40/70 Benchmark

Check out my P&C for Sunday...lol Sunday A slight chance of showers between 11am and 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. About as hot as it ever gets around these parts....at least there looks to be a breeze.

I think the first half of August will average pretty toasty before we step down a bit...

How do you figure?

I'm actually getting the 7/11 split with a storm popping over KLWM, just to my south.

Just missed the T storms to my north, but clouded up and got windy, which dropped the temp from the high of 94.8 down to 81. Sun poking back out and temp up to 82.2

Intensity is a foregone conclusion...going to begin to hone in on structure during August. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/07/confidence-grows-for-weak-la-nina.html

Sometimes it is...the exact relationship between the two is a bit of a wild card.

Anyway, la nina will definitely have an impact...not saying it won't. I actually don't mind 1975-1976 as a potential analog.....

Independent of la nina? We had already been two plus years deep into la nina.... The early portion of winter, which would act to pin forcing over the west pacific...that buttresses the idea of a fast start.

I think the strongly negative IOD and MEI are a reflection of this past year, not necessarily of what will be several months down the line.

I am firmly in the cold-neutral to weak la nina camp for winter, but I would not rule out enough residual coolness lingering into early winter for a moderate "peak", though I don't think it would mean anything.

It will be a tricky season because we are backing out of the ENSO state, as opposed to the atmosphere riding the coat tails of a burgeoning event.....thus I do not feel as though the forcing will be commensurate with a lot of the global indicators that normally provide insight into the strength of ENSO.....kind of like seeing this big bulge of warmth in the GOA, but knowing that the pattern has already changed and the residual SST pattern is just a reflection of what was, not what will be.

It could....I mean, its moderate now. Depends on how quickly it can decay later this fall and into early winter. I think the strongly negative IOD belies the ultimate intensity of the la nina this cold season....be careful about interpreting the rather robust -IOD as an ensuing major la nina event. The IOD is also influenced by the timing of ENSO events, not just the strength....thus earlier onset la nina is correlated to more robust -IOD events. This of course is a well-established, multi year cold ENSO. Its later onset ENSO events that are less likely to manifest in changes to the IOD. I am finding some really interesting stuff concerning the IOD...I suspected that -IOD was correlated to el nino modoki due to the co occurrence of increased convection over the W PAC, and early returns are that I am right. Just another feather in the cap of an el nino modoki once this cold ENSO decays during the coming winter. Do you have a good link for IOD data?

Save the gas and order the jersey online.

I think you guys could get in on some of the good early season stretch.....may not be a disaster.

Colder December would also fit with the theme of a more central based cold ENSO relative to last year.

I topped off at 95.1 yesterday...probably a similar high today, but more humid. 87.3 off of a low of 70.5, at present.

That is precisely how I would run global warming if given the choice....structure it so that the obnoxious pipe bursting nights are fewer and farther between, while minimizing impact otherwise.

93.6, down from 94.1

Cool seeing ORH and BEV with the same degree of relief from the heat by different means.

Plenty of time....most sultry day is tomorrow, so check then.

I'm on four. Yea, its more feast or famine for sure, but like I said.....I'll take that. I don't mind sacrificing some currier and ives days if it means turning the 15" big dog, seasonal capstone from a 15" deal into a 25" mutant.

Personally, I like the change so far....less high end cold, which is obnoxious, and less days of pedestrian snow cover in exchange for a higher frequency of extreme events. I'll take that trade off....keep the 5 days of 3" snow cover and give me the 2'+ blitz.

I buy that for 1995-1996, but 2010-2011 was actually pretty N stream dominant.