40/70 Benchmark
-
Posts
73,224 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
-
If the EURO is similar to the GEM, then I will be kind of excited, albeit guarded.
-
I think the deform would be nw of the clown map portrayal. That map has a 3-5-2001 vibe...
-
I am so sick of death bands being over you lol
-
Hey, 1996 was one of my December analogs....that outcome wouldn't surprise me...up and in.
-
Maybe hold off on the blog until tomorrow
-
Sorry, man...that sucks.
-
2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don't expect a super el nino....this is a periodicity to those and we aren't there yet, as we just had one 7 years ago. I think the upside is like a 2009-2010 type of strength. -
I don't expect an epic season, but I would be pretty surprised if we don't get "nailed"...or most of us, anyway.
-
I have later December and much of January with a nice Pacific, aside from the thaw, when we may have a piggish interlude to deal with.
-
I believe he is...
-
I think the cat has been out of the bag for a while now lol
-
True. That is fair. My bad....
-
Its emotion driven hyperbole.....there is a reason I said that the a white xmas near the coast was dubious. The Pac was always going to be relatively hostile in December.
-
Its not about the EURO suite, its about tropical forcing. I am confident that the pattern will turn more wintery. The month of December was expected to prominently feature RNA.
-
He may just have an emergency...like one of his 12 muts has rhea.
-
I just feel like the gap has closed between the two.
-
The real irony is that the bulldog of a low out west that is the initial fly in the ointment may be a the SW that sparks our first good threat in about 11-12 days. As far as the handling of the block...it looks like a compromise between what the GFS and EURO suite were advertising......initially, we do see the GFS scenario play out this week where they conjoin into a big ridge, but it doesn't last and ultimately the colder pattern will prevail.
-
Looks like the PNA gets less obnoxious (not favorable) by mid month, so that is when the watch begins....so in all fairness, I think the first 5-7 days of my original post 12/10 date will be uneventful.
-
December 2007....pretty good month, right....first warned event 12/13.
-
You have been level-headed and objective, but I do sense some panic from others.
-
Funny, you would think we are closing in on January with all of the whining and angst over this month.....but we still aren't even to the point at which December 1995 got going (12/9). Gotta step back and maintain perspective, despite some frustrating developments.
-
Ninjaed
-
Sucks the block gets delayed, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't change much IMO...it just lops the first several days off of the post 12/10 period, which were tenuous for coastal SNE, anyway. Pacific and Atlantic still look good after mid-month and I see a nice storm signal from about 12/17 to 12/19.
-
My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
40/70 Benchmark replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Totally fair enough. I wasn't sure who it was intended toward...I was just trying to clarify what I meant in pointing our that the NAO does in fact matter. But I also feel that your way of articulating it is better than simply saying that the NAO doesn't matter...that is also inaccurate and misleading. Didn't intend to sound defensive. -
My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
40/70 Benchmark replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The point is that on average a neg NAO pattern is colder than a positive NAO pattern. That is different than saying that the NAO is the vehicle for the delivery of the cold. That isn't what I intended to imply...not sure about anyone else.
