40/70 Benchmark

1966-1967 actually featured well above average snows in my neck of the woods, but its negated by the very paltry 1980-1981 season. 2003-2004 was warm neutral, so 2004-2005 was not technically a double dip el nino....FWIW.

Right, but as we saw last season, these are just probabilities and there are not guarantees.

Yes. 2000-2001 was more impressive for N ORH county...the pack was higher water content than 2014-2015, too.

Nor do I...was just saying that that is what will determine the ultimate tenor of the winter.

He had a death in the family last week, so that maybe why he's been more scare around here.

It was sprinkling outside in my area at like 1230am.

Marine influence on that SW flow must have rescued you....been well over 90 for 6 consecutive days here.

Bleh. Hope for a furnace over AK

This is where the upside lays this year...agree. The northeast can still do very well with this combo, as evidenced by the 2013-2015 stretch. PNA would determine whether its a taint-fest like 2018-2019, or its more of a snowier period, like 2013-2015.

Man, to be still 80 IMBY, which radiates fairly proficiently, past midnight is impressive. 85 KLWM at 1230am.

Yea, just wait and see. I heard the same crap last season and it ended up right where I thought it would...not that I'm perfect, but the consensus tends to get carried away with ENSO for a stretch.

99 should do it IMBY.

96

Already up to 93 here at ground zero.

La nina will be weak for winter, regardless of whether or not a brief moderate peak is achieved this fall. Yea, neg IOD is linked to la nina, but it's also linked to modoki el nino, which we are likely to see next year.

My theory why they did not link with the IOD, base upon this article, is that the 1995 la nina did not really get going until the fall and the 2000 event was a triple dip deal....and as cited above, the ENSO event needs to DEVELOP early in the summer in order to be most likely to induce an IOD respose, NOT be a one that his persisted all year. So, once again, snowman was right and this la nina likely is not coupled with the IOD. We could have some deviation from typical la nina climo this year.

It also makes sense that some of the la nina's that were kind of irregular from traditional la nina climo, such as 1995-1996 with the hyper active STJ and 2000-2001 with the huge ending, did not induce a concomitant IOD response, thus why the MJO likely strayed from traditional la nina favored phases.

"One may note that the El Niño in mode 2 evolves from the peak phase of La Niña and the Indian Ocean experiences a decaying process of basinwide cooling". Doesn't seem to be a coincidence that we usually have a modoki following a prolonged stretch of la nina.

Actually, you are right....the IOD-ENSO link doesn't apply for year long la nina events...only ones that have their initial onset during the spring.

The first mode (mode 1) of the Indo-Pacific SST covariation, shown in Fig. 1, explains 47% of the total variance. Also drawn in Fig. 1 are the regressed 850-hPa wind anomalies onto the principal component (PC) time series. This mode shows a developing phase of ENSO starting from boreal spring (Fig. 1a) and peaking in winter. SST anomalies first appear near the South American coast (Figs. 1a–c) before extending westward over the central-eastern Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of the IOD pattern begin to form in early summer. Then, the IOD gradually develops with the developing ENSO and reaches its peak in boreal fall (Figs. 1g,h) and finally decays after October (Figs. 1i,j). This is a typical pattern of ENSO–IOD coevolution (Saji et al. 1999). El Niño excites an atmospheric teleconnection over the Indian Ocean and causes easterly wind anomalies conducive to the IOD during boreal summer and fall (Klein et al. 1999; Alexander et al. 2002). View Full Size Fig. 1. (a)–(j) First mode of the rotated S-EOF for tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies (shading) and 850-hPa winds (vectors) regressed onto PC-1, (k) PC-1. Citation: Journal of Climate 30, 6; 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0426.1 From what I am reading, there is nothing to suggest that this particular episode of negative IOD developed independent of la nina....it seems pretty standard for a given IOD episode to develop during the early portion of the summer and grow in tandem with ENSO. The article goes onto state that IOD is usually tied to early onset ENSO events, and not later onset events. I would have to consider this one the former, since its a multi year event...the implication being that la nina likely provided the impetus for this particular round of -IOD.

Yea, kind of tough to hang your hat on, but...

Yea, it probably won't be as hot at this summer apex flex has been, but above normal, nometheless.

2000-2001 is pretty deceiving because while it was not particularly snowy along the northeast coast, just inland it was an absolutely insane season...talking 4-5' March depths in the Monadnocks of SW NH. Caveat being I don't think the ACE will end up as high as it did that year...