40/70 Benchmark

Check out November 1997....max SST anomalies and convective forcing is perfectly aligned just as the most intense storm systems stack and have the H5 capture the surface low.

Precisely. This is because you know to examine cyclones from the surface up through the upper levels of the atmosphere. The question that begs to be asked is why are we ignoring the upper levels of an ENSO event? Just as we appreciate the fact that immature extra tropical cyclones are vertically slanted to the northwest with height and factor that into the forecast, we also need to also do so with ENSO. The forecasters considering this El Niño to be an east based event just because of where the max sea surface temp anomalies are at the surface are ignoring the fact that this is an immature, poorly coupled event. It lacks the West-East Pacific pressure and SST Dipole to reach maturity just as some extra tropical cyclones lack the baroclinicity. You forecast storms differently when the upper levels are not aligned with the surface and you need to do with ENSO. We don't get big wind in pedestrian storms because we lack large gradients/baroclinicity.....well, that is why we lack the frequency and prominence of the WWB needed to fuel this El Niño, thus it remains a slanted, disfunctional and immature warm ENSO paradigm.

@Eskimo JoeHumor me for moment as I offer up a synoptic scale analogy, which is a theme in my Outlook. Say you had a powerful surface low off of the Delmarva, but you had an H85 low and over Hagerstown and and H7 low over West Virginia....what would your forecast be for DC?? Would you expect a huge snowfall....I mean, the surface low is off of the coast, to the east, right??

Did you read my work? None of that is true, other than a warming climate, but that doesn't mean its never going to snow again. It also means more moisture unavailable.

I am all for it....

Why are you pessimistic? This seasons is page out of the Mid Atlantic winter playbook.

Don implied to me earlier this fall that he didn't see a strongly positive NAO this year.

Thanks...last year was a great example of how chaotic snowfall is...it's subject to so much variance. Ostensibly, it looks as though I did an awful job last year, but it was actually one of my better efforts underneath the hood, so to speak...the results just weren't there. This as opposed to my first effort back in 2014-2015...everyone thought that I nailed it going for a huge snowfall season in SNE, but its was luck via smoke and mirrors because I was going big -NAO/AO and the opposite was the case. Only thing I got right was the weak-modoki/big SNE snow correlation. Had I incorporated the solar stuff that I do now, back then, I would not have called for the big Atlantic blocking due to the descending solar. Just like I was have been much more tame in 2015-2016 and 2018-2019 if I had been using RONI and MEI like I do now. Its. not about getting everything right, but rather learning from when it goes wrong because it will.

It's funny how some of spend several months at one another's throats arguing over the most subtle of nuances, only to realize that we essentially agree on the big picture @snowman19

Genuine skill and self-esteem is usually positively correlated with humility. It tells you something about the guys who are always on the offensive....they lack either one or both. Look at a guy like Don Sutherland.....should be top 5 on everyone's follow list.

Seems about right to me.

Funny, I guess 1979-1980 technically counts as an el Nino now, but I didn't use it. I feel like that is a recent development due to changing climo.

Finally read this after emerging from my outlook sabbatical....agree with the outlook...right down to strong el Nino acting moderate. But I think your ENSO orientation is off....not sure how you have 91-92 as a Modoki. It certainly was not...read mine and you will see why, as I spend alot of time on that el Nino.

Hopefully we can use that for a storm total map come February.

22.8/22

It doesn't matter for this year. Solar wind and geomagnetic energy don't really get going for about a year after solar peak....its not instant. Like most things in weather, there is a lag. It would likely be important for next year, though.

I'm going to convert all of those error percentages to SD in fairly short order.

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. He would always ask me about the weather in an effort to redirect me when I was upset because he knew that was always a safe place for me. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

Thanks...going to include it this year, as it is part of a very strong consensus.

Kinda daring with smart phones and social media these days....

Interesting that the spread is for more negative NAO in December, and its a large spread for such short term.

@Stormchaserchuck1Do you have the SST plot that goes with your forumula?

Clearly the trend is for +NAO December and negative NAO February, but can anyone elaborate on how exactly to interpret this graphic? Does the bar extension represent spread?