40/70 Benchmark

Hopefully I get a good stretch. If not, I'm over it. Really no excuse do get obnoxious about it, either way. I get carried away sometimes.

Hopefully we can score a PD II type overrunning Goliath in this pattern.

40.8/39

Yea, I can tell you and I are a a lot alike from the baseball league lol

Yea, onto spring

Yea, it's insane how much time I spend starting in the fall...its easy to drive yourself nuts.

Yea, time for another break from this place

As frustrated as I got, I don't feel that way at all...laying low for a week or so does wonders for the frustration.

I usually clean up on SWFE/front enders, but I got porked on the one we had (MLK) BC of easterly flow.

Yea, coastal Jersey down to Delmarva has had a flukey good year....that same band goes right up through Steve over to Bret. Always fun seeing those little seasonal nuances, it's just more enjoyable when I'm not on the outside looking in lol

Not slammed, but a decent winter considering la nina. Hit all of my ranges down there, except for Philly....still time, though.

Yea, I said earlier...with that PAC look, not sure we would want an NAO block this far north. I mean, I guess we could still get porked by a stray lobe, but its tougher...

Yea, I agree. That is from my outlook back in November....the SSW/blocking didn't work out, but sensible result could still be good.

Not much to tell....just basically thinking out loud. But it is a year I will take a look depending how things shake out.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-coming-thaw-does-not-portend-end-of.html

YES. Agree.....I am actually glad that the blocking has not materialized, or we may have more of an issue up here.

This I agree with.....but I do not envision a PD 1, Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 deal, where it gets shunted south of us. Believe me, the way that this winter has gone for me, I would call for that at least excuse imaginable...but I just do not see that.

Doubt it.

I think the PV would have to drop really far to the south for that, which would be difficult given how potent it is right now....this is entirely Pacific driven. I don't see this as a suppression issue for SNE.

Lights and clothing off, siren on.

Looks like GEFS. #nudityinbrooklyn

Maybe 10m from sea level, so you're ripping at 1000' in the Tolland Alps.

I think its both....depends on which season, but generally speaking, east-based la nina events, like modoki el nino events, tend to be less pervasive forces in the atmosphere (though this one was very prominent early on)....so it makes sense that some of the disconnect from la nina climo may be a byproduct of that. But its also due to the fact that the forcing tends to make it farther to the east, closer to the dateline in east-based la nina events, like Scott was illustrating via VP image. Anyway, just as you say that everything is caused by an event in the atmosphere, I am of the opinion that there is rarely one "silver bullet" or "smoking gun", so to speak. In fact, its usually an agglomeration of factors working in concert and vying for proxy. The HC stuff totally makes sense to me...my aim wasn't to dispute that in any way....just want to be careful not to overattribute phenomena to it.

I think what we have this season is an eastward biased cool ENSO overlaid onto spiking solar, so we have the favorable PAC interludes, with tempered blocking due to the rising solar. The strat vortex has remain robust due to the sun IMO....so when the tropo vortex was somewhat dysregulated early on, it wasn't well coupled, but now that its recovered they have aligned.

East Pacific (EP) La Ninas East Pacific events are "characterized by the cooling SST anomaly center confined to the EP east of 150°W and relatively weak SST anomaly observed over the CP". They decay more quickly overall. These canonical la nina events are theorized to be relegated largely to the eastern Pacific due to the fact that they are a byproduct of the thermocline dynamics present in the Walker Cycle", which is explained in the ENSO & Tropical Background addendum. Here is a composite of cool ENSO events meeting this criteria: Note that the warmer anomalies near the dateline ensure that forcing remains over the central and western Pacific, similar to the weaker la nina composite. Sinking air that discourages convective forcing is focused well east of the dateline. Also evident is that the Aleutian ridge focuses more to the northwest relative to the modoki, cp event, which will be illustrated when that particular composite is reviewed. This often entails a protrusion of said ridge into the polar region at times, which likely contributes to the lower heights over the mid latitudes: Note again the similarities to the weak la nina H5 composite that was comprised in the intensity segment of the discussion. Obviously that is because all of these events were weak, however, there are some stronger basin wide events that were still decidedly biased east. Two such events there were referenced earlier are the strong la nina events of 1955-1956 and 2010-2011, which were both fairly cold across the eastern US and featured a great deal of blocking. Both of these have been designated as mixed-type "hybrid" events.