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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is consistent with the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index) forecast from Jamstec, which has the el nino steadily translating westward as we approach the cold season. A slightly weaker version of 2015-2016 seems a decent bet.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its fair to wonder whether a peak ONI of near 2 would be a deal breaker given that we have been seeing modest el nino events fail to couple. I'll have a blog coming up on the Relative ONI this summer.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder if its an early peak to hurricane season in the atl basin.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stay safe.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    You've set snowman off for days lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    #triggered
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 1981 had a very large event in eastern NE...March 1984, as well. January 1987 was a huge month.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even during that stretch, we had some years like 1986-1987 and 1981-1982....even 1982-1983 was decent. Bottom line is I have had five consecutive shitty seasons, which is unprecedented.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The strong el nino/high solar years are pretty split....1940, 1957 and 2002 were good, but 1972, 1982 and 1991, not so much.....looks like there were only two with a notable dearth of big east coast storms....1972 and 1991.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is largely why it looks like that IMO...you can see that el nino has already shifted a good bit west by November.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its been frighteningly consistent.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It honestly reminds me the most of 2010.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS looks like a torch....NMME looks more like the CANSIPS.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone notice what a consistent pants tent the CanSIPS has been for winter?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even if the NAO were just as strong, while not an ideal pattern for us and especially me, I am confident some of those systems would evolve slightly differently and that would have major sensible implications.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was literally the most frustrating winter of my life, but I can appreciate the potential that a similar pattern would hold.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take my chances with a replica of the 2009-2010 winter pattern.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This summer has been great, so far...no complaints. I'm sure I'll pay with non-stop swamp in August.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take that all summer long.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can, and we did, earlier this month.
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