40/70 Benchmark

I'm really not impressed with him. He's been touting a strong la nina all fall...seems to be fond of clicks and follows.

I will use it as kind of an aside, ancillary tool, like the QBO. For instance, here is how I incorporated it last season: While it is clear that the polar vortex should not be overly consolidated early on in the season, a major disruption is far from imminent, and in fact, quite unlikely any time in the near future. Climatology dictates that any early season warming of the polar stratosphere is relatively unlikely to propagate downward and result in a severe disruption of the vortex. There are also a couple of notable metrics that imply that the vortex should endure any early assaults. According to research conducted by Dr. Judah Cohen, the Eurasian Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and the Snow Advance Index (SAI), which are both measures of the snow build up in Eurasia, are positively correlated to subsequent disregulation of the vortex. This season, the SCE is merely near normal and below that of many recent seasons. According to Cohen, the Snow Advance Index (SAI) is a paltry -1.4, both of which are suggestive that any major disruption of the polar vortex will occur later in the season rather than sooner. Thus its likely that any perturbations in the near future that aid in a wintery onset to the season are likely to be followed by a recovery and re-consolidation of the vortex as we approach the new year. However, there are mixed signals from Eurasia in the sense that during the month of October, a Eurasian snowfall dipole materialized that has been linked to a weaker polar vortex during the winter. Courtesy of Judah Cohen Although the piece also implies that such a phenomenon needs to be sustained throughout the month of November in order for the correlation to be viable, so this is something that bares watching. Given the preponderance of evidence between extended guidance and an already modestly perturbed polar vortex, confidence is above average that there will not be a strong vortex from the middle portion of November and into the holiday season, although there will likely be periods of recovery. It will ultimately persevere. This outcome is also supported by the analog composite, which in hindsight accurately predicted one of the warmest months of October on record throughout the northeast. Note that while I incorporate it into my conceptualization of how the season will evolve, its not the center piece of my outlook. I think it has value like any other tool does, but it was likely misused several years back, when it first came out and its value was probably overstated.

I'm sure, and I agree its tough today. Its a lot different than even 15 years ago.

I agree to an extent, but I really don't think he is a fan of winter.....you can tell. He doesn't have the sick smirk when a big one is on the way like Harv and some others do. You know a weenie when you see one and he doesn't pass the smell test. That said, I am sure he wouldn't be such a dork in person at a bar.

TBH, I would probably do the same thing if I were in his shoes...you just have to when you're in a highly visible position like that. Just sucks society is like that today.

I have zero faith in humanity, but every now and then people don't suck.

I was trying to explain to him on Twitter like a month or two ago that most weather fans were rooting for a hurricane strike in the northeast...he offered the most naïve, generically politically correct response as only he can...."well, they must not own anything". I was just shaking my head and said "I think you'd be surprised", and just left it at that. He didn't replay.

Yea, that sounds about right....there should be a mild stretch in November before we get an early jump on things.

I don't even begin to look at anything but climate models until just about December....unless its imminently clear that I need to.

There are a lot of idiots on Twitter.

Storm was largely a bust for Boston...it hugged too closely.

Its Indian Summer and Columbus Day AFAIC.

Man, I miss Harv already.....this next wave of guys like Fisher is so boring.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had a warm bias...the guy hates winter. I hope that isn't what our generation of mets is like in this cancel culture we are in.....makes we want to violently vomit.

Yea, its off to a good start, but lets see where we are at near the end of October.

I actually think it will be early summer.....maybe even June, which will allow it to induce and couple with the IOD very well. I expect it to be another neg IOD event, since this should be a modoki el nino.

Eastern region has surged recently, but 1.2 is pretty prone to large fluctuation.

I figured...I hate having to go heterogeneous with respect to databases. I was hoping I was missing something.

I was very relieved to see that because some of what I am looking at implies a relatively dry season. I think we will see some boring periods, which may coincide with the coldest stretches...this is why a blockbuster probably won't happen.

This la nina is just about a lock to be a hybrid event.....which means its likely to have mixed characteristics of east and west based la ninas....you can see on the model simulations, the residual anomalies decay slowest between about 120 and 150* longitude....hallmark of a basin-wide, hybrid deal. This is entirely consistent with my blog-musings earlier this summer (July) regarding the ongoing subsurface dynamics. State of Subsurface Implies Continuation of Basin Wide Event Currently la nina remains in a basin wide state, with the strongest anomalies focused west-central region of 3.4. Back in June, la nina appeared rather stagnant given that the subsurface cold pool was rather meager, save for the extreme eastern region of 1.2. This is important because the Walker Cycle dictates that line nina is fueled up the upwelling of cooler subsurface water to the surface by easterly trade winds. Note that throughout July and August, region 4 and the western half of region 3.4 to approximately 140 degrees longitude have been engulfed by easterly trade winds (denoted by blue in the graphic below), which is forecast to continue through the duration of August. This is important because simultaneously the subsurface cold pool has been intensifying and tracking westward, thorough most or region 3.4. Thus the most likely area for continued cooling over the next one to two weeks is the central portion of 3.4, at the nexus of the subsurface cold pool and easterly trades. Further to the east, across regions 3 and 1.2, the easterly trades have yet to penetrate, thus there is no mechanism to upwell the cooler subsurface. And across the western flank, within region 4, there exists subsurface warmth. However, the surfacing of positive anomalies is not imminent given the considerable depth at which they are present beneath region 3.4. Thus expectation for the foreseeable future is that this event will continue to remain basin-wide with a central focus on region 3.4. This maintenance of a basin-wide appeal with a central focus is supported by most guidance at present: NCEP: EURO: CMC:

Euro implies a more dominant N Steam relative to that season, more typical of la nina

Try it with the ENSO region SSTs.....it defaults to 1991-2020 using NCEP/NCAR 1

@weatherwizHave you been able to successfully use the 1941-1970 climo base period? When I try to use it, I get a 1991-2020 default. 1951-2010 and 1981-2010 work out.

Cosgrove, without explicitly mentioning the year (I did it for him in a half-joking way, and he laughed) has been basically hedging 1995. I mean, his passages have been a clinic in how to tell me you are thinking 1995 without telling me that you're thinking 1995-

First time it has dropped in like 5 months...about time if it is indeed going to make moderate. Yea, for all of the bickering and back and forth we have done, we have always agreed that it should peak as moderate....you just hedge a bitter higher end moderate than I.