40/70 Benchmark

There is a reason that January averages more snowfall than December. I agree that the cold looks to continue loading to the west...no shock, there.

I didn't imply that it was frigid, but the point is that somewhat above average at our latitude during peak climo is not necessarily a deal breaker, as you implied it was.

I never said that....you know yourself that a weak el nino is out money ENSO phase. I was speaking more on a personal level because the last several years have been fine for most of SNE TBH...especially your area. But I am not "out" on this season. I still think that there will be to hell to pay at some point in January.

I've seen much more intimidating "torches"...

I don't think many can argue that from the vantage point of MBY, it would be good to shake things up. Its been several seasons of managing to miss out, whether it be in a mesoscale sense, or more synoptically speaking. Its really not up for debate at this point.

I disagree. I would still rather take my chances with el nino....one of those two seasons was hardly an el nino, and the other one was more like a la nina. I personally feel that this cold, la nina like Pacific feel has been going on longer than the recent stretch of la nina seasons...which makes sense give that were in the -PDO portion of the multidecadal cycle.

This is starting to feel like the Red Sox Facebook alert articles notifying you every 5 minutes of the key FAs that they are "in on"....

Yea, late 90's probably a better comparison for me, too...more similar to the current stretch in that while there were no true ratters, it was still several more moderately shitty years in a row.

This period is comparable to the late 80s/early 90s for me in the sense that I have had 4 consecutive subpar seasons..a fifth this year would beat it. However, 88-92 was worse from a snow/season perspective, since it had 3 ratters with under 30". I have managed to avoid that this time. Just moderately below average seasons strung together.

I'm ready for el nino, too. Its not overrated when you are going on a fifth consecutive season of suck. Deck needs shuffling from my perspective.

But the CMC nailed the non blizzard, though...we knew that would happen because it entailed all of us bending over and grabbing our collective ankles.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/mild-rainy-friday-before-slight-storm.html

Mild & Rainy Friday Before Slight Storm Threat Just after Christmas No White Christmas for Most of Southern New England But Travel Delays Still Expected It has become clear over the past several days that the worst nightmare for travelers across the northeast will not be realized, as the severe winter storm that has been expected to develop for quite come time now looks to track too far to the west for significant snowfall across the region. This is due to the fact that not only is the PNA ridge displaced to the west, just off the west coast as opposed to over the Rocky mountains, but the polar vortex became stationed over western Canada, as opposed to becoming lodged just underneath the block closer to James Bay in Canada. This allows the storm system to dig far enough to the west that it initially gains enough latitude to drive enough warm air into the region to ensure a mainly rain event, before becoming lodged underneath the block. However, while this does mean that the east coast will not be dealing with a blizzard in the days leading up to Christmas, there will still be very adverse weather conditions across many portions of the country. Thus the most prudent course of action would still be to preferably fly out today and no later tomorrow in order to avoid potential delays. Looking Ahead As we peer beyond Christmas and into the holiday week, there is a slight chance for a winter storm along about Tuesday, however, a phase of the two parcels of energy remains exceedingly unlikely given the more progressive nature of the flow in the wake of the major pre-Christmas storm system. The European suite was the most ominous with a near miss: The Canadian ensemble less emphatic: And the GFS remains very benign with the two streams very far apart in a very progressive flow:

Absolutely perfect...if its not snow or a major hurricane, let me sleep.

Yea, I can see panicking about early January...that is reasonable.

Frustrating start not withstanding, I do not see a reason to cancel winter. People are scared to death of 1989-1990 scenario, in which blocking never returned...okay, so worst case I finish just below average again like I have the past four seasons. Still not a rat.

Even with a strong PV, I do not buy that the pig is going to camp out over AK long term...maybe blocking doesn't return in January, but that doesn't mean SNE is cooked. TBH, I have been saying all December just give me a very cold Canada, and run a train of SWs into it...I will take my chances with that IMBY. Blocking is likely to return...maybe its later than January...

Does a well coupled la nina necessarily mean a ratter en route? No. TBH, I have taken a break from long range stuff after some of the frustrating head fakes of late. I'll look again probably next week, but I am confident from everything I looked at preseason that this won't be a dud...at least not for New England. Maybe I'll need to revisit that in a couple of weeks, but cross that bridge.... Anyway, all of my stuff is judged as is....sure, I may revise my thoughts in season, but I don't touch that thesis from November....that is graded as is.

At least for out area, anyway...

I expected that more the second week of the month, so again...timing could def. be off.

I am about as confident as I will ever be with respect to anything that we will have a very mild stretch this month (January)....probably milder than Jan 2015...maybe more like 2005. But I will also go down with the ship regarding January offering some great volatility and downright wild potential. Perhaps my timing is off and it gets pushed to February, and I mix the months up, similar to what I did in 2021....this season isn't a ratter, though.

I think the initial post of this thread just about exactly one month ago captured it pretty well....hopefully things work out next month. I am surprised that the coast couldn't even muster one noteworthy snowfall from a SWFE...I didn't think it would be that shitty, but that is some bad luck mixed in. The mean H5 pattern certainly doesn't scream "virtually snowless in Boston".

Ah, the good 'ole days....back when it snowed in December and my area wasn't always dinning on scraps.

One jackpot I will be happy to concede is a grid-threatening, warm wind event the day before Xmas eve.