40/70 Benchmark

Yea, well I said "increasingly possible". I get that the climate is changing, but 70 years of data isn't worthless...

Yea, no argument there.

Yes. Global warming is manifesting most with respect to less extreme daily mins.

I put it less considering it hasn't happened in at least 70 years, but its increasingly possible...sure.

The Hadley Heroes also seem to forget that the majority of warming is occurring with respect to daily mins. The degree of warming during the solar max, while certainly both palpable and measurable, is not nearly as drastic.

I figured you would chime in with some rhetoric about cannibalistic Hadley Cells ruling the world, but like I said, I'll bet against 6 consecutive well below normal snowfall seasons IMBY and very likely win that bet. Its not entirely regional, either, which makes the global warming attribution perilous at best....the region as a whole has done better than my area.

Nah...I can hang. I figure maybe one more subpar season at most, before things begin to turn around. This season would be 5 consecutive stinkers, but I can't see 6.

Why would I go to NYS to chase rain? Its right IMBY.

Same deal as winter....most of the positive anomalies are at night. You should use your power for good instead of evil, and begin obsessing about how we're only about 8 weeks our from bum bums becoming a bit less toast when we get into the car.

Well, its COC AFAIC, and I'm a troll living in my own basement.

55.6

We want ass in summer, not winter. lol This is great....get a cool summer, active cane season followed by a decent winter, then its back to Africa in time to skip over next spring.

This summer isn't shaping up to be half bad.....I don't expect summer to be exciting in terms of sensible weather, just stay out of my damn way and it keep it comfortable, as I track the tropics and await the cold season.

Do core building exercises....back extensions and ab work.

Man, you young kids with back issues....exercise is good. Its preventative.

62.1

Music to my ears.

Down to 64.2 from a hi of 77.4 at 805am.

Actually a torrential T-Storm in Methuen....frequent thunder and lightning...

I heard it.

Man, I hope that is right....like 60 here, while the rest of SNE infiltrated by swampass.....finally a jackpot, here.

I haven't viewed a model since March, and won't until a viable tropical threat surfaces for the US this summer.

Four consecutive seasons now of greater than 10" below average IMBY....have to think that a good season is coming. I can't fathom more than one more stinker without a good year. I could possibly see a triple-dip cool ENSO being bleh next year, but 2023-2024 will def turn the worm if next season does not. We usually get a modoki el nino within a year or two of coming out of these triple decker la nina seasons.....57-58, 77-78, 86-87 and 2002-2003.

That is exactly what I am driving at....yea, PNA is stochastic and prone to shorter term wave breaking, however, we are seeing the incongruency even at a seasonal level. This is something I have noticed in doing seasonal outlooks....you can't just assume positive correlation in the Pacific. You need to dig in and unearth more esoteric relationships, such as the tendency for east-based la nina to exert a powerful RNA presence in December. I think this is why la nina events of that ilk tend to improve later in the season, more like an el nino, as opposed to canonical la nina events, which tend to be front loaded. It was right there in neon lights within my data last season, but I completely missed the forest through the trees, and forecast that RNA pulse in January, instead. Dumb, considering my primary ENSO analog was 2010-2011, which was a harbinger of that very behavior.