40/70 Benchmark

Yes, they have increased, but not as drastically as the mins. Just taking the overall mean temp makes it appear worse than it is for that reason.

I may be wrong on this, but I feel like global warming would have more dire consequences faster if it were not so heavily weighted in nighttime mins. This is why I feel like sometimes there is a contingent of folks that overstate and catastrophize the impact. I understand that eventually it will matter more, but this is probably why our snowfall hasn't suffered to this point (well, everyone's except mine)....the fact that it radiates to 15 instead of 10 on a clear night isn't exactly a deal-breaker. However, the increased insolation that is not emitted does in fact result in less snow cover via a larger window of time for melting.

I think at this point I'll take my chances on Kev's '38 redux.

Yes, this I agree with....all I meant. I never debated lower snow cover days....if they had said lower snowfall, then that would be incorrect....at least to this point.

I understand that...I know they meant snow cover days, which is correct. What I said was that if a warmer gulf stream is leading to warmer summers, then its due to warmer night time mins.

Yea, totally on board with this....but I am willing to bet that if you examined purely daytime max temps, the northeast is not leading the GW charge.

I do not buy that summers are getting warmer due to increased flow off of the ocean....if they are, then its almost entirely due to warmer nighttime lows. I could fathom that for winter...fine. At the end of the day, I feel as though much of our warming, at least here locally, is manifesting itself via milder nighttime lows. This article would make sense in that respect since it would be logical for more marine influence to contribute to a low of 14 at Logan during an arctic outbreak, as opposed to what would have been 12 40 years ago.

You need to either move, or find a new weather niche.

Yea, I remember hearing on the news that it would remain in the 70's, and then being surprised that it was already down to 70 a bit after midnight...got down to 66.0 IMBY....granted I radiate pretty well, but the night definitely didn't retain the heat as well as forecast even on a regional scale.

Possibly, but its not that easy to discern, as most of the global warming has manifested itself via warmer nighttime lows rather than daytime highs. Most, not all.... 1995-1996 certainly had greater positive snowfall anomalies in the mid atl, but I'm not sure 2010-2011 did....maybe in the northern mid atl...I know Philly did great, but a good portion of SNE approached 100".

I'd like to see the data supporting that....I find it hard to believe that the northeast US is warming faster than most of the rest of the globe.

Make sure the teeth are removed

You morbid SOB lol

Our area seems like its among the slowest.

Yea, I like a nice December, and then maybe a tougher stretch, hopefully after the holidays. The sea ice and SAI are factors.....the trouble is when people weigh them on an absolute scale...that is usually a fools errand within the context of seasonal forecasting.

I had about .56"RF yesterday and through early this AM.

Yes, and probably an at least somewhat tamer end of the season. Modified 2000-2001 works for me..we are due for more of an interior winter throughout the NE

Pull ups?

2000-2001 was a modoki, too....one of the better winters where I live right now, so like I said....more variability when its weaker.

While I do not think it will be a blockbuster season, I don't buy the rationale that this winter will automatically suck because of the la nina/+QBO couplet, assuming la nina remains weak.....at least not with respect to New England.

It isn't. I mentioned it, along with several other seasons, in one of my posts as support for a modoki el nino once this multi-season cold ENSO event concludes.

Note that last season, being a very heavily biased towards the east, featured a very mild December...and a colder mid season. This quoted material explains that relationship well. Of course, it didn't have the big ending that thought was possible due to (in my opinion) that very quick uptick in solar activity last season. But this is why I expect a better December this year and a more meager mid winter period relative to last winter.

I will update these to incorporate last season's la nina into the east-based composite, as I have yet to do so. The updated east-based la nina composite will be included in the 2022-2023 outlook.

Here is a bit of a refresher taken from last season's outlook that illustrates what I have alluded to above: There exist some notable differences between these two disparate types of la nina events. Here are a couple of schematics outlining these differences: Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based DJF 500mb for East-based years: DJF Temps Ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. Dec is typically the warmest month in the east-based years, which runs counter to typical cold ENSO climo. JFM 500mb east-based years JFM Temps Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years: DJF 500mb DJF Temps December is the coldest month for central-based Nina's. One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006. Likewise, there were some weak modoki events that were fairly cold across the eastern US, such as 2000-20001. This is further proof that there does indeed exist a structural mechanism beyond strength that dictates the overall character of la nina events and one of the focal points of this writing is to elucidate that point. There are some "hybrid" events that share both east-based and modoki traits. You can have a Nina that is a mix of east-based versus central-based, or "basin-wide", such as both this season and last.