40/70 Benchmark

I know it looks like the IOD and ENSO are perfectly in sync and mutually re enforcing one another and I'm sure that they are to a degree, but what will be obvious when la nina folds like a cheap tent is that mature, stagnant ENSO events have a more difficult time initiating and coupling with the IOD than ones that develop during the early portion of the summer. This is part of why the dynamical guidance is less aggressive. Remember, ENSO at baseline is self destructive, and it will do so at least excuse imaginable....this particular event is on borrowed time as it is.

Like I said in the blog last month, statistical guidance is skewed by the fact that it's one of the most potent cool ENSO events on record in terms of the MJJ and JJA ONI, but dynamical guidance has a better handle on what is going on in the atmosphere...which is what is most important.

Oh, my bad...I meant the winter after this one will be el nino. This one will not...my mistake.

Opposite of last winter would be a neg NAO December....we had the one good shot of neg NAO in Dec, but the month averaged slightly positive.

Don't worry, someone will come in with a tweet from Eric Webb showing some random wind anomaly that supposedly supports the strongest la nina in the history of the universe. Writing is on the wall for a rapid demise after a border line weak/mod peak later this fall...been saying it since mid summer.

He said only if you watch

I'll get on it.

.91" IMBY as of 330pm.

I think considering how dry it has been, we def. want to start seeing organized systems impact the region.

Maybe a harbinger of winter with a dominant polar jet and diffuse s stream? Some models hint...

This is def. the winter pre-season...first OTA for old man winter. Finally an organized system.

The only people I know of that did not are Larry Cosgrove and @raindancewx. Both on my short list of must-read every fall.

Its always the b*tchiest that get the spoils, unless its me.

You down for another GTG later this fall?

Did DT predict a big cane season? I know he's been around...

Heavy, heavy confusion

South of the front its not cool, north of the front, its cool. Go figure.

62.2 IMBY....that's pretty cool for closing on midday in early September.

DBIST.....Seymour Stein was his name.....killing SW CT plant life was his game.

That sounds believable based on what it looked like in the Wilmington area driving own I 93.

Glad to see you, bro

You know its been a boring year when we fight over rain.

That area is due for some precip regression.

Same page....been saying the Pacific is going to look better this winter than a lot of people think. The surface of the tropical Pacific belies what is going on right now in the atmosphere. I think the eruption is also playing a role with respect to the dead tropics if you read some the research that raindance referenced.