40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Well, 1995-1996 was a la nina, 2009-2010 was a strong el nino.....
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I think the interaction with Cuba was paradoxically bad news for FL because while weakening the system in the short term, it effectively expands the wind field like an EWRC would have and we are now less likely to see the max sustained winds lowered due to an actual EWRC. Just my two cents.....someone on the west coast of FL is in trouble.
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I vaguely remember that....numerous trees down in Wilmington. I home in my aunt's neighborhood that a tree go right through the roof.
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Same page...my original thought on Friday was SW FL, and I may have overcorrected a bit yesterday to just N of TB.
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Exactly.
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No, I mean...its fair game to discuss and certainly relevant. I just have zero interest in what this does beyond FL....conditions don't look favorable for regeneration, and I'm not in the habit of tracking moist carcasses. Its going to bring rain to the se, I'm sure....WHOOP DE DOO. lol
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I haven't really even considered it because I'm not really interested in that part of it. It was never an option up here, aside from remnant rains.
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Yea, my only pause in a less than MH LF was it gaining too much latitude, but that is by the boards.
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Get that PD 1 looking monstrosity out of the way now.
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That was contingent on a further north track. The more southern LF changes things because it doesn't encounter the hostile conditions prior to LF.
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Wow....that is crazy. Its like a giant swimming pool. I can't believe that its that shallow...
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High solar flux isn't always a death knell for winter...2013-2014 was high solar. There are just so many factors.....
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Yea, this is what I was referring to when I suggested that the eruption could lead to a warmer SH strat this winter.
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The line are to delineate between more and less preferred regions for landfall, and the arrow adds emphasis.
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https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html
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Here is my best guess as of now.....incredibly tough call and low confidence. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html
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An early ERC could help explain some of the structural issues....
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Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in short term trends yet....but the dry air entrainment this far south maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north.
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Isn't it ironic that a weaker initial system and longer term track to the east is "bad" for once....
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I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4....
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Yea, nobody knows, really.
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If there were ever a season to pull that off....
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Probably why we are still waiting for the EW to close off....its slowed things down some.
