40/70 Benchmark

If you considered ENSO intensity in a vacuum, I absolutely agree. Hopefully in this day and age no one is doing that.

Another analog that I really like is 1956-1957...that will be up there on my list.

That is my early favorite for winter '23-'24......caveat for raindance, not at all a forecast at this point, so don't grade it. Back to this year, there is one year that I really like that is an absolutely exceptional match in terms of summer precip, okay for summer temps, and great match in terms of ACE and solar. Main flaws of this year: - While decent, the summer temp match is not great - QBO is off, as its easterly...but not a huge deal. - While it is another basin wide la nina, its focused a bit further to the east...like 2010-2011, so couple all of that with climate change, and it would be a modified version. Anyway, as we all know, analogs are a tool and never meant to imply a replica season. But this goes along with the theme for a big December and fast start.

That year has some strengths, but there is another one that I like even better....much better temp/precip match to this past summer, and also a better fit in terms of ACE value.

Totally see that....the next winter I see as very similar to 2002-2003, both in terms of intensity and structure. As Raindance so eloquently pointed out, at the inception of this thread I speculated that it would be this coming season, but as it turns out it will be the next one. That became clear once I picked back up tracking ENSO early in the summer.

Yes, been saying I'll decide once and for all whether to really follow it or not this weekend.

1) It must remain weak enough to avoid recurving, while still maintaining its overall integrity, a task which is made a bit taller by the fact that a weaker, more westward tracking system is more likely to interact with Hispaniola. 2) The way I see this is that there is a pretty narrow path to major US impacts considering that a it must thread the need in limiting interaction with the Greater Antilles, while also avoiding re-curvature. I feel like the ceiling for US impact is a TS, with perhaps a slight risk of a minimal cane....which fits my definition of ignorable. I know others may disagree.

Still seems like a largely ignorable tropical entity IMO.

The irony is that he claimed that we spend so much time on a weather forum because we are socially inept and fear direct social contact, when the reality is that we spend so much time here because we have all met in person and developed friendships over the years as a result of our shared passion for the weather. Mutual interests are among the most powerful vehicles for social cohesion, which is a concept that is apparently every bit as foreign to him as a warm DM Albuquerque outlook.

That was the first "biggie" that I remember vividly.

That is one of the most underrated winters..one of my favorites. 93-94 gets all of the accolades because it was better for the densely populated CJ zone, but 92-93 had two immense signature events. And its not an IMBY thing because I wasn't anywhere close to a jack in either one.

I think it will go N of Hispaniola.

The el nino thing was a wild first guess from back in March, dude...not a forecast. Look at the title of the thread....."Winter Conjecture". That is all that opening sentiment was. I check out from weather every spring, so it was literally a wild guess before detaching from weather. I am about as transparent as can be with respect to my results...anyone here would tell you that. Its unfortunate that someone as talented as you seems to have such egregious internal demons/strife ....really no need to call me an idiot and attack me like that. I hope whatever perceived shortcomings you have in life are ultimately sorted out, so you can stop using your passion for weather to overcompensate for all of your insecurities and cease to project that venom onto others. Good luck with that-

Man, it's a bloodbath when he gets going on one of his climate change tangents, though....goes into vivid detail like only he can about how there won't be any more hurricanes, it won't snow south of Mooseanus, ME, and everyone's crotch will melt off. Makes we wanna tie a firm knot some place really high and just "hang out"...

My mentality is to take things a bit further each successive season; building off of the conceptual framework and supporting data (composites) from prior works. I've done that over the past several years if you scrolle through the outlooks.

It goes on the show how the placement of the SST anomalies within the ENSO region and the resultant forcing schemes at least partially explains the vastly different outcomes in terms of sensible weather.

No recollection of that.

Man, you have a way of authoring posts that just drain the soul of a weather weenie, at least for those courageous enough to endure the entire length of them.

I was just thinking that RE the flip....I remember you commenting on the EURO death ridge. The way things are going, I'll get the heat ridge, but the timing will be such that the tropics still whiff lol

Yea, will probably end up OTS.

Well, we have the Carol's, Donna's, Gloria's and Bob's sprinkled in that at a greater rate of return, which are destructive enough in their own right. We are overdue for one of those.

Oh, I misread his question.

Yea, I said the same thing...but who knows regarding track, at that range.

And as far as weenies go....

CMC ends up in the GOM, and ICON near the Bahamas...NAVGEM looks like it may recurve east of Bahamas..