40/70 Benchmark

That's what I said on FB....people mocking me, since its going to be rain on the east coast, but a system of this magnitude will have a ripple effect.

Good.

The Feb blizzard was only 984mb at max depth...but like you said, with an obscenely high ambient pressure.

I remember I initially had reservations last week bc of the position of the ULL in se Canada on the ensemble means, but I allowed myself to by into some of the pretty OP head fakes.

Major, Long Duration Winter Storm Friday-Saturday Generally Forecast Well The forecast for the major winter storm at the conclusion of this past week and into the weekend was well forecast overall Below are reported snowfall totals from across the region. This was a very difficult forecast because the airmass was very marginal, and this it was highly elevation dependent, which is a point that was conveyed in the forecast. Note that while the forecast across northwestern half of the forecast verified very well, the southeastern edge of the snowfall, across the southern Worcester hills and the hills of north eastern Connecticut was overdone. The reason being that the airmass was just so marginal that iy was very difficult to discern what exactly would transpire. Not only does climatology dictate that more often than not the higher terrain of this area will see appreciable snowfall, but much of the forecast did, as well. However, clearly did not end up being the case in this area, as the 3-6" forecast verified as 1-3". Another area of difficulty was the lowest portion of the Connecticut river valley in Massachusetts, in was some areas such as Greenfield were forecast to receive 3-6" of snowfall and actually received under an inch. The rest of the forecast verified well, with areas such as Wilmington, VT, on the east slopes of the Green mountain range, accumulating over 2' of snowfall, as was expected in isolated area. Several locales in the higher terrain of the northern Berkshires received upwards of one foot and a half of snowfall. Final Grade: B+

Very difficult forecast for this past weekend's storm turned out pretty well, with the notable exception of the hills of northeastern CT, southern Worcester county (3-6" forecast probably should have been 1-3") and the lowest terrain of the CT river valley in Mass, where 3-6" was forecast and some areas received under an inch. However, the general 1-2 feet with isolated areas of over 2' verified well across the higher terrain to the north and west. The hills of northern Worcester county and northwestern CT also worked out. B+ effort. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../major-long...

Yea, I can do without power disruptions 3 days before Xmas.

The closest to normal that I have been since 2017-2018 is 51", which is still at least 10" below normal. The only thing I can say for this period is that I have avoided a true, epic ratter, since I got that big event in December of 2019 that some of the area had precip type issues in....so while I haven't had a brutally awful season, its been death by a thousand paper cuts because they have all been subpar and frustrating. Its bee four consecutive years between about 44 and 51"...rinse, repeat Groundhog day.

I hope the winds fails tragically, as it usually does. I have no use for power disruptions or property damage.

I would be shocked if this intense round of blocking is a one-off....there should be more down the road. Maybe not this extreme, but I don't think its +++NAO the rest of the way, either.

If January does suck, I think I will be pretty resigned to the first stretch of five consecutive well below normal snowfall seasons for MBY on record dating back to at least 1956. The regression crap is def. put to bed for me....this is the 1980s. That would be 7/8 below normal seasons dating back to 2015.

One thing I am guilty of this month is being too reactionary to the medium range guidance at like days 6-10. I wish I had remained more reserved in the tone of some of my updates.

Well, the month isn't over yet and long season ahead. I only posted that because this visceral reaction that all of the forecasts were crap just because it didn't snow isn't always fair. If I blow January, then I'll be the first to admit it. Hopefully something shows up soon.

This threat was always it in my eyes....there was never a heck of a lot more to talk about, so now that this is over with, we are meteorologically moribund into early January. Sucks and blows.

As did the month of December.

Oh, ok...gotcha.

+.5" early on Saturday 1.5" on the season.

@MaestrobjwaYou do realize that I am not claiming that next year will be a 2009-2010 redux, correct? I merely mentioned it because it was a strong el Nino that wasn't obscene.

BS....I know you are butt-hurt like we all are, but this thread is just as humming leading up to a blizzard in March as it is in January.

Strongly advise against punting first half of January...yes, there should be a big, bad, ugly thaw after the first week, but I think shit is going to go down during the rest of the month.

I didn't expect ORH to be getting totally shafted. Agree.

Did BOX release a final map of totals?

If ORH gets shut out, then yes...worse than I had thought. Still a couple of weeks left.

He had a +NAO December, so there is that...glad that I didn't copy him, like he accused me of. Otherwise, he has had the right idea....we were both RNA December.

You can't get that specific...no one does. That is fluky shit ORH through my area has been porked. But I have generally had the pattern right, which is all I hope for.