40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Nah, I'd sign for that.
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Yikes...celebrity weenie cage matches...gtgs would be much better attended. Hell, I bet the Maine peeps would even make the journey for that.
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We ignored it.
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I know I trust the NAM most in these situations. -
I honestly don't care much....at this point, I'm not going to melt over missing out on 4".
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I thought you were talking about snow down to at least rt 2 and maybe the pike, yesterday .
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Well, I know when I was discussing typical SWFE north trends, I meant aloft in the mid levels.....I've always gotten why the surface can stay colder. Looks like this is a typical SWFE where it matters in terms of snowfall...the mid levels. Figured that.
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Euro pretty close with the big dog.
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Fine by me.
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The guy asking about 1/2" of ice in a modest overrunning ordeal dishing out buns...its raining pots and kettles.
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Yea, EPS actually was more ominous at 12z.
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I don't mean the whole period...just within that window. Obviously we can narrow it down now, but at 4 months lead, I just try to get it within two weeks.
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My first big storm window from Novie whiffed in January, like that whole portion of my outlook...but my second window is from 3/1 to 3/15
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Check out the EPS...I posted in the other thread.
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One a few days earlier...2001 few days later.
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What happens?
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Still leaves a lot on the table, too.
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Wasn't there a big ocean deal in March 1999 that backed up and hit the cape?
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This is why there were so many MJO phase 8 head-fakes, and I would have expected that. If the block somehow fails in March, this is why, but hopefully its weakened enough. One March storm analog to be mindful of from the analog composite is 1984....2001 was much weaker, but could be relevent consider this is weakening quickly.
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One change I will make next season is to incorporate in season ENSO checks...I do it obsessively all fall, and then just abandon it once I issue the outlook. I am going to keep checking it at least into January...beyond that, it doesn't matter as much due to lag. This la nina rapidly evolved into a modoki after having started east-based. Had I not been irresponsibly neglecting ENSO, I would have adjusted faster in season.
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EPS actually looks centered over the DM for 2/28. GEFS trended a bit better at 12z and GEPS worse.
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Yea, that is why I may need to adjust...I really missed that in my first eval. May need to reconsider on Tuesday. What you said about cold exertion offsetting advection really clarified what you mean...my reluctance is that is normally more applicable to the low levels. Maybe across the full profile here...we'll see.
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It really wasn't knock. When I am on the run and looking for an honest assessment, you are one of the posters I look to read for a "no shit" eval. But its not only in shit winters....you even doing in the lead up to impending blizzards. You remind me of messenger in that you are always looking for how the other shoe may drop via subtle trends.
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Hopeful....I'll make one final call on Tuesday.
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I'm just being sarcastic..but remaining unbiased and searching for means of failure are essentially synonyms.
