you know whassup.
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I was gonna say...that is all you.
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There is no question CC is impacting everything, but the issue is that its extraordinarily difficult to assign proper attribution ratios, aside from maybe surface temp.
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Well, I think the subsurface does dictate the pattern indirectly speaking due to the fact that it modulates the sea surface given a favorable wind direction to facilitate upwelling....its all one giant feedback, clearly.
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While there is undoubtedly CC at play, the impact of weaker ENSO events has always been more diverse and diffuse.
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The only SSTs I even mention are ENSO....even the fabled N ATL tripole is overrated IMO....I think its a more worthwhile endeavor to study the subsruface.
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The point is many la nina seasons have a latitudinal gradient, so that is not the case.
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Yea, these are the nuances that can cause a shitty several years, which I have seen, though I know that not everyone has, regionally.
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All things being equal, I would still prefer el nino and and definitely pretty sick of cool ENSO, at this point.
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@ORH_wxman, do you have a link for the latest version of this Hovmoller?
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Yea, I have never understood the obsession with non-ENSO ssts....its relatively trivial.
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Toting the swampiest ass that has ever swamped....just leaving trails like a snail everywhere.
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Its not a done deal until the house considers it.
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He is, but if you read his work, it specifies that the +5ish warmth will be localized. His actual analog composite isn't that warm....the localized +5 crap was the hand drawn map.
