40/70 Benchmark

GFS

Probably the GFS suite trying to tell you the EURO is right (pending 12z)

GFS deforms from about Taunton back to 495.

GFS didn't beef up much back west, just upped the ante east.

The entire state needs the same adjustment, its irrelevant. Try to follow along....I know you didn't realize we were having a storm until yesterday.

Nice trend for Columbia, CT.

Sure-burger

I think it will tone down a bit, but not like the NAM.

Just looking at 12z NAM more closely...that is 12-18" from ORH county points east....6-12" WOR. Def. not that same type of storm at all....anywhere.

Shit, no more 30 burger? (Ducks and runs)

I think we are just obsessing over the trees in the midst of a historically expansive forest-

I mentioned in Wednesday's write-up that blizzard conditions east of about a ORH to ASH line, so makes sense to me

Has output drastically changed?

Yes...and I will.

Over the entire forecast lifecycle of this event, the most consistent piece of guidance has been the euro....sure, it has generally been congruent with the consensus trend, but with greater run-to run consistency, which is to say that ALL other guidance has been more malleable to these synoptic scale and even meso scale nuances. This means that the other guidance is m ore prone to wild fluctuations, which has been evinced by the behavior of the NAM, GEM, GFS, UK...EVERYTHING. That to me is indicative of guidance that is less equipped to proficiently resolve said nuances in order to yield a more viable solution, thus said output is less viable. The European model has continued to reflect toned down changes that are consistent with coherent signals reflected by the balance of model consensus, and I think we are seeing that one last time here at the 11th hour. We just saw the EURO tone down a slight amount in overall intensity, but not to the drastic degree that the NAM did. Sound familair? It should-

Totally agree...they forecast to not get burned, rather than be right, if that makes sense...

Didn't really cut back east of ORH.....certainly lowers ceiling, sure.

Absolutely...but there are certainly worse things that I could be triggered by.

Gotta trust the EURO here...you can't give yourself a popsicle headache over this shit when it clearly won't be resolved.

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGthanking that lol

Well, anyway....sweating a floor of 15" is a first world weenie problem to be sure.

I drive myself literally insane with these...after I post forecast, I'm just going to go home and inhale a package of gummies and break from wx for a bit

Exactly....who knows if the timing on that is correct.,,if it trends later, then its just congrats ME...if sooner, then CT

It seems to create a minima around CT (we know that must be wrong), before the energy jumps east and consolidates again... 1) Is that real.. 2) Is the timing correct..