40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I feel like all of these additional data streams is like adding fentanyl to the weenies' crack.
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Runs that don't have snow for Brooklyn.
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I guess confidence intervals would be a better portrayal of how I feel about this season. I am supremely confident that it won't be a ratter, but much less confident that I won't bust low on snowfall.
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This is something that you can only completely appreciate with forecasting experience....took me several years of doing those outlooks to grasp it, but those 2018, and 2019 double-busts taught me a great deal. You especially have to be careful in la nina because its much more difficult to get an epic season as compared to el nino.
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We could replicate 2010-2011 10 more times, and maybe do as well in one of those simulations....don't forget that.
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Relatively conservative, and I think the correction vector is upwards with those, but keep in mind that I also expect some not so favorable tracks, too. At the end of the day, snowfall is an educated guess. But yes, maybe I get 90" instead of 65" if we get lucky.
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I think we will have a better Pacific in January, so its not all block dependent. It didn't reload in January 2011, but the Pacific took the handoff.
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Pending results, this season was one of the easier forecasts of the nine years that I have been doing this.
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DJ of my primary ENSO analog composite: DJ Primary QBO composite:
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2010 and 2020 were my two primary QBO analogs, and were each on my list of 5 primary ENSO analogs. 2020 is also a great match...its actually the only the only year that was a x3 inclusion on my primary analog composite.
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PD II and 12/5/2003 come to mind....
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There should be a reload of that block, which will provide another window beyond the first week of January.
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2010 and 2020 were just about identical to this season at both the 30 and 50mb level. January 2021 was also very blocky, but it was more of a N Atl thumb ridge than a true Greenland block, which is easier to get porked with.
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Not only was 2010-2011 one of the best ENSO analogs, but it was a dead-ringer for QBO.
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2001-2002 was an utter abortion. You are thinking of 2002-2003.
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My January forecast composite:
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Right, which isn't a problem when the baseline tropical forcing is already favorable.
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I buy that, especially in January....maybe rushing it.
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I think it would struggle to impart much deconstructive interference in the milder phases right now, but I would rather play it safe in keep it dormant after skirting into 8, which is what "looks" to happen. This colder, stormier flip is DEEPLY rooted in the tropics...its not some hail-mary wave break from a recurving typhoon.
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7 is fine my for my area, but it gets dicey south of here. Frankly, I am okay with the MJO taking a nice, long nap given the where the background forcing is headed with la nina right now.
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When you have 5 bullets per day, may as well shoot them on preferred weather lol
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I would hedge higher because crazy shit is going to go down with climate change.
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Funny how @snowman19hasn't been quoting as many of his tweets of late...he'll be back for the thaw in January lol
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I'd say the odds of NYC pulling a 100" season in your lifetime are about 30%.
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December is def the time of year that I am most receptive to minor events...I am with Kev on that. Getting wintery set ups to coincide with the solar nadir and the holiday season is special.
