40/70 Benchmark

Well, there is a modoki spectrum.....while its probably going to be more west-based (modoki) than last season's, that isn't saying very much because last year was heavily biased to the east. Furthermore, even it if is decidedly towards the modoki end of the spectrum, the impending la nina will not be as prominent as the one last season, so it isn't necessarily "game over" for the northeast this winter. There is more variability with respect to meager ENSO events. For instance, the 2005-2006 la nina was heavily east based, but it was very weak...thus the winter was still mild. The el nino of 1976-1977, which was accompanied by that earth-shattering cold winter season, was actually a heavily eastward leaning el nino....but again, it was very meager.

Yea, its been apparent for a while this tropical season was over forecast by the consensus...Cosgrove has been all over that dating back to last spring.

I don't think they will hear it all the way from Africa.

I think it viable to debate what percentage of GW is anthropogenic, but there is no question that humans are partially to blame.

This quote has potential lol

Well, that's obvious to me....if someone doesn't understand that, then its their problem.

Over the course of the past week, we have definitely entered that climo apex when the dews and heat always win in the end....you can feel it. Its just a matter of how miserable it will get.

Which models are you viewing? IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July 2022 Quick Look (columbia.edu)

You know we need the cold season when scooter starts rapping about droughts.

Yay, I've finally jackpotted.

Yea, just cements the notion that we aren't having an el nino this winter. Will the Pac be as hostile as it was last season? No.

I feel like that is implicit today....everyone understands that.

I probably had a similar amount to you.

Looks like there was some rain last night...it was wet. Won't check the gage until tonight, though.

Fixed. I suspect Kev may have left "dystopian" out of that search, though lol

For a few years, such as we are currently seeing...but interminably? No, because the nature of the processes, such as the Walker cycle, etc, that comprise ENSO are ultimately self-destructive.

Looks like its essentially the west PAC cousin of ENSO....largely modulated by Walker Cycle, as well? May be interesting to see if IOD phase is correlated to whether a given ENSO event is modoki or canonical....I will look into that this season.

I need to look into the IOD...its admittedly a hole in my knowledge base. I may research and add a write up about it this season, since its a repeat la nina and I don't have much work to do surrounding ENSO.

ENSO is always a good starting point. I agree, early portion looks better and mid winter worse relative to last season. One point, though....2000-2001 wasn't front loaded, at least up here....it was pretty relentless activity, with a relative burst early and late. March was actually the most furious stretch.

Well, it kinda is.....I hate the strong sun and the heat, so we take....theoretically speaking. Not banking on the 384 hour GFS, of course

What a pants tent run.

Sorry for the OT...last bit on this, but my day job is more case management, though I do have two clients on the side that I do therapy with each twice weekly...and it is the side gig where the med prescription element would be more relevant for me specifically....as at work, my role is largely relegated to touching base with the psychiatrist/prescriber to recommend a prescription.

Yes, I work directly with clients. No, I can not directly prescribe meds, but can help to facilitate the process....however, there is a push in Mass to empower LICSWs to be able to prescribe meds with some extra training.

Well, as a state LICSW, there isn't really an option for remote work.