40/70 Benchmark

Even last week, I said the threat period began AFTER THE 10TH, so this is for the most part valid. Maybe I should have left out the mention of a potential colder than initially assessed outcome for the month December.

I will admit that I was a little too quick to entertain the notion of a faster transition to a more favorable look than my original outlook implied. I do feel like I jumped the gun a bit on my update last week...but my overall ideas seem right on track and I am not concerned in the least.

Usually when this place gets like this, its wise to just scale back engagement until a concrete threat materializes.

....and I'm sure you could rest easy if we had a blizzard modeled at day 13....

Glad you went "all in" then!

What is uninspiring is the selective reading comprehension....I feel like it was always stressed how the first several days of the pattern change was tenuous for a lot of areas, and now that it isn't going to work out for said areas, fingers point.

And there is a change....we go from nothing happening to a pattern that favors the interior and higher elevation.

This is how I feel about most of December...mid Atlantic waits until after NY IMO.

Probably, but I still see a path to normalish.

Very true, but regardless, I think the higher end potential is beyond mid month....whether that be the 20th of the 28th.

We'll see...loooong way to go.

No, I agree with you. Its a valid threat.....just suspecting that the even higher end potential is beyond. Not meant to shift focus away from that thead...not even starting a thread haha

I was worried about a colder than forecast outcome with respect to December for about a week, but doesn't look to be the case....the NAO maybe a bit stronger than expected this month, but so is the RNA so far.

Looks about on target...

I don't mean a thread, I mean a blog update with more of a focus beyond mid month.

I'll probably do a post tomorrow introducing that higher end threat period in a general sense.

Just whipping through the EPS, it looks to me like the real higher-end potential is after about the 20th and towards Xmas, as the shift westward in forcing begins to manifest in the form of some ridging out west as the block also begins to mature. That period into January is when all hell could break lose.

How inspiring would you expect it to be for threats over 10 days out? The 10th-15th is fair game, but its more of a bonus period IMO.

I won't be surprised if we end up having to wait until past mid-month.....the return on these blocking patterns is often greater down the line when its weakening.

12/9 is a waste of time for me IMO...its either going to be mainly rain or too suppressed.

22.5

Maybe I did use a a model image of November temps to save time (not sure), but that wasn't a forecast composite and thus isn't plagarism. Not your tool or data, so no need to cite it. What gets me is you call me an idiot for not using some of your methods, such as sensible weather analogs, which I did decide that there was value in. So I start incorporating it by developing my own sensible composite, then I get accused of plagarism... how in the hell does someone win with you?? Anyone else can feel free to compare out forecasts and make their own mind up. This is ridiculous. As far as the NAO goes, the block is just developing and it's being negated by RNA in the early stages...that doesn't mean that the NAO is meaningless at baseline, as the graphic that I posted illustrates.

Again, I posted the link to the post in SEPTEMBER when I came up with that analog composite. Man, for someone seemingly so bright you sure are dense. If you would shut up for a second and actually look at my outlook, you would see it is not a reproduction of your's. I have a very wintery January in the east, albeit with a big thaw. I did use your ACE graphic of seasonal progression, which I cited and recommended you as a follow. I'm not sure why you are on this witch hunt...I am not trying to sell anything. I do this for myself, so I don't know why I would put all of that work in only to copy a forecast.

I am on the coast relative to you...even I have more marine influence than you do and he has much more than I do.

26.6