40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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This is why it's never wise to go with 2010-2011 totals in a la nina. The DM pattern may very well end up looking similar, but alot went right that year.
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I never, ever feared suppression this month...no brainer IMO.
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1955-1956 is one of my favorite analogs.
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Linning up the quotes....
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Yea, frankly ...I am just sitting out right now....given how high the frustration meter is, its going to fall on deaf ears, for the most part. There is a contingent that are just in full-tilt "obnoxiously defiant reverse psych mode" and are going to put up resistance to the mere notion that it will ever snow again. I just assume wait that out until they flip into extreme winter mode again once something becomes more imminent.
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That was totally the Buffalo version of the blizzard of '78. -
Yes, but a SSW can cause causation variation from normal la nina late season climo...hence "all bets off".
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I think the thaw sped up due to the body blow that the block took from that big low last week...probably would have lasted longer had that not been forced to amplify so far west and barrel into it.
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Thaw looks to end up being about a week earlier than I had thought back in early November, as it's the first week of of January instead of the second. Considering that most of us struck out on the first big pattern, I would rather the timeline speed up so as to salvage more peak climo. I had expected a mild February, but keep in mind that I did NOT anticipate a SSW....so if that works out, then all bets are off for Feb.
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You "muse to self alot "....I maybe taking new clients soon...
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I incorporate MEI into intensity ranking...
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Peak intensity of the event, but I tend to designate structure more by winter period..
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I think I had around normal....
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2017-2018 was fairly backloaded.
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Complete agreement. Been saying all fall...any pig of AK this season is transient and big time Pacifc improvements in January with a return if blocking. I titled my outlook "Mid Winter Mayhem" for a reason.
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+1/2" 2" on the season...
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About 1/3" here
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.23" rain yesterday, 1.95" today for an event total of 2.18". Currently a nice snow squall and all white... 26.2 off of a high of 54.3.
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Gotcha. I guess I didn't read that much into it....both are true. Its been a -PNA month, but in that specific instance, the PNA ridge was just too far west. Right.
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Well, in a stochastic sense, that snapshot is.....the origin isn't tropical forcing, but its still higher heights in the east that porked our storm chances. Chicken or egg....
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Yea, nuances like that determine whether it ends up snowing much or not. Def. part of the reason why the coast and back inland about 50mi or so saw even less snow than I had anticipated in December...and I wasn't gangbusters, either.
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So far, so good IMO...not perfect, but satisfactory with a week to go...
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Yea, I mean....I'm coming out of December with 1.5" given the pattern that just materialized....yhat is flat out sadistic, especially given how much the last several years have sucked here relative to other locales. Anyway, still very much in on this season....happy holidays.
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Is the rain pretty much done?
