40/70 Benchmark

Depends on how you view analogs....I think December will be wintery, but I also view 1999-2000 as a viable analog. Anyone who feels as season needs to be a replica of what is to unfold doesn't understand how analogs work (not saying that is the case with you).

Yea, but the result was that the compression between the -NAO and record RNA sheared all of the storms to shit...that's why we couldn't even a SWFE up here last December.

I would say the ample cold source in Canada prevents the torch across the northern US. I think we could sustain a PNA....hell, we had a +PNA after December even last year.

@ORH_wxmanDJF looks as though the cold source would be locked and loaded. Looks to me like that would transition from very stormy (think nor'Easter) pattern in December with marginal cold(1996 like?) to more of a SWFE regime with plentiful cold mid season before ending with a whimper.

Exactly. I know we said that last year, but I will take my chances on a avoiding another record RNA.

That's not the point....the point is that 1999-2000 is really the only viable analog from that set.

It's not about saying what you did or didn't say...I'm just illustrating the point that there is a pattern to your posts. You would have never have tweeted something like that because it doesn't meet your agenda. You are right; you will never explicitly say it, but you like to needle the shit out of winter fans. Lol

You can change the color scheme, as well:

Man, I really hate the new color scheme it uses.....so that uses the 1951-2010 period because it was subtracted, even though it still says 1991-2020 at the top?

So, this is actually the correct composite for the high solar/W QBO Dec composite...more of an ATL thumb ridge than an NAO per se....1999-2000 is the only decent ENSO match.

Its early, but not really...I'd probably lean towards a more active first half. South of our region may have more of a struggle.

1999-2000 is actually a pretty good ENSO match in terms of placement if the SST anomalies (basin wide with west lean), but this event will be weaker. That season sucked up here. But your point is exactly what I am getting at...on paper, there is no way that this season looks good for your area, but there is a path for it to be decent...perhaps even a bit wider of a path than there was that year.

Me neither.

Its funny how Tweets mentioning that every esoteric wind anomaly at varying levels of the tropical atmosphere over East-Butt Crack supports a strengthening la nina get posted, but the elephant in the room named ONI is seldom mentioned. Perhaps it doesn't want to play nice with the ENSO agenda? Interesting trend. 2022 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8

All joking aside, most of those years aren't good ENSO matches...2000 maybe passable. It was also west-leaning, but weaker...at least at this point. Perhaps not over the winter. The main take away as that certain circles of folks on the internet get too carried away with volcanic impacts.

Something tells me that this not one of the HM Tweets that @snowman19will be sharing....not enough +++++AO/NAO talk Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Replying to @JuliusSubovic @SimonLeeWx and 7 others West QBO / solar max condition in previous research was not a runaway +AO or weak planetary wave signal. In fact, it was found to have decent amplitude wave activity (Calvo Marsh 2011). In addition, there's no indication yet that the water vapor cooling will dominate all lats. 8:47 AM · Sep 6, 2022·Twitter for Android

About 3-4 good months of December up this way...interesting.

The Climate Prediction Center is. 17AUG2022 20.1-0.8 24.3-0.8 25.7-1.2 27.7-1.0 24AUG2022 20.3-0.5 24.5-0.4 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.8 31AUG2022 20.3-0.4 24.5-0.4 25.9-0.8 27.6-1.1 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Its basin wide with a westward lean. Also interesting to note that the robust la nina certain Twitter circles keep calling for is nowhere to be found.

...to the victor goes the spoils...

Pretty classic basin-wide season, save for maybe a colder mid season vs early.

Forget snowfall amounts, but the progression of the EURO seasonal reminds me a bit of 2010-2011 (also basin wide, but more biased east) in the sense that it tries to have a favorable early season NAO hand off to a more favorable PAC look mid season, before maybe ending on a quiet note.

JMF looks like it trends more gradient, as the we lose the NAO, but the Aleutian ridge also gets gets a bit more favorable. That to me implies the opposite issue from December, but perhaps kind of the same result. Ample cold source, but some messy tracks. JFM looks colder than OND in terms of anomalies.