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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It definitely won't be as cold in the east due to the PDO, agreed, but that doesn't necessarily preclude a good snow-stretch. I get that the PDO is most highly correlated to temp late in the season, but it's also unwise to ignore what will be a very disturbed polar domain. Most of the shitty snow years in your data set had a very strong PV and given that we won't see a record trough down to Baja like we did last year, that will matter.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    @512highHaving the PV near Hudson's Bay is just about ideal for NE snowfall.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the only reason it wasn't higher on my list is the PDO. I also doubt the NAO finishes THAT negative....but it's great from an ENSO standpoint.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The hints of the PV dropping IVOF HB have me absolutely ready to derobe and just lather up.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh yea...."sne area gonna get alot of snow after NY just you wait. Those who say no don't say right info"
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see George slowly reverting back like a werewolf after sundown...each wintery run sprouts a bit more hair on his back and lengthening weenie-claws lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's baaaaaaaacccckkkkk
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is a great list because you can see the strong dichotomy with respect to the polar domain...the years that made a good come back looked alot like this year. The average is pretty useless IMO....its like taking the ensemble mean when half of the members phase an event and half don't.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, puff, puff pass on that...I'd rather risk precip type issues.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, fair enough. I don't care to have the heart of the cold personally...not to distract from the fact that these SSW events are not fail safe. There is risk.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we can put to bed the idea that Tonga was going to cause a ++AO...at least for those few who weren't convinced after last year.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The frigid patterns tend to promote more CJs, too.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is of more benefit to February.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup. Right on cue...zero changes.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why would you want the PV lobe over NE? I have no interest in January 2004.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    If we ever 5 PPD weenies, then he would need a new outlet lol
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    My 12/25 to Jan 8 window may work out, afterall. Now we need to watch exactly how it plays out because the devil is in the details with these things, but I have a feeling all hell will break loose for February.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Two down, three to go?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is expected...the pattern will shift serviceable, not great, for a couple of weeks before another mild stretch.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Accurate.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny, max snow increases overlay just about exactly with the largest temp iump.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be ideal down near HB.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with this. I do not expect a cold month and won't be suprised if it ends up underwhelming in terms of eastern snowfall.... I think it will be serviceable in the mean.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand exactly how is manifests as far as dictating who benefits, but I do understand how to determine whether one will take place on a seasonal level. I've done it several times now over the past decade and look to again this year.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, ok...great event, I just didn't view it as a blizzard. Not to get into semantics....
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