40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Try it with the ENSO region SSTs.....it defaults to 1991-2020 using NCEP/NCAR 1
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@weatherwizHave you been able to successfully use the 1941-1970 climo base period? When I try to use it, I get a 1991-2020 default. 1951-2010 and 1981-2010 work out.
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Cosgrove, without explicitly mentioning the year (I did it for him in a half-joking way, and he laughed) has been basically hedging 1995. I mean, his passages have been a clinic in how to tell me you are thinking 1995 without telling me that you're thinking 1995-
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First time it has dropped in like 5 months...about time if it is indeed going to make moderate. Yea, for all of the bickering and back and forth we have done, we have always agreed that it should peak as moderate....you just hedge a bitter higher end moderate than I.
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Part of me likes seeing some volatility in the seasonal composites because some of those early seasons maps don't necessarily scream "active" for our area, albeit cold. May not be the worst thing in the world to have the early cold break and take a swing at a phase change event.
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I feel like a have a pretty good idea in the aggregate....my sequencing may be off again, like last year. But I don't see any reason at all to think a ratter is en route, nor a blockbuster....although I think there is a greater shot at the latter.
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Well, 2001 and 2011 are two prime examples of cool ENSO seasons in which is did not happen....2005, as well, to a lesser extent. You can have the PAC jet wipe Canada clean of anomalous cold.
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Yea, there will probably be an ugly stretch, as there is in most seasons at our latitude.
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You also have to be careful because H5 can be deceiving....sometimes these orgasmic H5 looks don't end up great, and the more tepid looking charts really produce. As long as the source region is cold, then you can work with it.
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I was pretty close each of the past two la nina seasons......don't get me wrong, I have had some terrible outlooks, but those were el nino seasons. I've been pretty good with la nina.
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I think DJF is serviceable with a cold source region, but JFM is pretty rough.
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Yea, I have those...meant the single months from Wxbell. Thanks, though.
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Yea, hyperbole on my part to accentuate the point, but that is a pretty marginal -PNA IMO.
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December doesn't look that cold to me.....I think the coast/lower elevation could struggle some...
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Can anyone post January, Feb and March?
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A gradient look in November isn't very wintery for most highly populated areas.
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Agree. Some signs Novie could get mild...at least for a time.
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Not as amplified as Dec 2000 out west, sure, but that doesn't look like much of a -PNA to me. December 2000 was a monster PNA, so I agree in that respect, but its not December 2021, either. Its closer to 12/2000 than 12/2021.
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Man, this thread is always so depressing. Nothing like a paragraph or 8 from world renowned global economist Pickles to send you right into the bath tub with a toaster.
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That's been my my feeling all along. Maybe not too far from normal cold.....
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Looks just like December 2000:
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Yea, totally.
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