40/70 Benchmark

Same...with two little ones, we had to.

Agree. It def. was not a 5 at LF, but I don't think Fort Myers Beach really cares-

Ginxy?

Yea, I mean...I had expected it cool down enough to peak as moderate ONI again, but its needs to start dropping in the next week or two. Would probably need to see the weekly get down to about -1.5c.

Yes, this is the one aspect of la nina that may play out this season. Seeing that play out in a lot of my concurrent analogs, too.

Yea, which I am fine with. No sign of it making it up in 3.4.

I have been saying this all fall....two things are vastly overstated with respect to the ensuing cold season: 1: La nina 2: -PNA Ben Knol had another Tweet with that dumb weight lifting emoji talking about how strong la nina is getting....I pointed out that he has been saying this ALL fall and back to late summer, yet the ONI is UP four consecutive months and counting. I pointed out how useless his comparisons are stating out how strong this current event is relative to climo....."only events stronger at this point are 1998 and 1999", blan, blah", when this event is nothing like those because it is and has been STAGNANT. Its residual, unlike those events, which were flourishing. Crickets. He reminds me of JB, just in the other direction....just looking for clicks, or something...

It has like 40* for my low, which NBD...I have already been in the 30s a few times.

Friday

21SEP2022 19.7-1.0 24.1-0.8 25.8-0.9 27.7-1.0 28SEP2022 19.0-1.7 23.9-1.0 25.8-0.8 27.6-1.1 The new weekly number is up a tick again.....this event actually has somewhat of an eastward lean now.

I assumed he must have meant for the month of October...

All I have heard about from OCMs is how the strongest cold front of the season is coming through on Friday, but it doesn't look impressive on the P&C....this past weekend was cooler.

Its been refreshing to actually have a real fall for once.

I don't know. Haven't looked. It wouldn't suprise me since September and October look to end up fairly cool.

Looks reasonable

Not you. The people on Twitter.

I have tried to clear the air with @raindancewx a few times, but to no avail. I don't care for all of the vitriol and it detracts from the quality of threads, as others have pointed out. The fact of the matter is that I feel is though he is probably a better forecaster than I am and is also most likely more intelligent, as well. The guy clearly has a background in the sciences and is very impressive. But that doesn't mean that he still couldn't learn something from me if he would stop attacking me and pry open his mind even just a crack. I will never claim to be the brightest guy in the room, and am not here to engage in pissing contests. I do the best that I can and try to add to the greater body of knowledge studying one of the greater passions of my life. End of story-

Twisted? The December forecast was wrong...it was pretty clear. I never stated otherwise.

Most outlooks will be out over the next month, anyway....mine will be out in about a month and Raindance in like a week.

Yea, I'm sorry about that. I allowed him to hijack the thread.

I not trying to validate my ego, he is. I'm merely trying to validate my integrity and establish fact from fiction. No surer sign of an ego in distress than the need to spend time seeking validation via the invalidation of others.

Hopefully it will actually appreciably strengthen at some point soon because otherwise my idea of moderate is in trouble.

We've been hearing this for months....how many tweets have you posted about how strong la nina was getting all summer long?? Yet, over yonder....in reality, the ONI has risen four consecutive months.

@snowman19's buddy Ben Noll isn't too convinced of modoki....

4.34" RF on the month...