40/70 Benchmark

We need to develop the RPI....figure out a domain space for this Rectal Plague Index and use it as a measure of the probability of Tip's loved one(s) finding him swinging in his closet.

Fall is the most viable period for the tropics and by then I am immersed in winter outlook attributed data.

I get the hatred of spring, but for me the intense sun and sweltering heat is worse than 50 and drizzle. Summer is definitely the most boring weather, too....spring has a mix of the occasional snow threat, faux severe deals, and backdoor tracking, etc.....summer is too early for the tropics around here and is just tracking 62 vs 71 degree dews. along with the faux severe ghosts....just brutal.

For me its: WINTER FALL Spring Summer

You like summer most?

I have a pretty good amount of down time at work if there are no crises, which is the norm.

I'll post all of my findings as a primer to the outlook this fall...it expounds and expands upon some prior writings.

Since my fantasy team blows worse than a Methuen winter this year, I'm using the this meteorological malaise to really delve into the IOD and how it interacts with ENSO in order to gain a better understanding of the tropical Pacific. Its mind numbing at first, but makes sense after a while.

"I'm sure 15 years ago, my delicious Hadley Bar never would have melted onto my loins before I could indulge and savor the flavor".

At least its raining draft picks for you in AmericanMoneyball

I managed not a drop on Monday.

I'm still waiting for the post in which you emphatically link Halloween candy to CC.

Wonderful...haven't seen any yet.

Everyone stay safe and keep an eye to the sky out of an abundance of caution.

Yea, sensible weatherwise it has been nice...just can't wait to get through the first half of August....fewer humid days, and get the back to school and Halloween materials out in stores.

Yea, but at least winter has the allure of potential...you know your fate from April through Novie.

Well, summer is boring at baseline, so its not a shock.....but this warm season has been especially mundane. There is a reason why I check out in March.

This has to be the most boring past five months of weather locally that I can recall throughout my entire life. We can't even muster up tropical delusions of grandeur because there hasn't been a bonafide tropical cyclone.

I'm sure it will be hot...maybe even worse than hell week, last week...but that 108 degree crap is model fiction.

You sound like me by the end of January

I def. wouldn't expect a repeat of Snowmageddon any time soon, but a similar type of ENSO event may be in the offing.

Why? I thinks even bolder to favor an active season, at this point...

I think it will. I don't think the polar domain will be particularly conducive this season, however, I do expect a favorable Pacific early on in the season...if we can get some NAO early on, then December could be very good.

Do you feel that there are some physical processes at play with respect to the linkage between the prior warm season's ACE and the overall tenor the following winter? I suspect that there are, but its difficult to postulate exactly what said phenomena are. My crude guess has to do with the ocean currents rolling forward into a certain set of ocean-atmosphere coupling(s) across the hemisphere.

We do not have a strong la nina...not sure where that is coming from. MEI is high, which means this particular cold ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere, but the ONI is NOT strong...its borderline weak- moderate at the moment. Yea, modoki la nina, as with el nino, is a different ballgame and applying stereotypical ENSO climo in that case is often a fool's errand due to disparate convective forcing schemes. Completely buy more of a modoki la nina this season, which likely means a more wintery December and milder mid winter season in the east. Beginning next spring into the early summer, I expect the strongest positive anomalies to shift west and be joined by some other positive anomalies trending southward from the N PAC, as the la nina decays, which will segue into a rather healthy modoki el nino next year...probably the most robust since 2009-2010, and 2002-2003 before that.