40/70 Benchmark

The day of tropical reckoning for this region is coming soon.

Thank you...exactly.

Exactly this...which is why its so frustrating. Anyway, I feel like this season could be kind of meh again before the tide turns.

I guess I thought Scott was more like me in that he prioritizes the big fish....I would have expected an appreciation for 4 months of currier and ives from Kevin.

You should; that's a porking.

Its not about a failure to except climate change, its about one area of the region being boned and one not....though I'm sure you will find a way to attribute that to the Hadley Cell encroachment.

Yep.

I honestly would have loved to catch a 20 mile swath like that. Not to mentioned you witnessed one of the best blizzards of your life. I would prefer that over a 4 month stretch of climo snow and cold.

The QBO is but one small piece....its not the ultimate determinant. Lot of help the -QBO was last season. I feel like the PDO may remain a bit more negative than it was that year, but its not an awful analog for starters.....I haven't really delved in much yet, though.

Cry me a frigging river. You can have one from my string of shitty seasons that lasts four months.

The "scorched earth tour" means that he'd be on a rampage..IOW, very pissed off.

Well, if the warmth is ever going to win it will be from now through the next few weeks.....I would take that bet right along withy you.

You have positively got to be kidding me....you are one of the last few people in New England who should be on a scorched earth tour for anything concerning winter. You have above average snows every year.

Yea, my call is weak la nina peak to perhaps cold neutral for winter.

Agreed.

MJ MEI down to -1.9....lowest since ND 2010 and lowest on record for MJ dating back to 1948. Def. gives reason for pause on the el nino train of thought.

Clock is ticking on the window for extreme heat, but plenty of time for humidity....right into early October is fair game for that.

Sure, I would rather wall to wall fun and mayhem, too.....but if I have the option of 15" each month to average snowfall, or a 40" dump crowed by "lame", then I would take the latter. I prefer something memorable to fourth months of forgettable.

I don't disagree with the fun December vibe.

I'm sure we'll get a few weeks of humidity on the back half of summer....but we've had our fun. Its like, do you mind a shitty Feb-March if Dec and January pull 40" apiece?

The irony that once we begin to see some changes toward +PDO in the N PAC, then we finally get another period of RNA.

This summer has been lovely...no complaints. I hit 48 Saturday night.

I'll take the confidence one level further on this...its going to be 2023-2024 and it will be a moderate modoki....that is my educated hunch. Very good for this sub-forum. Considering that we have not had a bonafide el nino since the 2015-2016 meg-deal, the periodicity dictates that we should see a significant event. Nothing like 2015-2016, but at least moderately strong. You guys don't want it to remain weak because you get boned by the N steam, however, a moderately strong positive ENSO usually is accompanied by enough of a STJ presence to stack the snows further south into the mid atl. I think we will see that during winter 2023-2024.

I am with you on thinking either weak la nina of neutral....and nor would I rule out warm neutral. Weak la nina and warm neutral are the goal posts this year. I also think that the cool anomalies may be centered a bit more to the west than last season, which bodes well for a faster start to the season, and maybe a tamer mid portion of the winter.

Yea, we aren't getting that kind of drastic flip....also true that it was "only" a double dip la nina, but that is certainly not prohibitive of a similar type of modoki el nino for the 2023-2024 winter season. I don't expect it to remain a weak el nino because we haven't had a significant warm ENSO event since the 2015-2016 super el nino.