40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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.76" and pouring as of midnight. 63.1
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Winter is saved for you.
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Yea, I would say the overall consensus there is neg EPO/PNA and slight negative NAO.
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I don't make long term tropical predictions...that was actually Cosgrove and Raindance.
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I think these were next up in @snowman19's queue of tweets to quote...lol
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Nah, I know that was the holy grail there.
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Yea, looks like probably a signal for some higher Greenland heights, but tough to infer too much from those MSLP maps.
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Oh, sorry. ACE is just Accumulated Cyclone Energy...its a measure of the energy emitted by tropical systems. Solar just refers to current position in the solar cycle...ie, we are currently ascending into solar cycle 25, so you want to consider other seasons that were also ascending. This will all be explained.
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Cosgrove is all in on a -AO/NAO.
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I remember the pattern during the fall of 2006 was awesome, then you came out with your infamous "warmest winter on record" thread, and sure enough, it went to shit.
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This is why la nina is usually front loaded.
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
40/70 Benchmark replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Great work and presentation, as always. I was a bit surprised to see your final map with +5+ on the east coast because it didn't appear that warm in the aggregate.....but you did say "locally". Good luck with it. -
99/100 times its nothing noteworthy where I am, so my MO is to not waste any time or energy on it and if I am surprised, then so be it.
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Hopefully we can tear the 'ole Naval Air Station down in South Weymouth.
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Hopefully it stays east of me. Maine can keep the power disruptions.
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I had about normal snow that season, though it was rather mild. It was a weaker la nina and more of a modoki.
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@512highWhat are you confused about?
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I have it as one of my more heavily weighted temp analogs.
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No. I have my analog composites, but I'll begin writing it up before month's end.
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The composite is a list of cold ENSO seasons that I have deemed as quality June through September national temp anomaly matches to this year...I have weighted a few more heavily than the others. You'll see shortly after Halloweenie, and if it doesn't make sense then, I'll answer all questions. I also have one for precip, which is more difficult IMHO, ACE and solar considerations.
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I have that as an analog...it was also a very dry summer on the NE.
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I think the climate division has distinct zones that they use to collect data.
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There should be plenty of questions before I issue the outlook. I just like to leave something to the imagination...not only that, it allows me to fine tune the composite if need be. FWIW, I made that composite early in September and haven't had to tweak it yet. Precip map I have.
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I wasn't planning on revealing until my outlook. You'll see in a few weeks.
