40/70 Benchmark

Thanks for that graphic....I hadn't realized. Will use it.

If it remains impervious to the shear, then sure....tough to make that call, though. Obviously they should prepare for cat 4.

Truth be told, they probably are, too, but the fact of the matter is that lowering it isn't worth the risk of conveying the wrong message and having some let their guard down. Its relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things...

Right as it was emerging from Cuba earlier today, I thought that the disruption of its intensification may have meant that we wouldn't see an EWRC prior to LF in FL, however, it actually seems that said land interaction helped to trigger the cycle...which can happen. I am probably in the minority, but given that we are in the early stages of an EWRC with a large outer eye, shear is already beginning to impinge on the circulation and LF is a mere ~24 hrs away, I don't think that it will get much stronger. Main thing to watch for is how much the wind field can expand prior to LF, which will exacerbate surge. I had 130mph on my First Call as a peak intensity, and was nervous that was too conservative, but I hedged lower after seeing how long it took to get going in the NW Caribbean and factoring in the tenor of the season.

Looking at this, its def an EWRC IMO.

Sometimes interaction with land can help trigger them.

Its probably still trying to resolve some structural deficiencies that resulted from interaction with the higher terrain of Cuba.

Well, 1995-1996 was a la nina, 2009-2010 was a strong el nino.....

I think the interaction with Cuba was paradoxically bad news for FL because while weakening the system in the short term, it effectively expands the wind field like an EWRC would have and we are now less likely to see the max sustained winds lowered due to an actual EWRC. Just my two cents.....someone on the west coast of FL is in trouble.

I vaguely remember that....numerous trees down in Wilmington. I home in my aunt's neighborhood that a tree go right through the roof.

Same page...my original thought on Friday was SW FL, and I may have overcorrected a bit yesterday to just N of TB.

Exactly.

No, I mean...its fair game to discuss and certainly relevant. I just have zero interest in what this does beyond FL....conditions don't look favorable for regeneration, and I'm not in the habit of tracking moist carcasses. Its going to bring rain to the se, I'm sure....WHOOP DE DOO. lol

I haven't really even considered it because I'm not really interested in that part of it. It was never an option up here, aside from remnant rains.

Yea, my only pause in a less than MH LF was it gaining too much latitude, but that is by the boards.

Get that PD 1 looking monstrosity out of the way now.

That was contingent on a further north track. The more southern LF changes things because it doesn't encounter the hostile conditions prior to LF.

Wow....that is crazy. Its like a giant swimming pool. I can't believe that its that shallow...

High solar flux isn't always a death knell for winter...2013-2014 was high solar. There are just so many factors.....

Yea, this is what I was referring to when I suggested that the eruption could lead to a warmer SH strat this winter.

The line are to delineate between more and less preferred regions for landfall, and the arrow adds emphasis.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html

Here is my best guess as of now.....incredibly tough call and low confidence. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html