40/70 Benchmark

Pretty classic basin-wide season, save for maybe a colder mid season vs early.

Forget snowfall amounts, but the progression of the EURO seasonal reminds me a bit of 2010-2011 (also basin wide, but more biased east) in the sense that it tries to have a favorable early season NAO hand off to a more favorable PAC look mid season, before maybe ending on a quiet note.

JMF looks like it trends more gradient, as the we lose the NAO, but the Aleutian ridge also gets gets a bit more favorable. That to me implies the opposite issue from December, but perhaps kind of the same result. Ample cold source, but some messy tracks. JFM looks colder than OND in terms of anomalies.

Basin wide composite....like the Euro image above, also medium height Aleutian ridge and not so hostile polar domain.

The Euro looks to me like an Aleutian ridge consistent with a basin wide la nina...certainly not as poleward as last season, but not completely flat like some of the horrid cool ENSO seasons, either. This pattern implies to me that while there is really no mechanism to drive the cold s & e, which will create precip type issues (especially south and near the coast) early on in the season, the periods of NAO should create some favorable tracks.

Two weeks....two weeks remaining in the period....

Nah, believe me, I'm at peace with being an inferior snow spot to ORH.

Yea, precip type issues to be sure, but it shouldn't be boring.

This makes sense to me, as the Aleutian ridge is likely to be flatter than last season in the mean; however, I do not expect a record RNA in December this season....so there is likely to be more beneficiaries of an episode of early season Atlantic blocking. Favoring north, deep interior, and higher terrain, probably.....

That is why ORH is such a weenie spot for snow....near the southern end of ridge of higher terrain that jettisons down in a wedge between each respective coast, just removed enough to avoid thermal marine influence, why still availing of enhanced moisture influx....said influx is augmented even more when easterly flow from the ocean ascends up the spine of the ridge.

Read my mind.

You gotta look at the bigger picture, though....this has been going on up here for several years now. I give it 2 more seasons....if it happens this winter, and again next season, then I would be convinced that its climate change....not even joking.

Its crazy how the big QPF is always to my south now a days.....its either a large anomaly that is going to regress soon, or climate change. All kidding aside, I have honestly began to seriously ponder it. I know you are going to shrug it off by explaining the unpredictable nuances that dictate where convection fires, etc, but its keeps happening.

Considering ENSO intensity irrelevant in winter is a fool's errand to be sure, as is basing an entire outlook off of it. Its easy to see that it matters when you look at the composites, but obviously there are other factors at play. Its more an issue of strong vs weak, as it doesn't really matter if its 0.8 ONI vs 1.1....there are other factors that are usually more important in that case. Its also crucial to consider how the manner in which ENSO interacts with other factors around the globe is changing due to climate change.

I can't believe you're moving to CT...its like you've switched teams....time to don the LWSW uni.

I'm not one of the big winners...that's down to my SW (what else is new), but at least some appreciable rain....maybe have Stein lift a cheek off of my face so I can sneak in a few breaths.

Considering the year we have had, I get it....first notable episode of weather in several months, aside from heat and dews.

@It's Always SunnyI have 2010-2011 as basin wide, as well, but it has an east-tilt...similar to last year, though least year ended up flat out east-based in my book. My point is that if you are going to have the basin wide data set that expansive, its important to have some type of delineation... we agree on that. I consider 2011-2012 west based, and while you can technically call it basin wide, it's a different animal than 2010-2011.

1.17" event total as of midnight.

I know it looks like the IOD and ENSO are perfectly in sync and mutually re enforcing one another and I'm sure that they are to a degree, but what will be obvious when la nina folds like a cheap tent is that mature, stagnant ENSO events have a more difficult time initiating and coupling with the IOD than ones that develop during the early portion of the summer. This is part of why the dynamical guidance is less aggressive. Remember, ENSO at baseline is self destructive, and it will do so at least excuse imaginable....this particular event is on borrowed time as it is.

Like I said in the blog last month, statistical guidance is skewed by the fact that it's one of the most potent cool ENSO events on record in terms of the MJJ and JJA ONI, but dynamical guidance has a better handle on what is going on in the atmosphere...which is what is most important.

Oh, my bad...I meant the winter after this one will be el nino. This one will not...my mistake.

Opposite of last winter would be a neg NAO December....we had the one good shot of neg NAO in Dec, but the month averaged slightly positive.

Don't worry, someone will come in with a tweet from Eric Webb showing some random wind anomaly that supposedly supports the strongest la nina in the history of the universe. Writing is on the wall for a rapid demise after a border line weak/mod peak later this fall...been saying it since mid summer.