40/70 Benchmark

VD Day 2007 was mine

Something off with the Euro. It's either too far south with the front, or too slow to bleed the arctic cold in behind it.

I'm glad I hedge conservatively with my first map last night....I knew this one would bump back north. Consistent with the binary theme of either south or north of me.

You can keep the ice

It's okay. I've learned to expect it...not even complaining. Maybe next year-

We'll see what happens, but I've never been crazy about this one in terms of snow

Euro looks just like GFS

Yea, not unless he moved to Methuen

That could be glaze....

Damn, you need a rabies shot tonight lol

Sweet dreams, I'm sure...

Oh, well that clears it all up.....at least its no longer weird...phew.

I'm in tears...

Will is going to get back into this thread and immediately just relinquish his mod duties

This place is on fire tonight lol

I was going to say, once I heard you say s stream was amped AND cold pressed more, I expected a good run.

Hope you are right. Just a preliminary map

I figured it would be Luke to go there.

First Call https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/02/first-call-for-messy-mix-friday.html

February 2022 Outlook February Analogs: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018, 2012, 1965, 1975, 1972, 2008, 2011,1985 The month should average anywhere from near normal to 2 degrees above average. Warmest near the east coast and the mid atlantic, coldest north and well inland. But again, the risk is for a much warmer outcome. The forecast for a significant polar vortex disruption between approximately January 21 and February 14 currently appears unlikely to materialize, as the vortex is now expected to remain rather stout into early February. However, it is possible that, too may ultimately prove more delayed than denied, this it will need to be monitored. Otherwise, the implication of the timing discrepancy with respect to the Pacific means that the month is likely to begin rather wintery, featuring a gradient like distribution of snowfall via overrunning and SWFE, due in large part to PNA/-EPO couple combined with a dearth of Arctic blocking. This pattern is now expected to break down and give way to an active pacific jet around mid month, which will mean a much milder period characterized by zonal flow. This progression is supported by the anticipated emergence of the MJO into phase 3 during the early portion of the month, as indicated by the consensus of guidance: Note the southeast ridge emerging in the mean: Subsequent propagation to phase 4 entails lowering heights it the vicinity of Alaska, which induces a mild, zonal flow: This is followed by potential movement into phase 5 and a continuation of the mild pattern in the latter portion of the month. This is at least somewhat consistent with current long term guidance: .

My timing was off with respect to the Pacific, as I had the PNA in December instead of January...so while my monthlies are pretty bad, I have been pretty good in the aggregate season to date. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/02/january-review-look-to-wintery-onset-to.html

Agree

@dryslot I emailed them about that issue with ratios...will report back response.

Hopefully I can score by being in that narrow area that got appreciable snowfall in the blizzard and gets it in this next one.