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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The whole reason why tropical systems are usually a PIA is because the tropics are governed by predominately meager steering influences, and then timing the precise interaction with the westerlies is a whole other headache. Once the westerlies pick them up, its a mail-in forecast.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The GFS is a good example of why the ultimate landfall intensity is a real question.....the fact that it may interact significantly with that mid latitude trough prior to LF gives me pause. Its going to need to veer in fast and south to be intense.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Once they get picked up by a trough, its a pretty easy forecast.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally...no argument. But like I said, the warning system is no comparison today, obviously...which helps mitigate death.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    You look at that time stamp, and expect to see 320 from the GFS...but 18 on the EURO? Surreal...
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally, except they will be much more prepared.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/fledgling-caribbean-tropical-system.html First Call on Monday
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was out there in August.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have family in Hyannis.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....it can track up the coast and gives us a breezy deluge, or it can track near/off of the coast and be a good nor' easter, but it isn't going to hit dead on as a hurricane. Will some models threaten with that? Probably.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its crazy how many knowledgeable people just can't wrap their minds around the fact that a tropical system skirting SNE to the east is NBD in terms of wind. They see the pretty picture with the low near the cape and just lose their minds. This system as no chance to do what people are hoping it does.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    As a bonafide hurricane? No.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I go out and check it...not hard
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.14" on the day...4.30" on the month. Definite improvement.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally. Those parabolic recurves are useless. This is not a NE storm.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The title is from March.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    La nina will be dying by the latter portion of winter. I don't really see the progress with the subsurface...nor worried about it. I think the ceiling is -1.2 SON ONI.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I remember us having this same conversation last month and frankly, I don't see that anything has changed. I expect a similar outcome.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Scooter creepin the neighborhood again?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't get away with that anymore...mine are too bad. I miss it. I wonder if @Great Snow 1717has a meme for this?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    He waits for Allison to look away, and quickly pulls the blanket up over his grape to "savor the flavor"...
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