40/70 Benchmark

East-based la nina events have always been more prone to poleward Aleutian ridging....I noted numerous examples spanning back decades in my work last fall. Again, not doubting the Hadley cell research, but cold ENSO episodes of this ilk have always strayed from the la nina baseline, historically speaking.

What is your average? 70-75"? Very doable...

I agree. This was the next sentence: The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather. Obviously the PV isn't going to play the crucial role that I thought it would, but I could still see a snap back to warmth later in the month.

What a sicko....I see the little sparkle in your eyes lol

John, what are your thoughts on the SSW failure? I suspect the sun activity uptick had an influence there. I was pretty confident we would see a SSW judging from my analogs, but clearly going to be a miss.

I actually did favor the Pacific becoming favorable again in early March, but like I said, the big SSW attributable blocking isn't materializing....from early last Novie: March 2022 Outlook March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011 The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically. Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement.

Yea, March 2014 was much worse...2015 was just frustratingly underwhelming for me....that record snowpack just slowly rotted out.

Yea, I remember Steve doing well....it was good across the southern half of SNE.

Yea, once in a lifetime mid season with a shitty December and March IMBY.

I had 9" with no events over 2". That month is the reason why 1995-1996 is still my #1.

In a 2014-2015 kind of way....for the wrong reason. I had SSW and NAO blocking....but sensible weather could be similar to that which I expected.

Been trying to convince him all season that March wasn't going to Morch.

Hopefully it produces....nothing worse than a cold, dry March. March 2006, 2014 and 2015 were some of the more brutal ones that I can recall.

Funny you say that...some of my early ideas have been for a potential modoki year, though I do not think that the sun is that quiet anymore. I was wondering about '02-'03.

Yes, 2017-2018 was also east-based....though this year doesn't look to have the blocky finish that that season did. It was one of my main analogs.

I have gotten like that at times....mother nature has her own way of handling that.

Thanks, Larry. @StruThiOis correct, though....this event was def. much more coupled with the atmosphere than last season's event, which I was mindful of if you read my outlook. Some real mixed results for me this season...I had December/January reversed from what actually transpired, as I had the PNA being in December...oops. I don't think I am far off in the aggregate, but struggled with timing. Snowfall forecast has largely worked out in the mid atl and near the coast of SNE, but I am looking pretty bad right now across interior NE. It looks good for the big finish that I expected, but not because of a SSW....more Pacific driven. If it works out, I will definitely be transparent about that, as always. I guess if you need to make up ground late in terms of snowfall, its good to not need it to the south and near the coast, which I do not for the most part.

My guess is that may be why we aren't going to be seeing the late season SSW and blocking that I figured we may with the cool east-based ENSO easterly QBO combo.

That is the type of pattern where I could make up some ground on the rest of SNE, but I'm sure Ginxy will find a way lol His spot always does.

4.6 at my place....colder than Monday night.

I could see my area reaching 65"+....tall task, but doable.

Yes, true. I am not trying to imply that there is any specific reason to doubt it....I have been big on that period going back to last fall, but the prudent course of action is to always be leery of amplified solutions at very extended lead times, as you know. All I meant.

Gotta watch to see if that extreme pattern gets modified over time....long way out.

Not really...its all relative. I got boned that year, too...just higher all around numbers. But given a choice between the two, yea, I'd take herpes over chlamydia.

Yea, lower ceiling with safer floor. At this point, even I am okay with opting for the more secure route lol